What you need to know about betting same-game parlays

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❓What is a same-game parlay?
📋Calculating SGPs
💡Tips for betting on same-game parlays

We have witnessed a lot of growth in the sports betting world over the past few years as the industry continues to grow. At one point in the not-so-distant past, betting parlays with multiple legs from the same game was not allowed. Now, it’s one of the more popular forms of betting in the industry. The creation of the same-game-parlay has changed the sports betting landscape.

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What is a same-game parlay?

The parlay bet has always been one of the more popular types of bet. A parlay bet is simply combining multiple bets into one bet to increase your payout. Of course, the catch is if one leg of your parlay loses, your entire bet is a loser. However, sportsbooks used to not allow parlays that featured multiple legs from the same game. They figured the correlation between certain results was not properly calculated in the payout for a parlay, putting the sportsbook at a disadvantage.

In 2019, FanDuel Sportsbook released the concept of a “same game parlay.” They allowed you to parlay multiple legs from the same game into one bet. You could theoretically include the moneyline, the spread, the total, alternate spreads and totals, first half lines, player props and game props all in the same bet. You could build extravagant parlay bets with multiple legs that often featured crazy payouts.

Of course, the same rules as a normal parlay apply. If one leg of your parlay loses, your entire bet is graded as a loser. They became an extreme profit maker for sportsbooks, just like normal parlays are. However, it’s certainly a fun way to bet a game and bettors love chasing the bigger payouts. Same-game parlays are now one of the more popular bets in the industry.

Calculating the math behind a same-game parlay

The main reason that sportsbooks originally didn’t offer parlays involving multiple legs from the same game was the math involved. They felt they weren’t properly equipped to calculate the correlation between legs. Now, with the advancement of technology, sportsbooks get the specialized technology and math involved from data providers who are extremely good at what they do. Now confident in their ability to price these parlays accurately, sportsbooks are more than willing to push the same-game parlay.

What exactly do we mean by a correlation between multiple legs? It’s quite simply the idea that if one factor happens, another factor is more likely to happen as well. For example, if a quarterback goes over his passing yards prop, his receivers are more likely to go over their receiving yards prop. If a player scores a touchdown, his team is more likely to cover the spread than if he didn’t score a touchdown. Even the spread and total are correlated. When the favorite covers the spread, games are more likely to go over the total. When the underdog covers the spread, it’s more likely the game goes under the total.

A typical parlay featuring two legs in separate games pays out at +260 assuming both lines are set at -110. With a same-game parlay, if you parlay two correlated lines such as the favorite and the over, your payout will be less than +260. Sportsbooks have done the math about the probability involved and adjusted the prices accordingly.

Tips for betting on same-game parlays

While the math might not be in your favor, the chances are you will still at some point place a same-game parlay bet. If you do, here are some tips that are worth following.

Add uncorrelated legs

When building a same-game parlay, we often form a narrative or game script in our head. For example, we think the Kansas City Chiefs will win big and Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce will have a big night. We add the Chiefs spread, Mahomes passing yards and passing touchdown props, and Kelce's receiving yards and anytime touchdown to our bet slip. This is a pretty correlated parlay and the odds will reflect that. However, if the Chiefs are playing the Tennessee Titans, we can add a Derrick Henry touchdown prop into our parlay. That is an uncorrelated leg and will increase our odds on the payout tremendously. It’s certainly reasonable that Henry scores a touchdown even if the Titans lose.

Do your research and find inefficiencies

This tip applies to sports betting in general, but the upside is magnified in a same-game parlay. Maybe a backup running back is starting to get more snaps and touches, but the sportsbooks haven’t adjusted his odds to account for that. Maybe there’s an injury that will positively impact the usage of another player on the injured player’s team. These factors might be overlooked by sportsbooks but can be easily discovered with some extra research.

Shop for the best lines

This is another tip that applies to sports betting in general, but the impact is felt strongly in same-game parlays. Some sportsbooks account more for correlation than others. Other sportsbooks have more favorable odds for touchdown bets or alternate lines. Before placing your same-game parlay bet, make sure to build the same bet on a few different sportsbooks and see which one offers the best payout.

Same-game parlays are certainly an exciting way to bet on sports. However, as a smart sports bettor, you must understand the math and how it is working against you. The house has an even bigger edge than normal when you are betting a same-game parlay.

However, you’re going to bet these same game parlays anyway. There’s nothing wrong with that. Be smart, stay within your means, and try to find an edge that would allow you to cash in on an outlier situation. It’s easier said than done, but it can certainly be done.