Europe - Champions League
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by Devesh Jaganath in Champions League Predictions
Tuesday night will see Benfica playing host to Monaco in the second leg of their Champions League knockout phase play-off tie at Estadio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica. As Aguias lead the tie 1-0 after beating Les Rouge et Blanc at Stade Louis II in the first leg last week. The winner of this tie will face either Liverpool or Barcelona in the round of 16. Check out our match prediction below!
Benfica have won both their matches against his opponent this season, beating them 3-2 in November before last week’s victory. The last team to beat the same opponent three times in the same season in the Champions League was Barcelona against PSG back in 2014-15. If Monaco fail to win this fixture, Benfica will become the team they have faced most often in Europe without managing a victory (W0 D1 L3).
Given the historical record in this contest, it’s unsurprising to see the hosts installed as the clear favourites - let’s get into the key stats.
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The Best Betting Odds for Benfica Lisbon v Monaco Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.85 | 4 | 3.7 |
|
|
1.83 | 4.2 | 4 |
|
|
2.05 | 2.8 | 3.6 |
|
|
1.93 | 4.3 | 3.73 |
|
|
1.93 | 4.3 | 3.73 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Benfica Lisbon and Monaco?
Our prediction for the Benfica Lisbon vs Monaco match is: over 2.5.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 18/02/2025 between Benfica Lisbon and Monaco in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 67.12% for a win of Benfica Lisbon against Monaco with odds of 2.05 at Ladbrokes.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Benfica Lisbon vs Monaco is 14.55% with odds of 4.3 at 1xbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 18.33% chance ⭐ for a win of Monaco vs Benfica Lisbon with odds of 4.1 at Unibet.
Benfica Lisbon - Monaco Prediction and Best Odds:
| Benfica Lisbon Monaco Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Benfica Lisbon wins | 67.12% | 2.05 at Ladbrokes |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | |
| Both Team To Score | 56.25% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : Benfica Lisbon/Benfica Lisbon | 34.76% | 3 at Betsson |
Benfica Lisbon vs Monaco Form
Benfica Lisbon and Monaco Last Matches
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Feb 2025 - Liga Portugal
12 Feb 2025 - Champions League
8 Feb 2025 - Liga Portugal
2 Feb 2025 - Liga Portugal
29 Jan 2025 - Champions League
25 Jan 2025 - Liga Portugal
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Feb 2025 - Liga Portugal
21 Jan 2025 - Champions League
17 Jan 2025 - Liga Portugal
8 Jan 2025 - Portugal League Cup
4 Jan 2025 - Liga Portugal
23 Dec 2024 - Liga Portugal
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Feb 2025 - Liga Portugal
12 Feb 2025 - Champions League
2 Feb 2025 - Liga Portugal
29 Jan 2025 - Champions League
25 Jan 2025 - Liga Portugal
14 Jan 2025 - Taca de Portugal
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Feb 2025 - Ligue 1
12 Feb 2025 - Champions League
7 Feb 2025 - Ligue 1
1 Feb 2025 - Ligue 1
29 Jan 2025 - Champions League
25 Jan 2025 - Ligue 1
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Feb 2025 - Ligue 1
12 Feb 2025 - Champions League
1 Feb 2025 - Ligue 1
25 Jan 2025 - Ligue 1
21 Jan 2025 - Champions League
18 Dec 2024 - Ligue 1
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Feb 2025 - Ligue 1
29 Jan 2025 - Champions League
17 Jan 2025 - Ligue 1
14 Jan 2025 - French Cup
10 Jan 2025 - Ligue 1
5 Jan 2025 - Trophée des Champions
Benfica Lisbon vs Monaco Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
100 %
0 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
12 Feb 2025 - Champions League
27 Nov 2024 - Champions League
Benfica Lisbon - Monaco: Form Analysis
Benfica enter this match with a one-goal cushion thanks to a 48th-minute goal by Vangelis Pavlidis in the first leg which proved to be the deciding moment of the match.
As Aguias now have a record of five wins, one draw and three defeats in their nine matches in the Champions League and have won each of their last three away games in the competition.
The hosts also won their Liga Portugal match against Santa Clara over the weekend, which extended their current win streak to five matches across all competitions.
However, Benfica have failed to win any of their last three Champions League home games!
Meanwhile, Monaco were right in the contest last week until they were reduced to 10 men early in the second half, which set them firmly on the back foot for the remainder of the match.
However, despite playing over 30 minutes a man-light, facing 23 shots on goal, six of which were on target, and having just 44% of possession, they still managed to keep the deficit to only one.
The visitors secured a resounding 7-1 home victory over Nantes last weekend, but they are winless in their last six away games and have won just one of their last 10 outings across all competitions.
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Benfica Lisbon against Monaco Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 5 - 3 - 2
Benfica Lisbon & Monaco Squad Analysis
Vangelis Pavlidis will undoubtedly be the man Benfica look to in attack this week. The Greek international has scored six times in this competition, averaging a goal every 107 minutes.
With Angel Di Maria now ruled out until next month, Pavlidis will be joined in attack by Kerem Akturkoglu, who netted in three consecutive matches between matchday one and three.
Tomas Araujo sustained an injury in the first leg which could open the door for youngster Leandro Santos to make his Champions League debut this week. The 19-year-old won 54% of his duels in his first start for the club over the weekend.
Al-Musrati was sent off last week and will serve his one-match suspension in this match!
Additionally, Al-Musrati's midfield partner from last week, Denis Zakaria, is also suspended due to an accumulation of yellows. Thus the visitors will be forced into a reshuffle in defensive midfield with youngster Soungoutou Magassa likely to feature alongside Lamine Camara
In just five league matches since joining from Sturm Graz last month, Mika Biereth has already netted seven goals, including his second hat-trick for his new employers over the past weekend.
Most goals and assists
Benfica Lisbon
Monaco
V. Pavlidis
(19 Goals)
M. Biereth
(12 Goals)
V. Pavlidis
(8 Assists)
M. Akliouche
(10 Assists)
Benfica Lisbon - Monaco Key Points
- Each of Benfica’s last six home games have ended with over 2.5 goals.
- Benfica have scored two or more goals in eight of their last 10 home matches across all competitions.
- Seven of Monaco's last eight away matches have ended with over 2.5 goals.
- Monaco have conceded two or more goals in three of their four away games in this competition.
- Monaco have only kept one clean sheet in their last 10 away games across all competitions.
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Our Benfica Lisbon vs Monaco Prediction
While last week’s matchup ended with only a single goal being scored, much of the reason for that was due to Monaco being reduced to 10 men, which saw them forced to defend for the majority of the second half to keep the deficit to one.
The visitors will now have to throw caution to the wind to level proceedings, but that could leave them vulnerable in defence, especially given that they are without their preferred central midfield pairing in Al-Musrati and Zakaria. Therefore, our Benfica vs Monaco prediction is over 2.5.
Benfica Lisbon vs Monaco - Other Interesting Predictions
Benfica wins the match
Benfica are on a five-match winning streak across all competitions and have scored two or more goals in each of their last four home games. Monaco are winless in their last five on the road and have won just one of their last 10 outings across all competitions.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Benfica Lisbon Monaco
| Benfica Lisbon vs Monaco | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica Lisbon wins | 1.73 | 1.85 | +6.9% |
| Draw | 4.1 | 4 | -2.4% |
| Monaco wins | 4.33 | 3.7 | -14.5% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Benfica Lisbon is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 6.9% since opening
- The probability of this result was 57.8% and is now 54.1% (-3.7%)
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Benfica Lisbon vs Monaco match : Frequently asked questions
The Champions League match between Benfica and Monaco will be played on February 18 at 20:00 GMT.
The Champions League match between Benfica and Monaco will take place at Estadio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica in Lisbon.
The Champions League match between Benfica and Monaco will be broadcast live on TNT Sports in the UK.
Alternatively, you can keep up to the minute with all the action using our Champions League livescore tool.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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