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Aston Villa vs Newcastle Prediction & Betting Tips - Premier League
by Ian John | in Premier League Predictions
The late game on Tuesday in the Premier League sees Aston Villa host Newcastle United in a clash between the team with the best home record in the Premier League this season, against the team with the second worst away record. Yet strangely, Newcastle beat Villa 5-1 when they met on the opening day of the season back in August. The fortunes of the two teams have contrasted somewhat since then with Villa now 4th in the Premier League, level on points with Manchester City and Arsenal, while Newcastle have dropped to 10th on the back of four straight losses. Plenty is at stake therefore when these two teams meet on Tuesday night at Villa Park.Limited Offer. Currently at DraftKings
The Best Betting Odds for Aston Villa v Newcastle Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.85 | 4 | 3.8 |
|
|
1.83 | 3.85 | 3.8 |
|
|
1.89 | 4.09 | 3.88 |
|
|
1.89 | 4.09 | 3.88 |
|
|
1.82 | 4.1 | 3.86 |
|
|
1.82 | 4.1 | 3.86 |
|
|
1.88 | 4.1 | 3.9 |
|
|
1.8 | 4 | 4.04 |
|
|
1.87 | 4.1 | 3.85 |
|
|
1.91 | 4 | 3.6 |
|
|
1.82 | 3.85 | 4.1 |
|
|
1.85 | 4.15 | 3.95 |
|
|
1.88 | 3.8 | 3.75 |
|
|
1.89 | 4.1 | 3.98 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Aston Villa and Newcastle?
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 30/01/2024 between Aston Villa and Newcastle in Premier League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 57.4% for a win of Aston Villa against Newcastle with odds of 1.91 at Betway.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Aston Villa vs Newcastle is 20.06% with odds of 4.15 at Betsson.
- Our prediction model gives a 22.54% chance ⭐ for a win of Newcastle vs Aston Villa with odds of 4.1 at Unibet.
Aston Villa - Newcastle Prediction and Best Odds:
| Aston Villa Newcastle Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa wins | 57.4% | 1.91 at Betway |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.33% | 1.63 at 1xbet |
| Both Team To Score | 52.92% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Aston Villa | 21.8% | 5.5 at Bet365 |
Aston Villa vs Newcastle Form
Aston Villa and Newcastle's standings in the Premier League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4
|
68 | 38 | 20 | 8 | 10 | 15 |
|
7
|
60 | 38 | 18 | 6 | 14 | 23 |
Aston Villa and Newcastle Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Jan 2024 - FA Cup
14 Jan 2024 - Premier League
6 Jan 2024 - FA Cup
30 Dec 2023 - Premier League
26 Dec 2023 - Premier League
22 Dec 2023 - Premier League
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Dec 2023 - Premier League
22 Dec 2023 - Premier League
9 Dec 2023 - Premier League
6 Dec 2023 - Premier League
30 Nov 2023 - Conference League
12 Nov 2023 - Premier League
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Jan 2024 - FA Cup
14 Jan 2024 - Premier League
6 Jan 2024 - FA Cup
26 Dec 2023 - Premier League
17 Dec 2023 - Premier League
14 Dec 2023 - Conference League
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Jan 2024 - FA Cup
13 Jan 2024 - Premier League
6 Jan 2024 - FA Cup
1 Jan 2024 - Premier League
26 Dec 2023 - Premier League
23 Dec 2023 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Jan 2024 - Premier League
26 Dec 2023 - Premier League
16 Dec 2023 - Premier League
13 Dec 2023 - Champions League
2 Dec 2023 - Premier League
25 Nov 2023 - Premier League
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Jan 2024 - FA Cup
6 Jan 2024 - FA Cup
1 Jan 2024 - Premier League
23 Dec 2023 - Premier League
19 Dec 2023 - Carabao Cup
10 Dec 2023 - Premier League
Aston Villa vs Newcastle Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
17 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
12 Aug 2023 - Premier League
15 Apr 2023 - Premier League
29 Oct 2022 - Premier League
13 Feb 2022 - Premier League
21 Aug 2021 - Premier League
12 Mar 2021 - Premier League
Aston Villa - Newcastle: Form Analysis
Aston Villa earned the right to a replay against Chelsea in the FA Cup at the weekend, drawing 0-0 at Stamford Bridge. A second successive goalless draw for the Villains after they achieved the same scoreline on their trip to Everton the previous weekend. In fact, in their last three games, Villa have not conceded a goal, but they have managed to score just the one in a 1-0 away win over Middlesbrough in the FA Cup Third Round. Unai Emery's team have not found goals a problem at home however, scoring a league high 29 in front of their own fans, conceding a Premier League low of eight at home. Strangely, it was the team with the worst away record in the division, Sheffield United, that caused the only imperfection on Villa's home record this season, when the Blades earned a 1-1 draw at Villa Park just before Christmas last year.
That fact may give Newcastle fans a little hope that they can continue the type of away form they have shown in the FA Cup. Here they have beaten great rivals Sunderland 3-0 at the Stadium of Light and then at the weekend earned a 2-0 win at Craven Cottage over Fulham to move into the 5th Round of the competition. However, in the league they have won just one away game all season and picked up a measly five points from 30 available. Weirdly, the one game Newcastle won on the road was an 8-0 thrashing of Sheffield United back in September, which did somewhat skew their goal record on the road. This game comes after two tough league games in succession against Liverpool (which they lost 4-2 at Anfield) and Manchester City (which they lost 3-2 at home), so it is going to be tough for Eddie Howe's team to pick up anything here against a team with such a formidable home record.
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Aston Villa against Newcastle Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Missing players
T. Mings
MidfielderE. Buendia
ForwardM. Rogers
J. Lascelles
M. Targett
MidfielderS. Tonali
J. Willock
ForwardC. Wilson
Aston Villa & Newcastle Squad Analysis
Aston Villa could be without a number of players for the game. Tyrone Mings and Emi Buendia are both long term absentees with ACL injuries, but Pau Torres has suffered a setback in his return to fitness from an ankle injury which could rule him out. Lucas Digne is still a week or so away from being able to return to full training while Jacob Ramsey has a hamstring tweak that could rule him out. Jhon Duran will also be absent with a hamstring injury which he sustained in training ahead of the weekend's game with Chelsea. Ollie Watkins has been Villa's star striker this season, but he was taken off injured against Chelsea and his fitness is another concern for the game with Newcastle.
Newcastle could have up to 11 players unavailable for the game with Villa. Matt Targett, Harvey Barnes, Nick Pope, Sandro Tonali, Joelinton and Elliot Anderson are all definitely out. Joe Willock likely won't return and Jamal Lascalles is a doubt with a slight ankle injury. Eddie Howe could see Callum Wilson, Miguel Almiron and Kieran Trippier back after all three picked up knocks recently, but it remains to be seen whether they are fit enough to start. Anthony Gordon has been a real star for Newcastle this season with the former Everton winger putting in a number of excellent performances notably at home. Can he now start to produce that level on the road too?
Most goals and assists
Aston Villa
Newcastle
O. Watkins
(24 Goals)
A. Isak
(23 Goals)
L. Bailey
(14 Assists)
K. Trippier
(11 Assists)
Aston Villa - Newcastle Key Points
- All of the last three games between the two teams have seen over 2.5 goals scored.
- Aston Villa are unbeaten in their last seven home games against Newcastle, winning the last four and drawing the three previous to that.
- Aston Villa home games average 3.7 goals per game this season, the most in the division. Newcastle away games average 3.8 goals per game this season, the second most in the Premier League behind Bournemouth (4 goals average per away game).
- In the last five Premier League games between the two, the home team has scored 15 goals while the away team has managed just one.
- Newcastle United have lost all their last five away games in the EPL, and have the second worst away record in the EPL. In contrast, Aston Villa have the best home record in the division taking 28 points from a possible 30.
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Our Aston Villa vs Newcastle Prediction
Prediction :
Aston Villa to win and Over 2.5 Goals to be scored
Aston Villa vs Newcastle - Other Interesting Predictions
Aston Villa to win and both teams to score
Moussa Diaby (Aston Villa) to score anytime
Aston Villa vs Newcastle match : Frequently asked questions
John Brooks will be the referee for the game and he will be assisted by Lee Betts and Akil Howson as assistant referees. Michael Salisbury will be the fourth official at Villa Park.
Andy Madley will be taking charge of VAR for the game at Stockley Park, assisted by Harry Lennard.
It will be the first time Brooks has refereed a Wolves game this season in the Premier League, he has refereed Aston Villa games twice already this season, including their 1-0 win over Manchester City.
He has handed out 60 yellow cards across 13 Premier League games this season, an average of 4.63 per game, as well as four red cards.
The weather for the Aston Villa v Newcastle game in Birmingham, kicking off at 8.15pm will be cloudy, but dry with temperatures dropping from around 7 degrees centigrade in the run up to the game to around 3 degrees centigrade at kick off.
Winds will be light and there should be little to no chance of any rain during the game.
Football fans can tune in to watch the Aston Villa v Newcastle game on TNT Sports (formerly BT Sports) in the UK. The game is also available via Live Streaming from TNT Sports for those with a subscription.
Don't have a subscription and can't catch the game live? Check out the Aston Villa v Newcastle Livescore page for all the latest match statistics and data in real time!
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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