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by Steve Ashfield in Champions League Predictions
Barcelona are attempting to reach the Champions League semi-finals for the first time in six years. Wednesday sees then play Borussia Dortmund at home in the first leg of their quarter-final tie. Can Barca get a lead to take to Dortmund? Read our match prediction.
The Spanish club are currently four points clear at the top of La Liga. This is their second successive Champions League quarter-final. 2025 marks ten years since they last won this competition. The winners of this match will play either Bayern Munich or Inter in the last four.
Borussia Dortmund were the losing finalists in last season's Champions League. The Prussians are eighth in the German Bundesliga and may need to win this season's Champions League to play in it next season. As you will read in the form section of this preview, the two clubs have already met once in this season's Champions League and that game was a real thriller. Will we see another on Wednesday?
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The Best Betting Odds for Barcelona v Borussia Dortmund Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.33 | 5.5 | 7.5 |
|
|
1.3 | 6 | 9.5 |
|
|
1.3 | 5.75 | 8 |
|
|
1.31 | 6 | 8.5 |
|
|
1.36 | 5.8 | 8.23 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Barcelona and Borussia Dortmund?
Our prediction for the Barcelona vs Borussia Dortmund match is: Half Time: Barcelona, Full Time: Barcelona.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 09/04/2025 between Barcelona and Borussia Dortmund in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 57.89% for a win of Barcelona against Borussia Dortmund with odds of 1.36 at 1xbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Barcelona vs Borussia Dortmund is 18.29% with odds of 6.4 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 23.82% chance ⭐ for a win of Borussia Dortmund vs Barcelona with odds of 9.5 at Betfred.
Barcelona - Borussia Dortmund Prediction and Best Odds:
| Barcelona Borussia Dortmund Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Barcelona wins | 57.89% | 1.36 at 1xbet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.04% | |
| Both Team To Score | 52.08% | 1.67 at Vbet |
| Half-time / Full-time : Barcelona/Barcelona | 32.46% | 1.99 at Vbet |
Barcelona vs Borussia Dortmund Form
Barcelona and Borussia Dortmund Last Matches
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Apr 2025 - LaLiga
2 Apr 2025 - Copa del Rey
30 Mar 2025 - LaLiga
27 Mar 2025 - LaLiga
16 Mar 2025 - LaLiga
11 Mar 2025 - Champions League
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Apr 2025 - LaLiga
30 Mar 2025 - LaLiga
27 Mar 2025 - LaLiga
11 Mar 2025 - Champions League
2 Mar 2025 - LaLiga
25 Feb 2025 - Copa del Rey
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 Apr 2025 - Copa del Rey
16 Mar 2025 - LaLiga
5 Mar 2025 - Champions League
22 Feb 2025 - LaLiga
9 Feb 2025 - LaLiga
6 Feb 2025 - Copa del Rey
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Apr 2025 - Bundesliga
30 Mar 2025 - Bundesliga
15 Mar 2025 - Bundesliga
12 Mar 2025 - Champions League
8 Mar 2025 - Bundesliga
4 Mar 2025 - Champions League
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Mar 2025 - Bundesliga
8 Mar 2025 - Bundesliga
4 Mar 2025 - Champions League
22 Feb 2025 - Bundesliga
19 Feb 2025 - Champions League
8 Feb 2025 - Bundesliga
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Apr 2025 - Bundesliga
15 Mar 2025 - Bundesliga
12 Mar 2025 - Champions League
1 Mar 2025 - Bundesliga
15 Feb 2025 - Bundesliga
11 Feb 2025 - Champions League
Barcelona vs Borussia Dortmund Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
67 %
33 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
11 Dec 2024 - Champions League
27 Nov 2019 - Champions League
17 Sep 2019 - Champions League
Barcelona - Borussia Dortmund: Form Analysis
Barcelona finished second in the league phase with six wins, a draw and a single loss in their first game away at Monaco. One of their wins was a 3-2 victory at Borussia Dortmund, leading three times in that match.
Finishing second took them straight into the last 16 where Barca defeated Benfica 4-1 on aggregate, winning both legs. They are yet to lose a match this year, last being beaten in December of last year.
Barcelona are on a long unbeaten run.
Their unbeaten run is up to 22 games but their last match was a 1-1 home draw with Real Betis after taking an early lead. That draw ended a run of seven successive wins.
Borussia Dortmund have shown better form in the Champions League this season than the German Bundesliga. They finished tenth in the league phase with five wins and three defeats. The last 16 saw them beat Sporting 3-0 on aggregate.
That took them into a quarter-final against Lille.and that was won 3-2 on aggregate but needed to come from behind to win the second leg. Dortmund have won three of the last four matches they have played.
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Barcelona against Borussia Dortmund Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 1 - 3
Formation : 4 - 2 - 1 - 3
Missing players
M. Ter Stegen
MidfielderM. Bernal
M. Casado
D. Olmo
N. Schlotterbeck
MidfielderM. Sabitzer
Barcelona & Borussia Dortmund Squad Analysis
Barcelona will be looking to build a lead to take to Dortmund for the second leg. The fact that they have already won in Dortmund this season will make them even more confident of reaching the last four.
Raphinha is the top scorer in this season's Champions League with 11 goals. Barca wanted to ensure he was fit to try and add to that impressive total and rested him at the weekend. He is fully expected to return to the starting line-up for this game.
Lewandowski faces the club where he first made his name.
Robert Lewandowski will be fit to face his former club. He's scored nine goals in this season's Champions League so Dortmund really need to be at their defensive best for this match. Missing for the home side will be Dani Olmo with Inigo Martinez doubtful.
Borussia Dortmund have already lost once in Spain this season, being beaten 5-2 at Real Madrid. Only two of their last 12 away games have seen them keep a clean sheet. They will be without Marcel Sabitzer for this first leg so that will make life even tougher in midfield.
Serhou Guirassy was rested at the weekend and will be a vital player for them. He scored twice against Barcelona in the league phase and has scored ten Champions League goals this season, only Raphinha has more.
Most goals and assists
Barcelona
Borussia Dortmund
R. Lewandowski
(36 Goals)
L. Yamal
(15 Assists)
P. Gross
(12 Assists)
Barcelona - Borussia Dortmund Key Points
- Barcelona are unbeaten in their last 22 league and cup games.
- Barcelona have already beaten Dortmund once in this season's Champions League.
- Dortmund have only won one of their last three games.
- Barcelona have won eight of their last nine Champions League fixtures.
- Barcelona have only lost one of their last ten Champions League home games.
- Four of Barcelona's last five wins have seen them ahead at half and full time.
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Our Barcelona vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction
Barcelona have been in impressive form in this season's Champions League. Eight of their last nine games in this competition have been won, the other drawn. Their wins include a 3-2 away victory at Borussia Dortmund in the league phase.
Borussia Dortmund are bidding to reach their second successive Champions League semi-final, perhaps even against Bayern Munich. They face a tough task in this game and lost 3-1 away to Barcelona six years ago. Our main Barcelona v Borussia Dortmund prediction is Half Time: Barcelona, Full Time: Barcelona.
Barcelona vs Borussia Dortmund - Other Interesting Predictions
Ferran Torres to score
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Barcelona Borussia Dortmund
| Barcelona vs Borussia Dortmund | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona wins | 1.4 | 1.33 | -5.0% |
| Draw | 4.75 | 5.5 | +15.8% |
| Borussia Dortmund wins | 7.5 | 7.5 | 0% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Barcelona is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 5.0% since opening
- The probability of this result was 71.4% and is now 75.2% (3.8%)
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Barcelona vs Borussia Dortmund match : Frequently asked questions
This is the home leg for Barcelona in this Champions League quarter-final. That means the game will be played at the Estadi Olimpica Lluis Companys in Barcelona.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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