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Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Prediction & Betting Tips - Champions League
by Devesh Jaganath in Champions League Predictions
On Wednesday, Real Madrid will make the short trip down the M-40 to the Estadio Metropolitano to take on cross-town rivals Atletico Madrid in the second leg of their Champions League round of 16 clash. The winner of this tie between Los Colchoneros and Los Blancos will move on to face either Arsenal or PSV in the quarter-final. Check out our match prediction below!
Real Madrid are the side to beat in this contest, having claimed a 2-1 victory at the Bernabeu in the first leg last week. Los Blancos have progressed from 21 of their last 22 Champions League ties after winning the first leg, with the exception being in the 2018-19 season against Ajax. Atleti have lost the first leg in six previous Champions League ties and have managed to come back to qualify for the next round on three of those occasions.
There is virtually nothing to separate these two according to the latest bookmaker odds. Let’s get into the key stats at play in this week’s Madrid Derby.
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The Best Betting Odds for Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.55 | 3.5 | 2.63 |
|
|
2.5 | 3.75 | 2.63 |
|
|
2.5 | 3.5 | 2.62 |
|
|
2.6 | 3.61 | 2.79 |
|
|
2.6 | 3.61 | 2.79 |
|
|
2.55 | 3.5 | 2.65 |
|
|
2.58 | 3.52 | 2.61 |
|
|
2.58 | 3.52 | 2.61 |
|
|
2.6 | 3.55 | 2.7 |
|
|
2.58 | 3.52 | 2.61 |
|
|
2.6 | 3.55 | 2.7 |
|
|
2.58 | 3.55 | 2.73 |
|
|
2.6 | 3.4 | 2.63 |
|
|
2.55 | 3.6 | 2.65 |
|
|
2.5 | 3.5 | 2.7 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid?
Our prediction for the Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid match is: both teams to score.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 12/03/2025 between Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 39.45% for a win of Atletico Madrid against Real Madrid with odds of 2.6 at 1xbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid is 28.03% with odds of 3.75 at Betfred.
- Our prediction model gives a 32.52% chance ⭐ for a win of Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid with odds of 2.79 at 1xbet.
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Form
Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Mar 2025 - LaLiga
4 Mar 2025 - Champions League
1 Mar 2025 - LaLiga
25 Feb 2025 - Copa del Rey
22 Feb 2025 - LaLiga
15 Feb 2025 - LaLiga
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Mar 2025 - LaLiga
15 Feb 2025 - LaLiga
4 Feb 2025 - Copa del Rey
1 Feb 2025 - LaLiga
25 Jan 2025 - LaLiga
21 Jan 2025 - Champions League
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Mar 2025 - LaLiga
4 Mar 2025 - Champions League
25 Feb 2025 - Copa del Rey
22 Feb 2025 - LaLiga
8 Feb 2025 - LaLiga
29 Jan 2025 - Champions League
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Mar 2025 - LaLiga
4 Mar 2025 - Champions League
1 Mar 2025 - LaLiga
26 Feb 2025 - Copa del Rey
23 Feb 2025 - LaLiga
19 Feb 2025 - Champions League
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Mar 2025 - LaLiga
4 Mar 2025 - Champions League
23 Feb 2025 - LaLiga
19 Feb 2025 - Champions League
8 Feb 2025 - LaLiga
22 Jan 2025 - Champions League
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Mar 2025 - LaLiga
26 Feb 2025 - Copa del Rey
15 Feb 2025 - LaLiga
11 Feb 2025 - Champions League
5 Feb 2025 - Copa del Rey
1 Feb 2025 - LaLiga
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
17 %
50 %
33 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
4 Mar 2025 - Champions League
8 Feb 2025 - LaLiga
29 Sep 2024 - LaLiga
4 Feb 2024 - LaLiga
18 Jan 2024 - Copa del Rey
10 Jan 2024 - Super Cup
Atletico Madrid - Real Madrid: Form Analysis
While Atletico Madrid came out on the wrong side of the 2-1 scoreline last week, they were certainly not outplayed. They managed 48% possession and were also the more attacking in the closing stages.
Los Colchoneros have only lost one of their last seven home games against this opponent in all competitions (W3 D3 L1). In cup competitions, they are unbeaten in their last five on home soil against Los Blancos.
Additionally, it is worth noting that the hosts have not lost a Champions League knockout match in front of their home fans since a 3-2 defeat to Ajax way back in March 1997.
Athleti are unbeaten in their last 18 Champions League knockout matches at home (W11 D7 L0)!
Meanwhile, following last week’s victory, Real Madrid are now on course to reach the quarter-final of the Champions League for the 40th time - no other team has made it to the last eighth more often.
However, since winning eight consecutive away matches against this opponent between 2008 and 2014, Los Blancos have only managed three victories in their last 17 on the road against Atleti.
The visitors lost their first two Champions League away games this season without scoring but netted three goals in each of their last three against Atalanta, Brest and Manchester City.
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Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid last Lineups
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Atletico Madrid & Real Madrid Squad Analysis
Atletico Madrid suffered a 2-1 loss to Getafe over the weekend, and that defeat may have come at some cost, with Clement Lenglet pulling out of the starting lineup ahead of kickoff due to an injury.
Additionally, World Cup winner Rodrigo De Paul was withdrawn at half time and looked in discomfort, and skipper Koke is sidelined, leaving Diego Simeone with a selection conundrum in midfield.
Julian Alvarez has scored five goals in his last five games for Atletico Madrid.
Indeed, the former Manchester City attacker is having a fine debut season in Spain, now with seven goals in nine Champions League games, including scoring in each of his last three at home in this competition.
Real Madrid will be able to welcome back Jude Bellingham for this trip across town, with the England international having now served his one-match European ban in the first leg.
Kylian Mbappe and Vinicius Junior are tied on seven goals apiece in the Champions League this season and will likely be joined by Rodrygo in the front three after the latter opened the scoring last week.
Most goals and assists
Atletico Madrid
Real Madrid
J. Alvarez
(17 Goals)
K. Mbappe
(25 Goals)
A. Griezmann
(7 Assists)
, 
M. Llorente
(7 Assists)
J. Bellingham
(9 Assists)
Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid Stats in Champions League
Atletico Madrid - Real Madrid Key Points
- Five of Atletico Madrid’s last seven games across all competitions have ended with both teams scoring.
- Each of Atletico Madrid’s last four Champions League games have ended with both teams scoring.
- Both teams have scored in all four of Atletico Madrid’s home games in this competition.
- Eight of Real Madrid’s 11 Champions League games this season have ended with both teams scoring.
- Both teams have scored in each of the last seven matches between these sides across all competitions.
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Our Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Prediction
While Real Madrid have the advantage heading into this match, you get the feeling that this tie is far from over, given Atletico Madrid’s record in this fixture when playing on their home patch.
Los Blancos are likely to welcome back Jude Bellingham for this match, which will bolster their attacking ranks, but the hosts have an in-form Julian Alvarez at their disposal, and we feel that both sides will find the back of the net at least once before the final whistle. Our Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid prediction is both teams to score.
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid - Other Interesting Predictions
Over 2.5
All nine of Atletico Madrid’s Champions League matches this season have ended with over 2.5 goals, while nine of Real Madrid’s 11 games in the competition have seen three or more goals strike the back of the net.
Use £/€50 free bets for the Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid game!
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Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid match : Frequently asked questions
The Champions League match between Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid will be played on March 12 at 20:00 GMT.
The Champions League match between Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid will take place at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano in Madrid.
The Champions League match between Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid will be broadcast on TNT Sports in the UK and on Movistar+ in Spain.
Alternatively, you can keep up to the minute with all the action using our Champions League livescore tool.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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