NFL Prop Bets: Developing Your Strategy and Finding the Right Plays

How

🏈What Are NFL Prop Bets?
❓Fun Prop Bets?
📊Prop Bet Strategy
✅Conclusion

On NFL game days, the stories around the games become as interesting as the games themselves. Thanks to fantasy football, you’ll see fans of one team cheering for a totally different game because they need a touchdown from a certain player.

NFL prop bets work the same way. With prop betting, the score doesn’t matter; your only concern is if the stat you picked happens. That allows any game to have value, as any player could be worth a bet.

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What Are NFL Prop Bets?

NFL prop bets offer action on a specific outcome at any point in the game. These bets don’t have anything to do with the final score of the game; they’re tied to outcomes within the game, such as yardage, completions and touchdowns. There are also prop bets that have nothing to do with the game’s action, such as how long the halftime show will take during the Thanksgiving Day football games.

Prop bets are a popular way to bet the NFL because they can happen at any point in the game. If you’ve bet on the Cincinnati Bengals to win by 7 against the Baltimore Ravens and the Bengals are down 24-13 in the third quarter, your chances of cashing your bet are pretty dim. But if you’ve bet on Ja’Marr Chase to score a touchdown, that can happen at any point in the game. No matter what the score, a prop bet can always be just a play or two away.

Betting on a player’s individual stats is also a popular form of NFL prop betting. With these bets, the sportsbook assigns a target to a player for yards, completions, attempts and more. These are full-game bets, so you’re betting on whether the player will go over or under the targeted number over the course of the game. For example, you could bet on Patrick Mahomes to go over or under 255.5 passing yards. Your bet would be tied entirely to his passing total and whether he exceeds that mark.

How Do Fun NFL Prop Bets Differ From Skilled Prop Bets?

When you’re betting on a player to get 20 carries, gain 100 yards, score a touchdown or even throw an interception, you’re basing that information on their stats and history on the field. These are called skilled prop bets, because there’s information you can use to your advantage to increase your odds of winning.

During big events, such as the Super Bowl or Thanksgiving football, you’ll see bets that don’t involve much, if any, strategy. Betting the outcome of the coin toss is literally a coin flip, but it’s one of the most popular Super Bowl bets to make. People bet on Super Bowl prop bets not because they have a genuine strategy, but because they just want to have fun during the game.

Other fun prop bets include things such as what color Gatorade the coach will have poured on him just after the game ends, or who the first player will be to touch the Super Bowl trophy. There’s no way to know to study for this possible bet, so this kind of bet is just go give yourself a chance to have some fun for your Super Bowl party or to give yourself something to look forward to at the end of the game.

Skilled prop bets, by contrast, focus on information that happens on the field of play. These bets can be planned for based on past performance, team strategy and the opponent in question, making them a favorite of more serious bettors.

What Strategy Exists for NFL Prop Bets?

Just like betting the point spread or the total, there’s some strategy that goes into NFL prop bets. One key strategy is to pick props that align with your thoughts about how the game will unfold. For example, if the New England Patriots are facing the New York Jets, you might not want to bet on high totals from either quarterback. Both Mac Jones and Zach Wilson have been suspect with the football, and both defenses have been known to shine in that rivalry.

Another strategy is to analyze the defense and what they do well and what they do poorly. In 2023, the Denver Broncos have been one of the worst teams in the league at defending the deep pass. If the Houston Texans come up against the Broncos, Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud will likely throw the deep pass more than a few times during the game. These can represent good opportunities to take a Houston wide receiver to go over their receiving yards total.

Finally, you don’t want to go crazy with prop bets. There are plenty of options each NFL Sunday for prop bets, but any bet is difficult to hit. A good strategy is to make a couple bets on a player you feel good about to hit their numbers, plus throw in a touchdown scorer to take advantage of positive odds. Touchdown bets are tough, so you’ll likely get odds of +150 or better on most scorers. That can fuel your bankroll for the week.

Conclusion

NFL prop bets offer a different way to view a game and still find ways to make money. Whether you choose to bet on a favorite player, bet against a player on a rival or ride with a top touchdown scorer, you’ll find lots of opportunities for wagers. By adding prop bets to your NFL betting strategy, you can open up plenty of possibilities to find market inefficiencies — and have a lot of fun doing it.