South America - Copa Libertadores
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Atletico MG vs CA River Plate (ARG) Prediction & Betting Tips - Copa Libertadores
by Joseph King in Copa Libertadores Predictions
Only four teams remain in the quest for the coveted 2024 Copa Libertadores trophy! First up, Brazilian club Atlético Mineiro hosts Argentinian giants River Plate for the first leg on Tuesday. If you’re looking to bet on this match between Galo and Los Millonarios, then we have a few predictions that are sure to be of interest.
Both of these storied clubs are former winners of the competition; Atlético Mineiro have one title to their name (2013) while River Plate have lifted the trophy four times, most recently in 2018. Atletico knocked off the defending champions Fluminense in the quarter-final after overturning a 1-0 first leg deficit to advance 2-1.
River Plate edged by Chilean side Colo-Colo by an aggregate score of 2-1 in their quarter-final matchup, marking a return to the semi-finals for the first time in four years. Awaiting the winner of this tie in the final will be either Botafogo or Peñarol.
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The Best Betting Odds for Atletico MG v CA River Plate (ARG) Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.38 | 2.8 | 3.5 |
|
|
2.75 | 2.05 | 3.75 |
|
|
2.33 | 2.85 | 3.83 |
|
|
2.33 | 2.85 | 3.83 |
|
|
2.2 | 2.9 | 3.6 |
|
|
2.49 | 2.66 | 3.64 |
|
|
2.49 | 2.66 | 3.64 |
|
|
2.44 | 2.9 | 3.65 |
|
|
2.32 | 2.8 | 3.78 |
|
|
2.3 | 3.05 | 3.6 |
|
|
2.38 | 2.8 | 3.4 |
|
|
2.38 | 2.8 | 3.6 |
|
|
2.3 | 2.7 | 3.6 |
|
|
2.4 | 2.78 | 3.5 |
|
|
2.25 | 2.62 | 3.6 |
|
|
2.41 | 2.73 | 3.72 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Atletico MG and CA River Plate (ARG)?
Our prediction for the Atletico MG vs CA River Plate (ARG) match is: Draw and under 2.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 22/10/2024 between Atletico MG and CA River Plate (ARG) in Copa Libertadores :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 39.42% for a win of Atletico MG against CA River Plate (ARG) with odds of 2.75 at Ladbrokes.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Atletico MG vs CA River Plate (ARG) is 41.67% with odds of 3.05 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 18.91% chance ⭐ for a win of CA River Plate (ARG) vs Atletico MG with odds of 3.83 at 1xbet.
Atletico MG - CA River Plate (ARG) Prediction and Best Odds:
| Atletico MG CA River Plate (ARG) Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Draw | 41.67% | 3.05 at Tonybet |
| Under 2.5 | 65.58% | 1.9 at Tonybet |
| Both Team To Score | 39.58% | |
| Half-time / Full-time: Draw/Draw | 18.84% | 3.75 at Bet365 |
Atletico MG vs CA River Plate (ARG) Form
Atletico MG and CA River Plate (ARG) Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
19 Oct 2024 - Copa do Brasil
16 Oct 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
9 Oct 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
5 Oct 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
2 Oct 2024 - Copa do Brasil
28 Sep 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Oct 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
5 Oct 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
2 Oct 2024 - Copa do Brasil
25 Sep 2024 - Copa Libertadores
22 Sep 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
12 Sep 2024 - Copa do Brasil
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
19 Oct 2024 - Copa do Brasil
16 Oct 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
28 Sep 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
18 Sep 2024 - Copa Libertadores
15 Sep 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
1 Sep 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Oct 2024 - Liga Profesional Argentina
6 Oct 2024 - Liga Profesional Argentina
29 Sep 2024 - Liga Profesional Argentina
24 Sep 2024 - Copa Libertadores
21 Sep 2024 - Liga Profesional Argentina
17 Sep 2024 - Copa Libertadores
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Oct 2024 - Liga Profesional Argentina
29 Sep 2024 - Liga Profesional Argentina
24 Sep 2024 - Copa Libertadores
13 Sep 2024 - Liga Profesional Argentina
25 Aug 2024 - Liga Profesional Argentina
21 Aug 2024 - Copa Libertadores
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Oct 2024 - Liga Profesional Argentina
21 Sep 2024 - Liga Profesional Argentina
17 Sep 2024 - Copa Libertadores
1 Sep 2024 - Liga Profesional Argentina
17 Aug 2024 - Liga Profesional Argentina
14 Aug 2024 - Copa Libertadores
Atletico MG vs CA River Plate (ARG) Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
100 %
0 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
18 Aug 2021 - Copa Libertadores
11 Aug 2021 - Copa Libertadores
Atletico MG - CA River Plate (ARG): Form Analysis
It’s been a forgettable season domestically for Atlético Mineiro, who would have had title aspirations given the strength of their squad.
With just 10 wins from 29 Brasileiro Serie A matches, it’s looking likely that Atlético will have to win the Copa Libertadores this year if they are to participate in the next edition.
Most recently, Atlético Mineiro secured passage to the Copa do Brasil following a 1-1 away draw with Vasco over the weekend. The stalemate marked the third draw in the last four games for Galo but it also means that they have lost just once in their last eight matches across all competitions.
With both teams each having drawn their last two matches, a tight first leg is expected.
River Plate come into this semi-final first leg not in the best of form. The visitors were held to a 1-1 draw at home against Velez on the weekend, making it three consecutive games without a victory.
Since manager Marcelo Gallardo’s return to the club, River Plate have certainly improved defensively, although they’ve been lacking on the attacking side.
In Gallardo’s 13 games in charge this season, River Plate have five wins, seven draws and only a single defeat. They’ve now managed just one goal across their last three outings and have drawn back-to-back matches.
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Atletico MG against CA River Plate (ARG) Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Formation : 5 - 3 - 2
Atletico MG & CA River Plate (ARG) Squad Analysis
Atlético Mineiro boss Gabriel Milito only has a few injury concerns to worry about ahead of Tuesday’s match.
The hosts will be without some of their attacking flair as offensive-minded midfielder Matias Zaracho and former Everton winger Bernard miss out. The former has missed 15 matches with a hernia while the latter is set to miss his eighth game with a knee injury. They’ll also be without striker Cadu.
38-year-old Hulk has netted three goals in his last four outings!
The dangerman for Atlético Mineiro is undoubtedly the ageless wonder Hulk. The former Porto and Zenit player is his side’s top goalscorer with 19 in 42 appearances across all competitions.
On the other end, Milito’s compatriot Marcelo Gallardo will be without two players for his team’s trip to Belo Horizonte. Full back Agustin Sant’Anna and midfielder Rodrigo Aliendro are set to miss out with a knee and a shoulder injury, respectively.
Leading the scoring charts for the hosts is Colombian Miguel Borja who has an impressive 28 goals in 40 appearances this season. The 31-year-old has notched six goals in his nine Copa Libertadores matches this campaign.
Most goals and assists
Atletico MG
CA River Plate (ARG)
Paulinho
(15 Goals)
M. Borja
(16 Goals)
Hulk
(9 Assists)
,
G. Scarpa
(9 Assists)
I. Fernandez
(4 Assists)
,
F. Mastantuono
(4 Assists)
Atletico MG - CA River Plate (ARG) Key Points
- Five of the last 10 Copa Libertadores semi-final first legs have finished in draws.
- Of those five draws, four have been either 0-0 or 1-1.
- River Plate’s last two matches have finished 0-0 and 1-1.
- Eight of River Plate’s last 14 matches across all competitions have finished either 0-0 or 1-1 (57.1%).
- Atlético Mineiro have drawn three of their last four with the last two straight finishing 1-1.
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Our Atletico MG vs CA River Plate (ARG) Prediction
Atlético Mineiro come into this match with home field advantage and a slight edge at the bookmakers. However, River Plate have proven to be an exceedingly hard team to beat with Gallardo back at the helm and have conceded just seven goals in the Argentine’s 13 matches in charge.
With this bet, we’re backing this semi-final first leg matchup to finish either 0-0 or 1-1 between these two teams. With the current odds implying a probability of 29%, the numbers point towards this bet having a good amount of value. Our Atlético Mineiro vs River Plate prediction: draw + under 2.5 goals.Atletico MG vs CA River Plate (ARG) - Other Interesting Predictions
Under 2.5 goals
If you'd rather play it a bit safer and just focus on the goals market, then targeting the under looks like the way to approach this one. We’re likely to see a tense game with the stakes being so high and are anticipating clear cut chances to be at a premium.
Additionally, River Plate has only managed one goal in their last three outings while conceding only twice in their last five matches.
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Try your luck on this year's Copa Libertadores! You need to make your qualifying bet of £10 within 30 days of opening an account and this can be on any sport with at least one selection priced at 1.2 (1/5) or bigger.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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