MLB Betting Guide: Our Expert Baseball Betting Strategies

Baseball Betting

With a total of over 2,400 regular season baseball games, MLB provides more betting opportunities than any other sport. The marathon of the regular season is followed by a packed, entertaining postseason, where there is plenty of value to be found.

Baseball fans can wager on games throughout the year. In the offseason, bettors can analyze futures markets from MVP to division winners and win totals.

Those who want to bet on baseball are spoilt for choice. Sports betting continues to be legalized across the country, with a catalog of sportsbooks enabling you to start betting on baseball games. For more information, check out our MLB picks page!

⚾️Baseball Bet Tips
📊MLB Rule Changes
📈MLB Strategies
🥇Best MLB Sportsbooks

Bet on Baseball: Our Baseball Betting Tips

If you’re new to betting on MLB, you might need to have baseball odds explained. While it can seem intimidating at first, it doesn’t take much to understand how baseball betting works.

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Moneyline Bets

A moneyline bet is simply a wager on which team will win the game. These 'team to win' bets can be placed on any game from the opening days of Spring Training through to the decisive games of the World Series.

This is the most straight-forward way to place a baseball bet. Some baseball betting sites will allow you to cash out moneyline bets before the final score of the game is known, and others run early payout promotions if the team you’ve backed takes a commanding lead.

For instance, if you have placed a bet on the Yankees moneyline against the Red Sox, your bet will only be paid out as a winner if the Yankees win the game.

Runline

The runline is baseball’s version of the spread. With more scoring in the NBA and NFL, bettors are accustomed to seeing sizeable spreads. The runline is generally only 1.5 in either direction.

The favorite will be listed as -1.5, meaning they need to win by two clear runs for the bet to land. The underdog will likely be listed at +1.5. This is usually a way to get close to even odds for both teams, but that will not always be the case in MLB. Some sportsbooks will offer baseball bettors alternate runlines, which can be another way to find value.

If the Dodgers are favored over the Padres, they will likely be -1.5 on the runline. Los Angeles would need to win by two runs for the bet to cash. If they were to win 2-1, 3-2, 4-3 or any other one-run win, the bet would lose. In that circumstance, the Padres +1.5 would be a winning wager despite them losing the game.

Game Total

Baseball betting pages will generally show you the moneyline, runline and game total for each game before clicking on the game-specific page. This market will be familiar to anyone who has bet on other sports.

This is about the total number of runs scored in the game. Sportsbooks set a ‘line’ and bettors then bet on over or under that number. If the ‘line’ is set at 8.5, and you bet on the over, your bet will win if there are nine or more total runs in the game.

Most MLB games will see the total set between 7.5 and 10.5. Games at Coors Field will generally be a bit higher, with some lines set in the teens.

Let’s take a Cubs and Cardinals game at Wrigley Field. If the total is set at 7.5 and you bet the under, you need there to be seven or fewer total runs in the game regardless of which team wins. If it finishes 5-3, for example, your bet would be a loser, but at 4-3 it would be a winner.

Prop Bets

The leading baseball betting sites give bettors a selection of player props for each game. These markets are focused on an individual players performance in a specific game.

Hits, total bases, home runs and strikeouts are four of the staples for hitters. Pitchers’ player props markets include outs, strikeouts, earned runs, walks and whether they will get the win.

Many of these markets follow the same over/under format as the game total. If we take Aaron Judge as an example, the ‘line’ might be set at 1.5 for his total bases. If you bet the over, he needs to register two or more total bases in the game for the bet to pay out.

Futures Bet

An MLB futures bet is a wager on a future event or multiple events. These are often placed a long way in advance, meaning bettors can have to wait several months for their bet to be decided.

Futures markets often provide bettors with longer odds. Betting on the World Series winner before and during the season can be very lucrative. Division winner and league winner markets are also available almost year-round.

On the player front, sportsbooks will offer markets on MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year. Some will go the extra mile and allow you to wager on season-long player statistical marks like home runs, saves and strikeouts.

At some point during the offseason, sportsbooks will release win totals for every MLB team. This is a case of betting on over or under the set number of wins. If the Phillies’ line is 87.5 and you take the under, they need to win 87 or fewer games for your bet to pay out. It can pay out early if becomes mathematically impossible for your bet to lose.

Futures bets will often have cash out options. It’s worth keeping track of your live bets throughout the season.

Parlays

Parlays are a great way to access some longer odds when betting on baseball. A parlay combines multiple wagers, with potentially sizeable payouts. For your parlay to be marked as a winner, you need all of the selections to be winners.

If you backed the Giants, Yankees and Astros to win, you would need all three to win their games for your bet to pay out. You can also combine different markets. Perhaps you’d want to take the Dodgers -1.5, over 4.5 runs for the Diamondbacks and back the Braves to win.

Many baseball betting sites will also give you the option to construct a same-game parlay. This is just as it sounds – you make multiple selections from the same game to construct a parlay. One way of doing this would be to take the Yankees moneyline, over 5.5 Yankees runs, and over 6.5 strikeouts for Gerrit Cole. Again, the bet would only be marked as a winner if all three of those picks land.

First Five Innings

Betting on the first five innings of MLB games has increased in popularity in recent years. With starting pitchers rarely going deep into games, this is a way for bettors to cut out some of the unpredictability that comes with relief pitchers.

Reputable sportsbooks will offer the moneyline, total and runline for the first five innings. You will likely have access to other markets, too.

This is a particularly good option if a team has an unreliable bullpen behind a good starter. If you like Spencer Strider to dominate early on, it could be worth taking the Braves to win the first five innings instead of going with the runline or moneyline.

Some baseball betting sites also offer betting options on the first three innings and first seven innings.

Impact of Recent MLB Rule Changes

Whether you’re a veteran of baseball betting or are going to try it out for the first time in 2024, you may well be wondering about the impact of recent rule changes. The fundamentals of baseball betting explained have not changed, yet they have given bettors some more factors to consider.

The pitch clock, three-batter minimum and banning of defensive shifts are the three most significant recent rule changes. Game times have declined drastically thanks to the pitch clock, while the defensive shift has helped some pull hitters.

The three-batter minimum might not seem like it has a betting impact. It has, however, altered how teams construct their rosters and influences how managers will utilize their bullpen.

The restrictions on shifts are worth considering when making a player prop bet. Some hitters benefited more than others from the change. In the same way, the pitch clock was trickier to adapt to for some pitchers than others.

Sports Betting - Major League Baseball Betting Strategies

With multiple ways to bet on baseball, each bettor will devise their own baseball betting strategy. It’s a case of seeing what works, and finding angles that give you an advantage. The type of bets range from which team will win the World Series, bet on a team, baseball props, and a simple bet on the total.

While you may tweak your strategy over time, these are a few areas to consider when betting on baseball.

Weather

It’s always worth looking at the weather forecast for a game before deciding on your wagers. Warmer conditions can mean the ball flies further. Potential rain interruptions can alter the dynamic of a game, and might change which pitchers are used.

At Oracle Park, Wrigley Field and some other ballparks, wind is especially relevant. The ballparks can be ultra-pitcher friendly on some days. If the wind direction is helping hitters, it might make you think twice about taking the under.

Matchups

Look into player and team matchups when weighing up your bets. While there can be some use researching a specific pitcher’s performance against a team, it’s often more informative to look into how teams have fared against similar opponents.

If a team are stacked with lefty hitters, and have been worse against southpaws than righties, it’s worth taking that into consideration if they are facing Max Fried.

Similar analysis can be done with how teams have performed against high velocity pitching or groundball arms. Even the best line ups have their weaknesses – if a team is reliant on hitting homers, they might be vulnerable against a pitcher that excels at keeping the ball in the park.

Very patient offenses can take advantage of pitchers with control issues. They might also struggle against pitchers with exceptional command, such as Seattle’s George Kirby.

Head-to-head records

Head-to-head records are a staple of baseball betting. Even with the new schedule, divisional opponents become very familiar with each other.

Some teams have a knack for upping their game against certain opposition. Others will struggle repeatedly against the same team. While the sample sizes are often relatively small, it is still worth taking a look at previous matchups to see if there are any trends.

This can be useful with starting pitchers. If Walker Buehler has had a string of poor outings against the Diamondbacks, that could be enough to put you off backing the Dodgers.

Injuries

As in any sport, it’s important to keep track of injuries in MLB betting. Checking the injured list will show you which players are unavailable, but further research is required to check the latest news.

Some players might be day-to-day. Pitchers can see their starts pushed back. A back-end reliever being out of action after pitching on consecutive days is going to be a factor for bettors.

Team’s beat writers are the best place to find injury updates. Long-term injury absences are obviously a major influence on MLB futures.

Using statistics

Baseball is a stats-focused sport. Broadcasters use statistics throughout games, and sports bettors have access to all kinds of data.

Baseball Reference, Fangraphs and Baseball Savant are three must-visit sites for baseball betting. Advanced metrics are widely accessible for MLB fans, with expected numbers being particularly useful for betting.

Fangraphs’ projections are worth checking out for your futures wagers, plus their range of filters help you to locate the stats you’re looking for. Baseball Reference has the broadest coverage, including team and player game logs and splits.

Betting trends

With betting on MLB growing in popularity each season, there is a vast amount of data for betting trends. If you’re keen on spread betting, looking into a team’s against-the-spread record is very useful. You can also find out how they have done on the total throughout the season.

Team Rankings is a site worth bookmarking. They show MLB betting trends for each season dating back to 2007 – you can view how frequently each team has hit the over, covered the runline or won straight-up. The site also lets you sort by situation, including as a favorite, as an underdog, against divisional opponents and much more.

Live Bet

Live betting on baseball, particularly in major league games, has become increasingly popular among sports enthusiasts. This form of betting allows you to wager on various aspects of the game as it unfolds, offering dynamic odds that change in response to the on-field action. For those looking to start betting on MLB games, it's crucial to understand the betting basics and develop effective MLB betting strategies. From betting the moneyline, where you pick a team to win the game, to exploring more complex bets like MLB prop bets or run line betting, the options are diverse.

One of the most thrilling aspects of live betting is the ability to bet on the total number of runs scored or even on specific outcomes within different innings. This makes understanding the nature of baseball and its unpredictable moments vital for a successful MLB bettor. It's also essential to keep an eye on betting trends and to learn how to bet wisely, using baseball betting tips and strategies from reputable sources. Whether you're betting on which team will win the game, the point spread, or the run line in baseball, live betting adds an exciting layer to watching major league baseball games, turning every pitch and hit into a potential betting opportunity.

Best Sportsbooks for Betting on MLB

There are so many sportsbooks to choose from when betting on MLB. The big names like DraftKings, FanDuel and Caesars all have plenty of MLB markets whether you’re wanting to place a World Series future, wager on the first five innings or make a live bet.

Bettors have plenty to consider when weighing up the leading sites to bet on baseball. Odds need to be competitive, and it’s important they cater for a wide-ranging selection of MLB markets. The usability of their website and app is something to consider, too. The best baseball betting sites will have exceptional customer service platforms, with numerous ways to contact them.

It’s always worth looking at different sportsbooks before betting on MLB. You might find BetMGM have better odds than FanDuel on some markets, while DraftKings and Caesars could be leading the way elsewhere.