Italy - Serie A
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by Kennedy Kechula in Serie A Predictions
AC Milan are set for another big game as they continue with their push for a top four finish in Serie A. The Milan giants will host Lazio at the iconic San Siro Stadium this Sunday in a match that could have far-reaching consequences for both sides. In this preview we will look at the stats ahead of the match before offering two predictions to match the numbers.
Hosts Milan arrive for the match in position eight while visiting Lazio are fifth. The two sides are separated by six points. AC Milan are expected to fight for nothing less than a top four place in Serie A.
However, there’s so little to pick from their season and they will head into this game sitting eight points adrift of the top four. Lazio are also targeting a top four finish in the season and unlike their hosts’ they are much closer but also need to rise from two winless outings.
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The Best Betting Odds for AC Milan v Lazio Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.15 | 3.4 | 3.4 |
|
|
2.15 | 3.5 | 3.25 |
|
|
2.15 | 3.4 | 3.4 |
|
|
2.14 | 3.48 | 3.62 |
|
|
2.14 | 3.48 | 3.62 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between AC Milan and Lazio?
Our prediction for the AC Milan vs Lazio match is: Lazio wins the match.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 02/03/2025 between AC Milan and Lazio in Serie A :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 51.63% for a win of AC Milan against Lazio with odds of 2.2 at Betobet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between AC Milan vs Lazio is 24.24% with odds of 3.7 at Betsson.
- Our prediction model gives a 24.13% chance ⭐ for a win of Lazio vs AC Milan with odds of 3.7 at Betwinner.
AC Milan - Lazio Prediction and Best Odds:
| AC Milan Lazio Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| AC Milan wins | 51.63% | 2.2 at Betobet |
| Under 2.5 | 57.51% | 2.1 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score | 44.17% | 1.68 at Betsson |
| Half-time / Full-time : AC Milan/AC Milan | 25.44% | 3.4 at Bet365 |
AC Milan vs Lazio Form
AC Milan and Lazio's standings in the Serie A
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
7
|
52 | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|
9
|
47 | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
AC Milan and Lazio Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Feb 2025 - Serie A
22 Feb 2025 - Serie A
18 Feb 2025 - Champions League
15 Feb 2025 - Serie A
12 Feb 2025 - Champions League
8 Feb 2025 - Serie A
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Feb 2025 - Champions League
15 Feb 2025 - Serie A
5 Feb 2025 - Coppa Italia
2 Feb 2025 - Serie A
26 Jan 2025 - Serie A
22 Jan 2025 - Champions League
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
5/6 (83%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Feb 2025 - Serie A
22 Feb 2025 - Serie A
12 Feb 2025 - Champions League
8 Feb 2025 - Serie A
29 Jan 2025 - Champions League
18 Jan 2025 - Serie A
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Feb 2025 - Coppa Italia
22 Feb 2025 - Serie A
15 Feb 2025 - Serie A
9 Feb 2025 - Serie A
3 Feb 2025 - Serie A
30 Jan 2025 - Europa League
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Feb 2025 - Serie A
9 Feb 2025 - Serie A
26 Jan 2025 - Serie A
23 Jan 2025 - Europa League
10 Jan 2025 - Serie A
28 Dec 2024 - Serie A
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Feb 2025 - Coppa Italia
22 Feb 2025 - Serie A
3 Feb 2025 - Serie A
30 Jan 2025 - Europa League
19 Jan 2025 - Serie A
5 Jan 2025 - Serie A
AC Milan vs Lazio Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
67 %
17 %
17 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
31 Aug 2024 - Serie A
1 Mar 2024 - Serie A
30 Sep 2023 - Serie A
6 May 2023 - Serie A
24 Jan 2023 - Serie A
24 Apr 2022 - Serie A
AC Milan - Lazio: Form Analysis
Sergio Conceicao is a man under pressure. After leading Milan to the Super Cup. Win earlier in the season, not much has moved in the positive direction.
Going into this game, AC Milan’s hopes of finishing in a Champions League position took a dent in their 2-1 loss to Bologna. There’s no time to cry over spilt milk though; Milan must rise again and give it another go.
The last time they lost three straight league matches was back in 2023 and Milan should be going for the kill against Lazio. They are unbeaten in the last four meetings with Lazio.
AC Milan have dominated previous meetings with Lazio.
Lazio will look at Milan’s woes as a motivation to rise from their three-match winless. They are also aiming at halting Milan’s dominance in this fixture.
Their 2023 win over Milan stands as their only victory in this fixture in the last eight meetings. Goals have dried up for Lazio and that will be a big concern.
This was seen in their latest match, a Coppa Italia defeat at this same venue as they fell 2-0 to Inter Milan. That marked the second straight game in which they failed to score.
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AC Milan against Lazio Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Missing players
Emerson
T. Castellanos
AC Milan & Lazio Squad Analysis
Rafael Leao scored his third goal against Lazio when these teams first met this season, in August. That goal won a point for Milan, who were otherwise heading to defeat.
He comes into this match in good shape too and was on target in midweek. He isn’t the team’s leading scorer but he is a crucial player, heading into this match with 11 goal contributions from 24 matches.
Leao attempted 53 shots, 42% of them being on target and producing six league goals with a 6.18 expected goal rating.
Rafael Leao hasn’t scored at home in a league game.
On the Lazio front, Valentin Castellanos will take the responsibility of leading the goal search. The Argentine has been involved in 12 goals so far, scoring nine and assisting three, all in 22 league matches this season.
Compared to Leao he has a higher attacking range, having attempted 87 shots. His success rate with the shots is, however, low with only 39% being on target. An expected goals return of 12.80 means he is a serious threat.
Most goals and assists
AC Milan
Lazio
C. Pulisic
(13 Goals)
T. Castellanos
(12 Goals)
R. Leao
(8 Assists)
N. Tavares
(9 Assists)
AC Milan - Lazio Key Points
- AC Milan are coming from two straight defeats.
- Milan won just once in their last five matches.
- Lazio are unbeaten in the last four Serie A matches.
- Away from home, Lazio are unbeaten in their last three league matches.
- Milan have lost five times in eight against teams starting this round ahead of them.
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Our AC Milan vs Lazio Prediction
Milan have dominated this fixture, but here they come as underdogs based on recent form. They lost in the last two outings, both Serie A matches. With time moving, things are getting tighter and the pressure is starting to show.
The Rossoneri have struggled against the top teams this season and here they have another tough outing. One of their two home defeats this season was against Napoli, a side ranked higher. Lazio will be aware of this as they look to end their own poor run against Milan. Going by recent form, our prediction for Milan v Lazio is that Lazio wins the match.
AC Milan vs Lazio - Other Interesting Predictions
over 2.5 goals
In this game we expect goals, given the forms shown by both teams. Milan’s last two matches had over 2.5 goals. At home they scored three goals twice in their last five matches.
Meanwhile, in Lazio’s last five away matches, three produced over 2.5 goals. Sticking with these trends, we will back over 2.5 goals as our secondary prediction.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis AC Milan Lazio
| AC Milan vs Lazio | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan wins | 2.1 | 2.15 | +2.4% |
| Draw | 3.5 | 3.4 | -2.9% |
| Lazio wins | 3.4 | 3.4 | 0% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- AC Milan is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 2.4% since opening
- The probability of this result was 47.6% and is now 46.5% (-1.1%)
Use £/€50 free bets for the AC Milan vs. Lazio game!
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AC Milan vs Lazio match : Frequently asked questions
The AC Milan v Lazio match will be played on Sunday 2 March.
The AC Milan v Lazio match will be played at the San Siro Stadium in Milan.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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