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Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid Prediction & Betting Tips - LaLiga
by Sridhar in LaLiga Predictions
Atletico Madrid will look to continue their unbeaten start to the season as they face a tricky trip to Athletic Bilbao. This La Liga match on Saturday to be played at the Estadio de San Mamés Stadium in Bilbao and our prediction is for a cagey affair with goals to come at a premium.
Athletic have four points from three matches and are yet to hit their stride, although this venue has been their lucky charm. Atletico have got five points and are unbeaten this season, starting this round in the fourth spot.
While Atletico are expected to hit the ground running with their new signings, Athletic are likely to make things tougher considering their strong record at this venue. Teams have struggled against Athletic here, and they haven’t lost a home league match since last August.
Can Atletico break that trend and hand Athletic Bilbao a rare home defeat? Or, are the hosts strong enough to keep the heavy Atletico artillery at bay?
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The Best Betting Odds for Athletic Bilbao v Atletico Madrid Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
12 | 1.11 | 13 |
|
|
2.8 | 3.3 | 2.45 |
|
|
22 | 12 | 1.02 |
|
|
22 | 12 | 1.02 |
|
|
2.75 | 3.25 | 2.7 |
|
|
2.82 | 3.34 | 2.51 |
|
|
2.82 | 3.34 | 2.51 |
|
|
100 | 9.5 | 1.05 |
|
|
3.01 | 3.38 | 2.35 |
|
|
3.05 | 3.4 | 2.41 |
|
|
12 | 1.13 | 14 |
|
|
126 | 13 | 1.03 |
|
|
2.8 | 3.3 | 2.55 |
|
|
401 | 11 | 1.05 |
|
|
2.8 | 3.3 | 2.65 |
|
|
2.75 | 3.25 | 2.55 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Athletic Bilbao and Atletico Madrid?
Our prediction for the Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid match is: Under 2.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 31/08/2024 between Athletic Bilbao and Atletico Madrid in LaLiga :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 22.32% for a win of Athletic Bilbao against Atletico Madrid with odds of 401 at Betfair.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid is 30.9% with odds of 13 at Betway.
- Our prediction model gives a 46.78% chance ⭐ for a win of Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao with odds of 14 at Vbet.
Athletic Bilbao - Atletico Madrid Prediction and Best Odds:
| Athletic Bilbao Atletico Madrid Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid wins | 46.78% | 14 at Vbet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.35% | 2.38 at Betway |
| Both Team To Score | 56.67% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Atletico Madrid | 19.54% | 6 at Bet365 |
Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid Form
Athletic Bilbao and Atletico Madrid's standings in the LaLiga
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3
|
26 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 12 |
|
6
|
20 | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
Athletic Bilbao and Atletico Madrid Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Aug 2024 - LaLiga
24 Aug 2024 - LaLiga
15 Aug 2024 - LaLiga
10 Aug 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
7 Aug 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
3 Aug 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Aug 2024 - LaLiga
15 Aug 2024 - LaLiga
3 Aug 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
19 May 2024 - LaLiga
11 May 2024 - LaLiga
19 Apr 2024 - LaLiga
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
24 Aug 2024 - LaLiga
10 Aug 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
7 Aug 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
1 Aug 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
27 Jul 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
24 Jul 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Aug 2024 - LaLiga
25 Aug 2024 - LaLiga
19 Aug 2024 - LaLiga
11 Aug 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
7 Aug 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
3 Aug 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Aug 2024 - LaLiga
25 Aug 2024 - LaLiga
11 Aug 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
19 May 2024 - LaLiga
12 May 2024 - LaLiga
27 Apr 2024 - LaLiga
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
19 Aug 2024 - LaLiga
7 Aug 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
3 Aug 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
27 Jul 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
25 May 2024 - LaLiga
15 May 2024 - LaLiga
Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
0 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
27 Apr 2024 - LaLiga
29 Feb 2024 - Copa del Rey
7 Feb 2024 - Copa del Rey
16 Dec 2023 - LaLiga
19 Feb 2023 - LaLiga
15 Oct 2022 - LaLiga
Athletic Bilbao - Atletico Madrid: Form Analysis
Athletic Bilbao started their season with a draw, a loss, and a win, giving them four points from the first three matches. After a 1-1 draw with Getafe in the opening matchday, Athletic were edged 2-1 by Barcelona in the second match.
They got back to winning ways with a 1-0 result over Valencia last time out, raising the morale in the camp. Oihan Sancet remains their best player so far, with two goals to his name. All four points of this campaign have come at home, and Athletic are likely to fancy their chances considering their recent form at this venue. The Basque side hasn’t lost a home league game since last August, winning 13 and drawing seven of the last 20.
Five of the last six league head-to-head matches featured a clean sheet.
One of those matches even ended 0-0, so historically this fixture has been low on goals. Atletico could do their bit for that stat with their strong defensive record. The visitors have kept consecutive clean sheets in their league matches and, going back to last season, have six clean sheets in their last eight league matches.
Atletico started with a 2-2 draw against Villarreal in a match where all four goals were scored in the first half. They bounced back with a clinical 3-0 win over Girona in the next match but were held to a 0-0 draw by Espanyol in their latest fixture.
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Athletic Bilbao against Atletico Madrid Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Missing players
U. Simon
T. Lemar
Athletic Bilbao & Atletico Madrid Squad Analysis
The hosts are going through an injury crisis with as many as four players out of contention. Yuri Berchiche, Unai Simon, Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta, and Aitor Paredes are all out of contention for the home team. That said, there’s some good news in the wait for Athletic, as Mikel Vesga is set to be available for this contest along with Nico Williams.
Atletico Madrid don’t have too many concerns, with Thomas Lemar and Marcos Paulo the only absentees for the visitors. Those aren't huge losses for manager Diego Simeone, as they are well stocked in the midfield and attacking options.
Antoine Griezmann could be set for a starting role.
Atletico used the Frenchman as a substitute against Espanyol but he is likely to start here. With Alvarez set to get a chance to impress, Griezmann could be up for a deeper role where he would be deployed as the primary playmaker.
Nico Williams has yet to score or assist for Athletic this season, but with an average of 2.7 shots per game, he’s already showing his worth. For the visitors, it is the lanky forward Alexander Sorloth, who has one goal to his name along with an average of 2.3 shots per game, who’s leading the line.
Most goals and assists
Athletic Bilbao
Atletico Madrid
O. Sancet
(5 Goals)
, 
I. Williams
(5 Goals)
J. Alvarez
(5 Goals)
A. Berenguer
(5 Assists)
A. Griezmann
(6 Assists)
Athletic Bilbao - Atletico Madrid Key Points
- Five of the last six league matches between Athletic and Atletico have produced under 2.5 goals.
- Four of Athletic’s last five league games have seen fewer than three goals scored.
- In seven of their last eight home league games, Athletic have seen two or fewer goals scored.
- Atletico kept a clean sheet in six of their last eight league matches.
- Atletico also shut out their opponents in three of their last four away league matches.
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Our Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid Prediction
Atletico Madrid have done heavy shopping in the summer transfer window but are yet to hit the top gear. The likes of Julian Alvarez has not quite hit the ground running, which makes us wonder if they are going to break out in this match.
Athletic are a tough team to break at their home venue though, which adds to the intrigue of this fixture. This is likely to be a cagey encounter, and our Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid prediction is for under 2.5 goals to be scored.
Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid - Other Interesting Predictions
Antoine Griezmann to score anytime
Antoine Griezmann remains a key player for Atletico, scoring and assisting in the 3-0 win over Girona. He didn’t score in either of last season’s league matches against Athletic but scored in both legs in the 2022–23 season when Atletico won the two head-to-head league matches by a 1-0 scoreline. The French forward could be looking to repeat the dose.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Athletic Bilbao Atletico Madrid
| Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Bilbao wins | 2.8 | 12 | +328.6% |
| Draw | 3.3 | 1.11 | -66.4% |
| Atletico Madrid wins | 2.45 | 13 | +430.6% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Atletico Madrid is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 430.6% since opening
- The probability of this result was 40.8% and is now 7.7% (-33.1%)
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Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid match : Frequently asked questions
This Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid Spanish La Liga match will be televised live on Premier Sports 2 and LALIGATV in the UK.
You can also follow the game through our live scores. Check out our Spanish La Liga Livescore page!
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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