England - Carabao Cup
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AFC Wimbledon vs Newcastle Prediction & Betting Tips - Carabao Cup
by Steve Ashfield in Carabao Cup Predictions
Match postponed to October 1st due to flooding
League Two AFC Wimbledon attempt to beat a second Premier League side in this season's Carabao Cup. They host Newcastle United in the third round of this competition. Can they cause an upset? Read our match prediction below.
AFC Wimbledon are fifth in League Two which is three divisions below their opponents. The weekend saw them held to a goalless draw at Bradford City and that ended a run of five successive wins.
The last round of the Carabao Cup saw them beat Premier League Ipswich Town at home. The match ended 2-2 with the match being won on penalties and that took the Dons into the Carabao Cup third round for only the second time.
Before beating Ipswich, the Wombles had come from behind to win 2-1 at fellow League Two side Bromley. AFC Wimbledon are unbeaten in their last eight home league and cup games but face a tough battle to maintain that record.
Newcastle United will see the Carabao Cup as one of their best chances to win a trophy. Last season saw them reach the quarter-finals of this competition and they were Carabao Cup runners-up in the season before that.
The Magpies need to recover from a 3-1 weekend loss at Fulham ending a run of six competitive fixtures without defeat.. In their only Carabao Cup match this season, United also needed a penalty shootout to progress.
They took a first minute lead at Nottingham Forest but ended up drawing 1-1 but going through via penalties. They will make changes for this match but we tip them to beat AFC Wimbledon and lead at both half and full time.
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The Best Betting Odds for AFC Wimbledon v Newcastle Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
11 | 5.25 | 1.29 |
|
|
7 | 3.25 | 1.5 |
|
|
9.9 | 5.65 | 1.3 |
|
|
9.9 | 5.65 | 1.3 |
|
|
10 | 5.25 | 1.25 |
|
|
9 | 5.45 | 1.32 |
|
|
9 | 5.45 | 1.32 |
|
|
9.4 | 5.4 | 1.27 |
|
|
9.8 | 5.6 | 1.29 |
|
|
9.8 | 5.6 | 1.28 |
|
|
10 | 5.8 | 1.31 |
|
|
9 | 5.5 | 1.29 |
|
|
9 | 5 | 1.33 |
|
|
13 | 5.5 | 1.25 |
|
|
11 | 5.5 | 1.3 |
|
|
10 | 4.8 | 1.27 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between AFC Wimbledon and Newcastle?
Our prediction for the AFC Wimbledon vs Newcastle match is: Newcastle to win and lead at half and full time.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 24/09/2024 between AFC Wimbledon and Newcastle in Carabao Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 42.62% for a win of AFC Wimbledon against Newcastle with odds of 13 at Betfair.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between AFC Wimbledon vs Newcastle is 22.59% with odds of 5.8 at Vbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 34.79% chance ⭐ for a win of Newcastle vs AFC Wimbledon with odds of 1.5 at Ladbrokes.
AFC Wimbledon - Newcastle Prediction and Best Odds:
| AFC Wimbledon Newcastle Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon wins | 42.62% | 13 at Betfair |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.15% | 1.82 at Unibet |
| Both Team To Score | 52.38% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : AFC Wimbledon/AFC Wimbledon | 17.52% | 20 at Betfair |
AFC Wimbledon vs Newcastle Form
AFC Wimbledon and Newcastle Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Sep 2024 - League Two
14 Sep 2024 - League Two
31 Aug 2024 - League Two
28 Aug 2024 - Carabao Cup
24 Aug 2024 - League Two
20 Aug 2024 - EFL Trophy
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Sep 2024 - League Two
31 Aug 2024 - League Two
28 Aug 2024 - Carabao Cup
20 Aug 2024 - EFL Trophy
10 Aug 2024 - League Two
27 Jul 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Sep 2024 - League Two
24 Aug 2024 - League Two
17 Aug 2024 - League Two
13 Aug 2024 - Carabao Cup
3 Aug 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
30 Jul 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Sep 2024 - Premier League
15 Sep 2024 - Premier League
1 Sep 2024 - Premier League
28 Aug 2024 - Carabao Cup
25 Aug 2024 - Premier League
17 Aug 2024 - Premier League
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Sep 2024 - Premier League
17 Aug 2024 - Premier League
10 Aug 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
9 Aug 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
11 May 2024 - Premier League
27 Apr 2024 - Premier League
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Sep 2024 - Premier League
15 Sep 2024 - Premier League
28 Aug 2024 - Carabao Cup
25 Aug 2024 - Premier League
3 Aug 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
31 Jul 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
Most goals and assists
AFC Wimbledon
Newcastle
M. Stevens
(8 Goals)
A. Isak
(5 Goals)
J. Reeves
(2 Assists)
A. Isak
(2 Assists)
,
J. Murphy
(2 Assists)
, 
S. Tonali
(2 Assists)
AFC Wimbledon - Newcastle Key Points
- Newcastle had gone six competitive games without defeat before losing to Fulham on Saturday.
- Newcastle have reached at least the quarter-finals of the Carabao Cup in three of the last four seasons.
- AFC Wimbledon have never reached round four of the Carabao Cup.
- Over 90 minutes, Newcastle's only away Carabao Cup loss was in the final two seasons ago.
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Our AFC Wimbledon vs Newcastle Prediction
Newcastle United long to win a trophy and the Carabao Cup is one of their best chances of doing so. They had to go to penalties to win at Nottingham Forest in the last round but that's a good result considering Forest's form.
AFC Wimbledon are going well in League Two and beat Ipswich Town on penalties in the last round. Our AFC Wimbledon v Newcastle prediction is Newcastle to win and lead at half and full time.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis AFC Wimbledon Newcastle
| AFC Wimbledon vs Newcastle | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon wins | 9 | 11 | +22.2% |
| Draw | 5 | 5.25 | +5.0% |
| Newcastle wins | 1.33 | 1.29 | -3.0% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- AFC Wimbledon is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 22.2% since opening
- The probability of this result was 11.1% and is now 9.1% (-2.0%)
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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