How to Bet MLB Futures?

MLB Futures Betting

Unlike other sports, the MLB season is a long slog, and having a season-long bet can help you get through the dreary points of the year. If baseball hits a point where you need a break, you can always step away for a week and know that your play is still on track.

It’s also a much safer way to make a play. Baseball can be a highly unpredictable sport, as so much depends on whether or not the pitcher has a good day. A standout pitcher can turn a projected loss into a win just from his presence, and running into him can turn a series win into a potential loss if a favorite drops one of the other two games.

Bullpens are also highly unpredictable, which is why first-five inning bets are so popular.

That’s also why it’s been said that anything can happen in the playoffs, but over 162 games, the best team always wins. And that’s why futures bets are so popular: they play out over the course of the season, and you can focus on teams’ overall strengths and weaknesses instead of trying to catch lightning in a bottle.

Before you place one, here are a few things you need to keep in mind so that you give yourself the best chance to make a correct prediction.

🏆Know Who's Trying to Win
🔍Know the Schedule
💡Know the Divisions
⚾Know the Prospects
📈Don't Chase Trends

Know Who’s Trying to Win

This is a big difference from football, where there is no such thing as a rebuilding year. Every team in the NFL tries to make the playoffs every season, in large part because there is a guaranteed path to the playoffs and you only have to beat three other teams to make it. While baseball gives a guaranteed path to the playoffs, the length of the schedule means that it’s virtually impossible for a bad team to luck its way into the postseason. If a team doesn’t have the players, there is little point for them to go for a playoff spot.

Certain teams may be in a rebuilding phase, with little to no hope of a playoff race in a given season. And that’s because they aren’t trying to win the pennant. Of course, they aren’t trying to lose, but their goal is to give their young players some experience against major league competition so they learn what it takes to win at this level.

That means a team like that will lose a lot, and the teams that play them most will probably win more than they should. So it’s a good idea to know which teams you want to see on the schedule more often, and which ones you don’t.

MLB Futures with FanDuel

Know the Schedule

The schedules are more balanced now, so you won’t see situations like you did years ago when the Yankees and Red Sox got healthy by beating up on the Orioles 19 times in a year. Teams don’t play their division opponents that many times anymore.

But that said, the schedule still matters. The order in which you play other teams makes a big difference because if a team gets its easy games out of the way early, it can build up a head of confidence and have a better season than it should. Conversely, a bad start can crush confidence and make a team start to panic.

Knowing which games are after the trade deadline also matters. If you play a team that’s likely to be bad in August and especially September, they’re likely to be putting out their best prospects. That means you’ll be seeing some players who are currently on college rosters and won’t be drafted until the summer. Knowing how the strategy can change for the front office is important to making the right selections.

Know the Divisions

A team’s division can change its way of thinking quite a bit. If you play in a highly competitive division with multiple top teams, you’re under no delusions that you have any chance at winning the division if you’re in a rebuild. Those teams know that they’re in the midst of a rebuild, and they cannot compete with the top dogs in the division.

But what about divisions with closer parity? In these divisions, multiple teams could easily see themselves competing with the top teams, especially if one of them stumbles out of the gate. It’s not a stretch at all to suggest that one of them could make a run and have a better season than it expects. That makes them all good over candidates for their win totals, as they’re likely to keep trying to win games all season long.

Know the Prospects

Knowing which teams have their best prospects where is an overlooked part of making futures plays. There are two things you can glean from where a team’s best prospects are: what their best case scenario is likely to be, and what their worst case scenario is likely to be.

Some teams are known to have strong farm systems, like the Cubs for example. Having a strong farm means that you can count on the Cubs to provide depth and flexibility throughout the season. If the Cubs have a great start to the year, they can be buyers and part with a top prospect or two for that missing piece. If they struggle and sell, they’ll promote their top players from Iowa to Chicago. In either case, the Cubs likely have a high floor for wins in this scenario.

Of course, this means that the inverse is also true for teams with weak farm systems in place. These teams’ best prospects are at the Double-A level or lower. Nobody that these weaker farm systems values is really ready for the Show, so they’re likely going to have a pretty low ceiling. If (when?) they struggle, they don’t have quality replacements for traded veterans waiting in the minors. Down the stretch, they might become an easy out. And that means that teams who play against them in September might pick up some soft wins.

Don’t Chase Trends

The reason to play a season-long bet is to avoid the trends that come with baseball’s random nature. While you can jump in on a futures play at any point, it’s a much wiser move to jump in once and then trust your original feelings. Trying to chase an outcome isn’t likely to work, as it’s very difficult to time the futures markets correctly.

Above all, have fun. The best reason to choose a futures play is to give yourself something to root for or against. Finding a play you like and riding it out can give you plenty of reason to stay plugged in all season.