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by Devesh Jaganath in Champions League Predictions
We are down to the last eight in the Champions League, and on Tuesday, we head to the Emirates Stadium for the first leg quarter-final clash between two European heavyweights - Arsenal vs. Real Madrid! The winner of this tie between the Gunners and Los Blancos will move on to face either PSG or Aston Villa in the final four. Check out our match prediction below!
This match marks only the third meeting between these sides in European competition, with the previous two encounters coming in the Champions League last 16 back in 2005-06. Arsenal emerged victorious from that tie 1-0 on aggregate, which included a 1-0 win at their then-home Highbury. Real Madrid have beaten more opponents from different countries than any other team in the history of the Champions League (111) - but Arsenal are not one of them!
Pre-match betting odds show that bookmakers fancy a home win in this match, but the visitors are the favourites to qualify for the semi-final. Let’s get into the key stats!
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The Best Betting Odds for Arsenal v Real Madrid Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2 | 3.5 | 3.6 |
|
|
2.1 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
|
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2.3 | 2.5 | 3.5 |
|
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2.12 | 3.65 | 3.4 |
|
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2.16 | 3.65 | 3.53 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Arsenal and Real Madrid?
Our prediction for the Arsenal vs Real Madrid match is: both teams to score.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 08/04/2025 between Arsenal and Real Madrid in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 42.17% for a win of Arsenal against Real Madrid with odds of 2.3 at Ladbrokes.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Arsenal vs Real Madrid is 30.58% with odds of 3.7 at Betsson.
- Our prediction model gives a 27.25% chance ⭐ for a win of Real Madrid vs Arsenal with odds of 3.6 at Bet365.
Arsenal - Real Madrid Prediction and Best Odds:
| Arsenal Real Madrid Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal wins | 42.17% | 2.3 at Ladbrokes |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.13% | 1.98 at Betobet |
| Both Team To Score | 68.75% | 1.83 at Vbet |
| Half-time / Full-time : Arsenal/Arsenal | 26% | 3.41 at Vbet |
Arsenal vs Real Madrid Form
Arsenal and Real Madrid Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Apr 2025 - Premier League
1 Apr 2025 - Premier League
16 Mar 2025 - Premier League
12 Mar 2025 - Champions League
9 Mar 2025 - Premier League
4 Mar 2025 - Champions League
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Apr 2025 - LaLiga
1 Apr 2025 - Copa del Rey
29 Mar 2025 - LaLiga
15 Mar 2025 - LaLiga
12 Mar 2025 - Champions League
9 Mar 2025 - LaLiga
Arsenal vs Real Madrid Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
23 Jul 2019 - International Champions Cup
Arsenal - Real Madrid: Form Analysis
Arsenal are set to feature in the quarter-final of the Champions League for the second consecutive season. However, they bowed out at this stage last term to Bayern Munich and have not made the last four since 2008-09.
This season, though, the North Londoners have been very impressive, finishing third in the League Phase before dispatching PSV 9-3 on aggregate in the last 16. They have still only lost one match in the competition to date.
The hosts have been particularly impressive at home, having won all four of their League Phase games without conceding a single goal. They drew 2-2 against PSV, but had fielded a changed-up side owing to having a 7-1 lead in the first leg.
Arsenal have led matches for longer than any other team in the Champions League this season (568 minutes)!
Meanwhile, Real Madrid had a fairly underwhelming League Phase by their own lofty standards, having lost three of their eight games, which saw them miss out on direct entry to the last 16.
The knockout stages were also far from straightforward for Los Merengues, particularly the round of 16, where they needed a penalty shootout to get past cross-town rivals Atletico Madrid.
However, it is worth noting that the visitors have never lost the first leg in any of their last eight knockout stage ties in the Champions League, winning five and drawing three.
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Arsenal against Real Madrid Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Missing players
T. Tomiyasu
R. Calafiori
G. Magalhaes
ForwardG. Jesus
K. Havertz
E. Militao
D. Carvajal
F. Mendy
MidfielderD. Ceballos
Arsenal & Real Madrid Squad Analysis
Mikel Arteta opted to start Raheem Sterling on the left flank against Everton over the weekend, most likely to keep Gabriel Martinelli fresh since the Chelsea loanee is suspended for this match.
The Gunners have a quintet of players missing for this match due to injury, including Gabriel Jesus (knee), Gabriel Magalhaes (hamstring), Takehiro Tomiyasu (knee), Kai Havertz (hamstring) and Riccardo Calafiori (knee).
Bukayo Saka could make his first start of 2025 in this match!
Arsenal’s Hale End product could be the danger man for the hosts here, having had six goal contributions in five Champions League games before sustaining his injury.
Real Madrid will have to make do without the services of Aurelien Tchouameni for this first-leg clash after the Frenchman crossed the yellow card threshold against Atleti in the last round.
Tchouameni will join long-term absentees Dani Carvajal and Eder Militao on the sidelines. However, Ferland Mendy and Dani Ceballos are expected to be back in action this week after missing the defeat to Valencia over the weekend.
Thibaut Courtois also sat out the last match, and Andriy Lunin is struggling with a calf issue. However, the Belgian number one is back in the squad and should play well against Arsenal..
Most goals and assists
Arsenal
Real Madrid
K. Havertz
(15 Goals)
K. Mbappe
(29 Goals)
B. Saka
(13 Assists)
J. Bellingham
(9 Assists)
Arsenal - Real Madrid Key Points
- Each of Arsenal’s last three Champions League games have ended with both teams scoring.
- Arsenal have scored two or more goals in four of their five home games in this competition.
- Seven of Real Madrid’s last 10 Champions League games have ended with both teams scoring.
- Real Madrid have scored three or more goals in three of their last four away games in this competition.
- Real Madrid are the second-highest scoring team in the Champions League this season (28 goals).
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Our Arsenal vs Real Madrid Prediction
Arsenal have conceded the second-fewest goals in the Champions League this season (6) and are the tightest defence in the Premier League. However, the absence of Gabriel Magalhaes is a major blow for Arteta’s side, especially with the side now set to face the likes of Kylian Mbappe and Vini Junior.
Real Madrid’s defensive fragility from set pieces was clearly evident in their loss to Valencia over the weekend, which is something that the hosts will likely look to exploit given their attacking prowess from dead-ball situations. Therefore, our Arsenal vs Real Madrid prediction is both teams to score.
Arsenal vs Real Madrid - Other Interesting Predictions
Bukayo Saka to score or assist
Bukayo Saka had six goal contributions (four goals and two assists) in five Champions League matches before sustaining his injury. He has made two substitute appearances since returning to action and registered a goal in one of those matches.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Arsenal Real Madrid
| Arsenal vs Real Madrid | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal wins | 2.5 | 2 | -20.0% |
| Draw | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0% |
| Real Madrid wins | 2.63 | 3.6 | +36.9% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Arsenal is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 20.0% since opening
- The probability of this result was 40.0% and is now 50.0% (10.0%)
Use £/€50 free bets for the Arsenal vs. Real Madrid game!
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Try your luck on this year's Champions League! You need to make your qualifying bet of €/£10 within 30 days of opening an account and this can be on any sport with at least one selection priced at 1.2 (1/5) or bigger.
Arsenal vs Real Madrid match : Frequently asked questions
The UEFA Champions League quarter-final first leg between Arsenal and Real Madrid will be played on April 8 at 20:00 GMT.
The UEFA Champions League quarter-final first leg between Arsenal and Real Madrid will take place at the Emirates Stadium in London.
The UEFA Champions League quarter-final first leg between Arsenal and Real Madrid will be broadcast on Amazon Prime in the UK and on DAZN in Spain.
Alternatively, you can stay up to date with every minute of the action using our UEFA Champions League livescore tool.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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