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Ajax vs Jagiellonia Bialystok Prediction & Betting Tips - Europa League
by Ian John in Europa League Predictions
Leading 4-1 from the first leg in Poland, Ajax Amsterdam faces Jagiellonia Bialystok in a very strong position in this Europa League Playoff second-round tie. De Godenzonen produced a scintillating display to put Jaga to the sword in the first match, making this second leg seem a formality. Will our prediction echo this?
Ajax have been excellent in the Europa League qualifiers this season. Their only blip was a 1-0 home defeat to Panathinaikos, but they escaped that loss by drawing 1-1 on aggregate and going through by penalties. The Dutch side, four-time Champions League winners, are now the massive favourites to progress into the draw for the league stage of the competition.
Jagiellonia Bialystok are in the middle of a dismal run of form, with their last victory coming back on August 3rd. Since then, they have lost five games, including the first leg of this tie, their two previous Champions League qualifiers and two Polish league games. They have shipped nine goals in their last three games and seem ripe for the taking in this most difficult second-leg tie.
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The Best Betting Odds for Ajax v Jagiellonia Bialystok Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.05 | 11 | 29 |
|
|
1.4 | 3.75 | 7.5 |
|
|
1.05 | 16.2 | 36 |
|
|
1.05 | 16.2 | 36 |
|
|
1.21 | 6.75 | 11 |
|
|
1.29 | 5.8 | 9.6 |
|
|
1.29 | 5.8 | 9.6 |
|
|
1.04 | 10.5 | 90 |
|
|
1.18 | 7.6 | 13 |
|
|
1.19 | 7.2 | 13 |
|
|
1.03 | 11 | 41 |
|
|
1.2 | 7 | 11 |
|
|
1 | 501 | 501 |
|
|
1.28 | 7 | 9 |
|
|
1.18 | 5.8 | 11 |
|
|
1.08 | 13 | 37 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Ajax and Jagiellonia Bialystok?
Our prediction for the Ajax vs Jagiellonia Bialystok match is: Half-Time/Full-Time - Ajax/Ajax.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 29/08/2024 between Ajax and Jagiellonia Bialystok in Europa League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 74.12% for a win of Ajax against Jagiellonia Bialystok with odds of 1.4 at Ladbrokes.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Ajax vs Jagiellonia Bialystok is 7.66% with odds of 501 at Betfair.
- Our prediction model gives a 18.22% chance ⭐ for a win of Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Ajax with odds of 501 at Betfair.
Ajax - Jagiellonia Bialystok Prediction and Best Odds:
| Ajax Jagiellonia Bialystok Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Ajax wins | 74.12% | 1.4 at Ladbrokes |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.69% | 2.2 at Betfair |
| Both Team To Score | 58.33% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : Ajax/Ajax | 42.18% | 3.75 at Betfair |
Ajax vs Jagiellonia Bialystok Form
Ajax and Jagiellonia Bialystok Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Aug 2024 - Europa League
18 Aug 2024 - Eredivisie
15 Aug 2024 - Europa League
11 Aug 2024 - Eredivisie
8 Aug 2024 - Europa League
1 Aug 2024 - Europa League
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Aug 2024 - Europa League
11 Aug 2024 - Eredivisie
25 Jul 2024 - Europa League
19 Jul 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
18 Jul 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
13 Jul 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Aug 2024 - Europa League
18 Aug 2024 - Eredivisie
8 Aug 2024 - Europa League
1 Aug 2024 - Europa League
19 May 2024 - Eredivisie
5 May 2024 - Eredivisie
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
5/6 (83%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Aug 2024 - Ekstraklasa
22 Aug 2024 - Europa League
17 Aug 2024 - Ekstraklasa
13 Aug 2024 - Champions League
7 Aug 2024 - Champions League
3 Aug 2024 - Ekstraklasa
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Aug 2024 - Europa League
17 Aug 2024 - Ekstraklasa
7 Aug 2024 - Champions League
3 Aug 2024 - Ekstraklasa
31 Jul 2024 - Champions League
19 Jul 2024 - Ekstraklasa
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Aug 2024 - Ekstraklasa
13 Aug 2024 - Champions League
27 Jul 2024 - Ekstraklasa
23 Jul 2024 - Champions League
6 Jul 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
18 May 2024 - Ekstraklasa
Ajax vs Jagiellonia Bialystok Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
22 Aug 2024 - Europa League
Ajax - Jagiellonia Bialystok: Form Analysis
Neither Ajax nor Jagiellonia Bialystok were in domestic action over the weekend, as their leagues gave them extra time to prepare for this fixture. That means the last game for the two teams was the 4-1 victory Ajax enjoyed in Poland in the first leg.
The Dutch side have won five of their seven games this season, tasting defeat once in the Europa League and once in the Eredivisie. They have been particularly impressive away from home in Europe, winning all three matches, scoring eight, and conceding just two. Goals have been tighter at home in their two home games, with just one goal scored and one conceded.
Chuba Akpom was the star of the first leg in Poland, netting an impressive hat-trick in that game and he will be keen to find the net again here. No other Ajax player has scored more than one goal in this competition thus far.
Jagiellonia Bialystok had a great start in the Champions League qualifiers, defeating Panevezys 7-1 on aggregate (4-0 away and 3-1 at home). However, they came unstuck against Norwegian side Bodo Glimt, losing 1-0 at home and 4-1 on the road.
That meant dropping into the Europa League playoffs where they faced Ajax and suffered that first leg heavy defeat at home. Adrian Dieguez Grande scoring their only goal in that home leg against their Dutch opponents.
After winning their first three Estraklasa games, Jagiellonia have lost their last two, 4-2 at home to Cracovia Krakow and then 3-1 away to GKS Katowice.
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Ajax against Jagiellonia Bialystok Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Ajax & Jagiellonia Bialystok Squad Analysis
Head coach Francesco Farioli will have to make several decisions regarding who will start this game for Ajax. Will the manager elect a strong attacking team? Or will he pick a more defensive side to defend their three-goal advantage? It's a big consideration especially given Ajax face great rivals Feyenoord at the weekend in De Klassieker.
Kian Fitz-Jim may miss out through injury, though even if he is fit, Farioli may elect to rest him anyway. The vastly experienced pair, goalkeeper Remko Pasveer and midfielder Jordan Henderson, are likely to start. However loanee Daniele Rugani, signed from Juventus, could come into the back four. Brian Brobbey and Bertrand Traore are amongst those who are hoping to make it into the first team from the bench.
They will struggle to dislodge Chuba Akpom in attack after his trio of goals in the first leg of the tie.
Jagiellonia don't have too many injury concerns for this game. Damian Wojdakowski remains out of action for the longer term, due to a cruciate knee ligament injury. But other than that coach Adrian Siemieniec should have a relatively healthy squad to pick from.
Spanish duo Adrien Dieguez and Jesus Imaz will be amongst their most dangerous players, while Imaz could be joined in attack by one from Lamine Diaby-Fadiga, or Afimico Pululu. Pululu scored their only goal in the defeat to Katowice recently.
Most goals and assists
Ajax
Jagiellonia Bialystok
W. Weghorst
(7 Goals)
,
K. Taylor
(7 Goals)
J. Imaz Balleste
(11 Goals)
B. Brobbey
(6 Assists)
,
K. Taylor
(6 Assists)
J. Imaz Balleste
(5 Assists)
, 
K. Hansen
(5 Assists)
Ajax - Jagiellonia Bialystok Key Points
- Ajax have won five of the seven games they have played this season.
- Jagiellonia Bialystok have lost all their last five games, three of which have been at home.
- Ajax had 20 shots on goal in the first leg, 10 of them being on target.
- Ajax were comfortable winners in the first leg, winning 4-1 away from home.
- Jagiellonia have conceded 16 goals in their past five matches.
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Our Ajax vs Jagiellonia Bialystok Prediction
Our prediction for the Ajax Amsterdam vs. Jagiellonia Bialystok Europa League Playoff second-leg tie is: Half-Time/Full-Time - Ajax/Ajax.
Ajax showed their dominance in the first leg of this tie with a comfortable victory and all the data points to a similar outcome in this game. However with the data less certain on both teams scoring, and lacking value in the Over/Under market, the best option we feel here is the HT/FT bet on Ajax to be winning at the end of both halves.
Ajax vs Jagiellonia Bialystok - Other Interesting Predictions
Chuba Akpom (Ajax) to score at any time
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Ajax Jagiellonia Bialystok
| Ajax vs Jagiellonia Bialystok | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax wins | 1.18 | 1.05 | -11.0% |
| Draw | 7 | 11 | +57.1% |
| Jagiellonia Bialystok wins | 12 | 29 | +141.7% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Ajax is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 11.0% since opening
- The probability of this result was 84.7% and is now 95.2% (10.5%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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