Germany - Bundesliga
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by Sridhar in Bundesliga Predictions
It’s a new chapter of Der Klassiker as Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund meet in a matchday 29 fixture of the Bundesliga season on Saturday. This match at the Allianz Arena between the league-leading Bavarians and the eighth-placed Der BVB comes with our prediction of a home win. The hosts have 68 points and are leading Leverkusen by six points, while the visitors have 41 points and are still three points behind European qualification spots.
Both teams are coming off losses in the midweek Champions League quarter-final first legs. While Bayern were beaten at home by Inter (2-1), Dortmund were thrashed away by Barcelona (4-0). The upcoming second legs become a factor for this match, although history suggests Bayern have to be careful of taking things for granted.
Dortmund have surprised their rivals a few times in recent years, but will that be the case again here? Read further to find more about our predictions.
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The Best Betting Odds for Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.5 | 5.25 | 5.25 |
|
|
1.5 | 5 | 5.5 |
|
|
1.7 | 3.1 | 4.8 |
|
|
1.43 | 5.2 | 5.9 |
|
|
1.47 | 5.37 | 6.12 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund?
Our prediction for the Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund match is: Bayern Munich wins the match.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 12/04/2025 between Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund in Bundesliga :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 51.84% for a win of Bayern Munich against Borussia Dortmund with odds of 1.7 at Ladbrokes.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund is 16.26% with odds of 5.4 at Stake.
- Our prediction model gives a 31.9% chance ⭐ for a win of Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich with odds of 6.55 at Betwinner.
Bayern Munich - Borussia Dortmund Prediction and Best Odds:
| Bayern Munich Borussia Dortmund Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich wins | 51.84% | 1.7 at Ladbrokes |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.18% | |
| Both Team To Score | 53.33% | 1.55 at Betway |
| Half-time / Full-time : Bayern Munich/Bayern Munich | 27.28% | 2.25 at Betsson |
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund Form
Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund's standings in the Bundesliga
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
68 | 28 | 21 | 5 | 2 | 54 |
|
9
|
41 | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 9 |
Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Apr 2025 - Champions League
4 Apr 2025 - Bundesliga
29 Mar 2025 - Bundesliga
15 Mar 2025 - Bundesliga
11 Mar 2025 - Champions League
8 Mar 2025 - Bundesliga
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Apr 2025 - Champions League
29 Mar 2025 - Bundesliga
8 Mar 2025 - Bundesliga
5 Mar 2025 - Champions League
23 Feb 2025 - Bundesliga
18 Feb 2025 - Champions League
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Apr 2025 - Bundesliga
15 Mar 2025 - Bundesliga
11 Mar 2025 - Champions League
28 Feb 2025 - Bundesliga
15 Feb 2025 - Bundesliga
12 Feb 2025 - Champions League
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Apr 2025 - Champions League
5 Apr 2025 - Bundesliga
30 Mar 2025 - Bundesliga
15 Mar 2025 - Bundesliga
12 Mar 2025 - Champions League
8 Mar 2025 - Bundesliga
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Mar 2025 - Bundesliga
8 Mar 2025 - Bundesliga
4 Mar 2025 - Champions League
22 Feb 2025 - Bundesliga
19 Feb 2025 - Champions League
8 Feb 2025 - Bundesliga
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Apr 2025 - Champions League
5 Apr 2025 - Bundesliga
15 Mar 2025 - Bundesliga
12 Mar 2025 - Champions League
1 Mar 2025 - Bundesliga
15 Feb 2025 - Bundesliga
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
33 %
17 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
30 Nov 2024 - Bundesliga
30 Mar 2024 - Bundesliga
4 Nov 2023 - Bundesliga
1 Apr 2023 - Bundesliga
8 Oct 2022 - Bundesliga
23 Apr 2022 - Bundesliga
Bayern Munich - Borussia Dortmund: Form Analysis
A 2-1 loss to Inter Milan at home in the Champions League on Tuesday was Bayern’s first defeat in four matches in all competitions. They have the second leg coming up next week, and with the tie still in the balance, there could be some nervous glances in the Bayern dugout.
That said, the Bavarians have won their last two league matches and have a six-point lead to protect. With Leverkusen stepping up their pursuit, a slip here could make things difficult in the coming weeks. Thankfully for Bayern, they have 11 wins at Allianz Arena from the last 12 league games.
Bayern failed to win the last two matches against Dortmund.
Is that enough to raise hopes for the visitors? They need more than just hope after they were thrashed 4-0 away by Barcelona on Wednesday in the Champions League quarter-final. The only positive from that result is they may not be too worried about the upcoming second leg.
That would place them in a position to worry about the Bundesliga, where they still have an outside chance to qualify for Europe. That would be the least priority for Niko Kovac, who has won two league matches in a row. Their away record gives nothing to be confident about, though, alternating wins and losses in their last six matches. These six league trips ended with a 4-1 win at Freiburg, so can they break that sequence here?
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Bayern Munich against Borussia Dortmund Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 3 - 4 - 1 - 2
Missing players
M. Neuer
A. Pavlesic
M. Schmitt
DefenderT. Buchmann
D. Upamecano
H. Ito
MidfielderA. Davies
J. Musiala
ForwardW. Mike
N. Schlotterbeck
MidfielderM. Sabitzer
Bayern Munich & Borussia Dortmund Squad Analysis
Manuel Neuer had a muscle tear, and Bayern are unlikely to rush him back to action, although he’s made good progress in the training. Young stopper Jonas Urbig could be about to have his first experience of facing Dortmund.
Joshua Kimmich playing in front of the defenders in the 4-2-3-1 formation could be crucial for the hosts. He has 164 tackles to his name this season, to go with a 92.8% successful pass rate.
Michael Olise could be looking to add to his assist count.
The winger has been in stunning form since making his switch to Bayern in the summer and has 10 assists to his name, joint-top of the list in the league. Leading the line would be Harry Kane with a league-leading 23 goals to his name. The ones missing out for the hosts would be Jamal Musiala, Hiroki Ito, and Alphonso Davies.
Dortmund have a bigger worry at the back, as Nico Schlotterbeck has been ruled out for the season. Yan Couto is available after serving a suspension, but Marcel Sabitzer is another absentee with a knee injury.
Dortmund will expect goals from their star striker Serhou Guirassy, who has 15 to his name. The visitors are likely to start in a 4-1-4-1 formation, with Karim Adeyemi and Jamie Gittens manning the wings. Both players scored a goal each in Dortmund’s last league win.
Most goals and assists
Bayern Munich
Borussia Dortmund
H. Kane
(34 Goals)
H. Kane
(12 Assists)
, 
M. Olise
(12 Assists)
P. Gross
(11 Assists)
Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund Stats in Bundesliga
Bayern Munich - Borussia Dortmund Key Points
- Bayern have 11 wins from their last 14 league matches.
- At the Allianz Arena, Bayern have bagged 11 wins from their last 12 home matches in the Bundesliga.
- Dortmund lost two of their last three away matches in all competitions.
- Dortmund have lost two of their last four matches, home and away, in the Bundesliga.
- Dortmund’s coach Niko Kovac has lost seven of his eight Bundesliga matches against Bayern with different sides.
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Our Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction
There’s a lot riding on this match for both Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund. The hosts have allowed Leverkusen to come closer to them, and a loss here could potentially cut their lead to three points. Dortmund have shown signs of revival under Kovac but are still far from where they want to be. Even European qualification looks tough on current form, although they are just three points outside the spots. They are likely to push Bayern close, but not close enough to get points. Our Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund prediction is Bayern Munich wins the match.
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund - Other Interesting Predictions
Thomas Muller to score a goal anytime
Thomas Muller is already a Bayern legend, and he will write another chapter to it if he scores this weekend. The Bayern icon will be leaving the club at the end of the season, and if he plays, it will be a record 29th Der Klassiker. Is it time to crown it with a goal? He has certainly got going with a goal against Inter, so it could be a dream finish to his last career Klassiker. Back Muller to score a goal.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Bayern Munich Borussia Dortmund
| Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich wins | 1.36 | 1.5 | +10.3% |
| Draw | 4.75 | 5.25 | +10.5% |
| Borussia Dortmund wins | 8 | 5.25 | -34.4% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Bayern Munich is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 10.3% since opening
- The probability of this result was 73.5% and is now 66.7% (-6.9%)
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Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund match : Frequently asked questions
The Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund German Bundesliga match will be shown live on Sky Deutschland and in the UK you can watch it on Sky Sports Football.
You can also follow the game through our live scores. Check out our German Bundesliga Livescore page!
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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