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Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Prediction & Betting Tips - LaLiga
by Steve Ashfield in LaLiga Predictions
Atletico Madrid are third in La Liga but can move up to second with a win here. The Mattress Makers host Real Madrid who are currently in second after seven matches of the new season. A great Madrid derby looks likely and here's our match prediction.
Midweek saw Atletico win 1-0 at Celta Vigo thanks to a 90th minute winner by substitute Julian Alvarez. That extended Atletico's unbeaten start to the new La Liga season with four wins and three draws.Only three goals have been conceded by the Indians in those seven games. They are yet to concede a home league goal this season but that will be severely tested by their opponents Real Madrid.
The visitors are second but four points behind leaders Barcelona. They also won in midweek with a 3-2 home win over Alaves. Five of their seven league games have been won this season and they are also unbeaten.
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The Best Betting Odds for Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.75 | 3.1 | 2.63 |
|
|
2.87 | 2.5 | 2.7 |
|
|
3.03 | 3.21 | 2.57 |
|
|
3.03 | 3.21 | 2.57 |
|
|
2.8 | 3.4 | 2.45 |
|
|
2.97 | 3.26 | 2.43 |
|
|
2.97 | 3.26 | 2.43 |
|
|
2.95 | 3.3 | 2.6 |
|
|
2.84 | 3.38 | 2.46 |
|
|
2.9 | 3.45 | 2.48 |
|
|
2.87 | 3.21 | 2.77 |
|
|
2.8 | 3.1 | 2.63 |
|
|
2.8 | 3.05 | 2.8 |
|
|
2.63 | 3 | 2.55 |
|
|
2.85 | 3.2 | 2.65 |
|
|
2.8 | 3.1 | 2.6 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid?
Our prediction for the Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid match is: Double chance bet on Atletico Madrid to win or draw.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 29/09/2024 between Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid in LaLiga :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 44.34% for a win of Atletico Madrid against Real Madrid with odds of 3.03 at 1xbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid is 26.54% with odds of 3.45 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 29.13% chance ⭐ for a win of Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid with odds of 2.8 at Unibet.
Atletico Madrid - Real Madrid Prediction and Best Odds:
| Atletico Madrid Real Madrid Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid wins | 44.34% | 3.03 at 1xbet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.96% | 2.08 at Vbet |
| Both Team To Score | 58.33% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Atletico Madrid | 20.46% | 6.5 at Betfair |
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Form
Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid's standings in the LaLiga
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
27 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
|
3
|
26 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 12 |
Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Sep 2024 - LaLiga
22 Sep 2024 - LaLiga
19 Sep 2024 - Champions League
15 Sep 2024 - LaLiga
31 Aug 2024 - LaLiga
28 Aug 2024 - LaLiga
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
19 Sep 2024 - Champions League
15 Sep 2024 - LaLiga
28 Aug 2024 - LaLiga
25 Aug 2024 - LaLiga
11 Aug 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
19 May 2024 - LaLiga
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Sep 2024 - LaLiga
22 Sep 2024 - LaLiga
31 Aug 2024 - LaLiga
19 Aug 2024 - LaLiga
7 Aug 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
3 Aug 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
24 Sep 2024 - LaLiga
21 Sep 2024 - LaLiga
17 Sep 2024 - Champions League
14 Sep 2024 - LaLiga
1 Sep 2024 - LaLiga
29 Aug 2024 - LaLiga
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
24 Sep 2024 - LaLiga
21 Sep 2024 - LaLiga
17 Sep 2024 - Champions League
1 Sep 2024 - LaLiga
25 Aug 2024 - LaLiga
14 Aug 2024 - Uefa Super Cup
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Sep 2024 - LaLiga
29 Aug 2024 - LaLiga
18 Aug 2024 - LaLiga
6 Aug 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
3 Aug 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
31 Jul 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
33 %
33 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
4 Feb 2024 - LaLiga
18 Jan 2024 - Copa del Rey
10 Jan 2024 - Super Cup
24 Sep 2023 - LaLiga
25 Feb 2023 - LaLiga
26 Jan 2023 - Copa del Rey
Atletico Madrid - Real Madrid: Form Analysis
Atletico Madrid come into this game only two points behind their opponents. Midweek saw a late Julian Alvarez goal give them their fourth league win of the season, the other three all ending in draws.
Atletico are yet to concede a home league goal this season.
At home, Atletico have won two out of their three league fixtures this season. 3-0 wins were recorded over both Girona and Valencia but they were held to a goalless draw by Espanyol.
They have only lost three of their last 38 home La Liga fixtures, two of them to Barcelona. Atletico have won two of their last three home games against Real.
The away side have won all four of their home league games this season. It's not been so good on the road with draws at Mallorca and Las Palmas before getting a 2-0 win at Real Sociedad. They are unbeaten in their last 18 away league matches.
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Atletico Madrid against Real Madrid Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 5 - 3 - 2
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Atletico Madrid & Real Madrid Squad Analysis
Atletico will be missing Pablo Barrios, Thomas Lemar and César Azpilicueta for this match. Midweek saw them win 1-0 at Celta Vigo and they rested some players for that match with this big Madrid derby ahead of them.
It's fully expected that Julian Alvarez (who scored the winner against Celta Vigo), Samuel Lino and Rodrigo De Paul will be in the starting line-up rather than beginning the match on the bench.
Alvarez is expected to replace Alexander Sorloth for this match and he'll partner Antoine Griezmann.
Kylian Mbappe is out injured for Real Madrid
Kylian Mbappe won't be playing in his first Madrid derby. The French player will be missing this game after being injured against Alaves in midweek. It's a big blow for Real as Mbappe had scored in each of their last five matches.
Also out injured are Dani Ceballos, David Alaba and Brahim Diaz. Better news is that Eduardo Camavinga is expected to have recovered from the knee injury he sustained earlier in the new season.
Dani Carvajal missed the match against Alaves but is expected to be fit for this match.
Most goals and assists
Atletico Madrid
Real Madrid
J. Alvarez
(5 Goals)
V. Junior
(12 Goals)
A. Griezmann
(6 Assists)
V. Junior
(4 Assists)
Atletico Madrid - Real Madrid Key Points
- Atletico Madrid are yet to concede a home league goal this season.
- Real Madrid have only won one of their three away league matches so far this term.
- Real Madrid will be without Kylian Mbappe for this match.
- Atletico Madrid have only lost three of their last 39 home league fixtures.
- Atletico Madrid have won two of their last three home league games against Real.
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Our Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Prediction
Both of these clubs are unbeaten in La Liga this season. Atletico Madrid have made a strong start and their new signings have settled in well. Home form is strong with two wins already and no goals conceded.
Real Madrid have won all their home games but just one on the road. They will be without Kylian Mbappe for this match and that's a major blow as he's already been scoring plenty of goals for them. Our main Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid prediction is a double chance bet on Atletico Madrid to win or draw.
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid - Other Interesting Predictions
Both teams to score
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Atletico Madrid Real Madrid
| Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid wins | 3 | 2.75 | -8.3% |
| Draw | 3.4 | 3.1 | -8.8% |
| Real Madrid wins | 2.35 | 2.63 | +11.9% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Atletico Madrid is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 8.3% since opening
- The probability of this result was 33.3% and is now 36.4% (3.0%)
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Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid match : Frequently asked questions
This Madrid derby is being shown live on ITV4 and the ITVX app and website. Premier Sports 1 are also showing it but you need a subscription for that channel. You can also follow all the action on our La Liga livescore.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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