South America - Copa Libertadores
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Atletico MG vs Fluminense Prediction & Betting Tips - Copa Libertadores
by Joseph King in Copa Libertadores Predictions
The return leg of the Copa Libertadores quarter-final sees Atlético Mineiro hosting Fluminense at the Arena MRV on Wednesday evening. Let’s break down this clash between Galo and the Tricolor and offer a match prediction.
Fluminense hold the aggregate lead after a 1-0 win on their home pitch in the first leg. Atletico Mineiro will now have to overturn the tie if they are to advance to a semi-final matchup against either River Plate or Colo-Colo.
Atletico Mineiro come into this second leg after a 3-0 home win over RB Bragantino in the Brazilian domestic league on the weekend. Prior to that they had been winless in three which included two losses.
In the Copa Libertadores, Atlético Mineiro have a perfect four wins from four on their home patch. On the road, they’ve managed a record of two wins, one draw and two defeats.
The last time Atletico Mineiro made it to the final was in the 2012/13 season when they lifted the trophy. Their last time making it to the final four was three years ago when they were eliminated by eventual champions Palmeiras.
As for defending champions Fluminense, they’ll be looking to preserve their slim aggregate lead in Belo Horizonte. Similar to their opponents today, Fluminense have been excellent on their home pitch where they have won all five of their fixtures so far. As the away team, Fluzão have managed just a single win from four trips.
In their last outing, Fluminense fell to a 1-0 home loss to Botafogo, yet another defeat in the Brazilian league. It’s been a horror season for the champions of South America domestically as they face the very serious possibility of relegation.
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The Best Betting Odds for Atletico MG v Fluminense Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.62 | 3.6 | 5.5 |
|
|
1.8 | 3.25 | 3.9 |
|
|
1.7 | 3.62 | 5.3 |
|
|
1.7 | 3.62 | 5.3 |
|
|
1.8 | 3.3 | 4.4 |
|
|
1.77 | 3.54 | 4.9 |
|
|
1.77 | 3.54 | 4.9 |
|
|
1.86 | 3.6 | 4.5 |
|
|
1.85 | 3.5 | 4.4 |
|
|
1.85 | 3.6 | 4.5 |
|
|
1.72 | 3.55 | 5.3 |
|
|
1.62 | 3.3 | 5 |
|
|
1.65 | 3.6 | 5.5 |
|
|
1.65 | 3.3 | 5.25 |
|
|
1.69 | 3.52 | 5.7 |
|
|
1.7 | 3.4 | 5.25 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Atletico MG and Fluminense?
Our prediction for the Atletico MG vs Fluminense match is: Under 2.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 25/09/2024 between Atletico MG and Fluminense in Copa Libertadores :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 51.24% for a win of Atletico MG against Fluminense with odds of 1.86 at Stake.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Atletico MG vs Fluminense is 19.45% with odds of 3.62 at 1xbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 29.32% chance ⭐ for a win of Fluminense vs Atletico MG with odds of 5.7 at Vbet.
Atletico MG - Fluminense Prediction and Best Odds:
| Atletico MG Fluminense Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico MG wins | 51.24% | 1.86 at Stake |
| Under 2.5 | 59.96% | 2.24 at Tonybet |
| Both Team To Score | 32.08% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Atletico MG | 21.45% | 4.4 at Ladbrokes |
Atletico MG vs Fluminense Form
Atletico MG and Fluminense Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Sep 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
18 Sep 2024 - Copa Libertadores
15 Sep 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
12 Sep 2024 - Copa do Brasil
1 Sep 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
28 Aug 2024 - Copa do Brasil
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Sep 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
12 Sep 2024 - Copa do Brasil
24 Aug 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
20 Aug 2024 - Copa Libertadores
17 Aug 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
7 Aug 2024 - Copa do Brasil
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Sep 2024 - Copa Libertadores
15 Sep 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
1 Sep 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
28 Aug 2024 - Copa do Brasil
13 Aug 2024 - Copa Libertadores
10 Aug 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Sep 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
18 Sep 2024 - Copa Libertadores
15 Sep 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
1 Sep 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
24 Aug 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
20 Aug 2024 - Copa Libertadores
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Sep 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
18 Sep 2024 - Copa Libertadores
1 Sep 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
20 Aug 2024 - Copa Libertadores
17 Aug 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
7 Aug 2024 - Copa do Brasil
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Sep 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
24 Aug 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
13 Aug 2024 - Copa Libertadores
10 Aug 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
1 Aug 2024 - Copa do Brasil
28 Jul 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
Atletico MG vs Fluminense Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
33 %
33 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
18 Sep 2024 - Copa Libertadores
24 Aug 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
4 May 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
28 Oct 2023 - Brasileirão Serie A
21 Jun 2023 - Brasileirão Serie A
1 Oct 2022 - Brasileirão Serie A
Atletico MG against Fluminense Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 1 - 2
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Most goals and assists
Atletico MG
Fluminense
Paulinho
(15 Goals)
J. Arias
(9 Goals)
Hulk
(9 Assists)
,
G. Scarpa
(9 Assists)
J. Arias
(6 Assists)
,
Ganso
(6 Assists)
Atletico MG - Fluminense Key Points
- Fluminense see an average of just 1.50 total goals in their four away matches in the Copa Libertadores.
- Atletico Mineiro have seen under 2.5 goals scored in five of their last six in this competition.
- The hosts have kept a clean sheet in three of their last four home matches.
- Five of Fluminense’s last six meetings with Atletico MG have finished with under 2.5 goals.
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Our Atletico MG vs Fluminense Prediction
These two sides played out an extremely tight first leg fixture that looked to be heading to a goalless draw before Lima broke the deadlock three minutes from full time. We're expecting another close, tense encounter here with a place in the semi-final on the line.
Both of these teams have excelled at home in this year's Copa Libertadores which gives Atletico Mineiro the edge. Fluminense have shown a pattern of keeping matches low scoring on the road, with only three goals scored and three conceded in four games. Our Atletico Mineiro vs Fluminense prediction: under 2.5 goals.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Atletico MG Fluminense
| Atletico MG vs Fluminense | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico MG wins | 1.71 | 1.62 | -5.3% |
| Draw | 3.7 | 3.6 | -2.7% |
| Fluminense wins | 4.5 | 5.5 | +22.2% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Atletico MG is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 5.3% since opening
- The probability of this result was 58.5% and is now 61.7% (3.2%)
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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