A User’s Guide to Making a Sure Bet

Arbitrage

📖Arbitrage Betting Explained
💡How Does It Work?
✨Arbitrage Software?
🚫What Are the Risks?
📽️Avoid Unwanted Attention
📱Arbitrage Calculator
📈Is Arbitrage Right for You?
💬Should You Try?

Have you ever wanted to turn the odds on the sportsbook and take luck out of the equation? That’s the theory behind a sure bet, also known as arbitrage betting, which uses both math and competition to try to guarantee profit for the player.

If you’ve ever heard of arbitrage trading in the stock market, the concept works the same way. Arbitrage traders buy a stock for X, then turn around and sell it for a higher price Y, making money without having to risk any of their own.

An arbitrage betting strategy uses two competing sportsbooks against each other to guarantee a small profit regardless of the odds. It can be done, but it’s not easy to do and can be a quick way to get sportsbooks to hit you with limits or even outright bans. If you want to risk it, here’s what you need to know about arbitrage betting.

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Arbitrage Betting Explained

Here’s a real-world example of how and why arbitrage betting works. Let’s say that you’ve got a game that’s a true coin flip between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Milwaukee Bucks, and you’ve spotted a different price on the game at two different sportsbooks.

At DraftKings, the Cavaliers are -125 with the Bucks at +105.
At FanDuel, it’s reversed; the Cavaliers sit at +105.
If you place a bet of $100 on both sides at the two different sportsbooks, you’re guaranteed $5 in profit. There’s no risk at all to you as a bettor, because you’ve got both outcomes covered at favorable odds. You don’t make much money, but any money made is better than losing money.

But there are drawbacks to this strategy. It requires you to time the market exactly and have favorable odds from at least one sportsbook per outcome. If you can’t find the odds you want, you won’t be able to use this strategy. You’ve also got to be quick at scouring lines across different sportsbooks. Once the books catch wind of a change made at one book, they’ll usually follow suit in short order. If you haven’t timed things right, your arbitrage strategy won’t work.

How Does a Successful Sports Betting Arbitrage Strategy Work?

In order to make an arbitrage sports betting strategy work, you need to have three things at a minimum: deep pockets, multiple accounts and a lot of time. Planning a successful arbitrage strategy requires you to have accounts at different sportsbooks so you can take advantage of their lines.

If you have more than two sportsbooks, that’s even better. You need to be able to spread your bets around so that books can’t catch on to what you’re trying to do. If you use the same two sportsbooks every time you try arbitrage betting, the books will likely figure out what you’re up to with little effort. It’s a lot harder if you’re using six or seven sportsbooks and mix up where you’re placing your bets.

There’s another good reason to use multiple sportsbooks when you try arbitrage betting: you don’t know which book is going to give you the edge. One sport might see Caesars and BetRivers provide the right mathematical combination, while another play might match BetMGM and FanDuel. The more sportsbooks you have available, the easier it is to give yourself a chance to cash in on favorable odds.

You’ll also need to have plenty of funding at each of your sportsbooks. Not only is it hard to take advantage of profitable lines if you don’t have the funds at your disposal, but books can catch on if you’re regularly withdrawing money from your account. Most gamblers don’t win so consistently that they can constantly pull out profit, so sportsbooks consider this a red flag. Getting a good starter fund in each book and leaving it there can help you get your numbers up slowly.

How Does Arbitrage Sports Betting Software Work?

Essentially, arbitrage sports betting software tracks the lines for you and alerts you as to when you have an advantage. The software can scan every legal book in your location, every sport that’s offered and even track the percentages that you’ll win if you try an arbitrage bet.

Of course, this software isn’t free. You’ll have to pay to use these kinds of tracking tools, and you’ll need to factor in whether the expense for them is worth the small profits of arbitrage betting.

That’s one reason why this isn’t a common strategy: you’ve got to make enough bets to make the strategy actually pay off. And the more you wager as an arbitrage bettor, the higher your chances are of attracting attention to yourself.

What Are the Risks Behind Arbitrage Sports Betting?

The biggest risk behind arbitrage sports betting is that the sportsbooks can take notice of what you’re doing. Sportsbooks really hate arbitrage sports betting because it’s money out of their pockets. After all, each time you make an arbitrage bet, you’re guaranteeing that you’re going to win some money. You’re also playing the sportsbooks against each other, which only further irritates them.

Arbitrage sports betting is legal, but that only means that sportsbooks can’t press charges against you for doing it. They can, however, severely restrict your ability to place bets with them, or even ban you entirely. If you’re suspected of arbitrage sports betting, you might get a notification that unusual activity has been detected on your account. This allows the sportsbook to cancel any bets it deems to be suspicious, as well as adding limits to your betting.

Setting limits on your bets can make arbitrage betting no longer worth your time or effort. For most people, if the most they can ever win is a dollar, they’re not going to put in the hour or two it takes to earn it. If that person is using arbitrage sports betting software, the return on investment can be particularly poor.

However, if this still doesn’t deter you, sportsbooks can and will issue a ban. Sportsbooks have the ability to ban anyone they don’t want gambling with them, and they’re pretty clear that they’re intended for recreational bettors only. If they decide you’re a professional, expect them to revoke your ability to bet.

How Can You Avoid Attracting Sportsbook Attention?

Mixing up your bets is one of the best ways to throw sportsbooks off the scent. If you’re a pretty knowledgeable sports fan, you can try setting a limit on your arbitrage betting and throwing in a few bets where you use nothing but your own intuition to attempt to win. Yes, you’ll take a risk of a loss, but that’s better than getting thrown out entirely.

Another way to avoid attention is to avoid strange-looking bets. When you use an arbitrage betting calculator, you’ll have to bet a strange number on one side to maximize your profits. But that’s one of the biggest tells sportsbooks have to suspect someone of arbitrage betting. It’s a much better idea to sacrifice a few cents’ profit to make your bet look less suspicious. For example, if your betting calculator tells you to bet $57.62 on one side, bet $58 instead. You won’t win quite as much as you could have won, but you’ll be less likely to attract unwanted attention.

Finally, throwing in some parlay bets can help throw sportsbooks off the scent. Professional bettors almost never bet parlays because they’re very hard to win. As such, sportsbooks love when you bet parlays because they have a big advantage. If you do happen to win a large amount, they write that off as a freak occurrence. More often than not, you’re going to lose on parlay bets, so these bets can help convince sportsbooks that you’re another recreational bettor.

How Does the Arbitrage Betting Calculator Work?

In a nutshell, when you use an arbitrage betting calculator, the program will analyze the odds offered at each sportsbook and tell you what number would provide the most profit for the game in question. The calculator will take the best odds available on one side of the bet, compare it with the best odds on the other side and let you know how much profit is available on an arbitrage bet.

This still requires you to act quickly, because a bet that’s listed might not last for very long before the odds change. But it does take your own math out of the equation, which can save you some time.

Is Arbitrage Betting Right for You?

It depends on whether you have the time and patience to try to find these mistakes in the market. If you’re willing to try and time the markets to your advantage and you’re willing to accept the risks that come with the sportsbooks frowning on what you’re doing, it can be a good way to make some guaranteed money.

But for a lot of people, it’s really not a great use of their time and it’s not an enjoyable way to bet. Remember, sports betting is supposed to be fun above all else. If you’re constantly trying to time the market and making it into a chore, it’s not going to be very enjoyable for most people. That’s why only a small percentage of the market even bothers with arbitrage sports betting, and an even smaller percentage of those people win most of the money. It can be a worthwhile endeavor, but only for the right kind of person.

Deciding Whether to Try Arbitrage Sports Betting

For most people, arbitrage sports betting isn’t something to include in their sports betting strategy. The rewards simply don’t outweigh the risks, given that sportsbooks are constantly on the lookout for anyone who might be violating these standards. When you have the ability to take money from the sportsbook with 100% accuracy, you probably aren’t going to last very long before the sportsbooks fight back.

If you do decide to try arbitrage sports betting, make sure you do so in a state that features a lot of legal sportsbooks in order to make it harder for sportsbooks to guess what you’re doing. The best place to try this is Colorado, which features a whopping 30 sportsbooks as of 2024. In other states that have little competition, it’s probably not worth the risk, and in states like Florida or New Hampshire, where one book has a monopoly, it’s not even possible.

Bottom line: whether it makes sense for you depends on your location and your mentality. If it fits your personality, it’s definitely worth a try.