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What is the Martingale System in Betting?

Martingale System for Sports Betting

Table of contents

  1. đź’ˇAll about Martingale
  2. ✨Martingale in use
  3. 🔍Risks of Martingale?
  4. âś…Conclusion

The “Martingale System” is a technique widely used by casino players. Normally, it’s used in games to make bets on even odds—such as choosing black or red on a classic roulette wheel—though the technique can apply anywhere, no matter the odds. The system is sometimes favored because of its theoretical certainly, as you can always win a profit eventually *if* you have an unlimited bankroll and there are no betting limits. Otherwise, it’s just a simple, straightforward strategy to implement.

Given that this is a sports betting site, in this article, we’ll try and explain how and when you could use this technique when betting on an online sportsbook.

The Martingale Betting System: In-depth

Martingale betting is a very old system. Originally created by and for casino players, betting using the Martingale System in sports is no different, and in any context, it’s simple to understand. Effectively, here’s what you need to know:

  • In the event of losing bet(s), you double your stakes to cover all your previous losses and eventually make a profit equal to your original wager on the first winning bet in a series.

This could be used on any sports bet, based on point spread, moneyline, or over/under—or any style of bet, whatsoever. Generally, it’s preferable to maintain the same style of bet (same team or expected result) for the duration of your Martingale betting run so that your odds will stay more or less consistent. If not, you’ll need to re-calculate your follow-on bets using the formula below:

  • Bet = (P+B)/(C-1)

Where:

P = Cumulative amount of previous losses

B = Desired profit

C = Decimal odds

Once you've won a bet, even after several losing bets, you will have recouped your losses so long as you followed the technique correctly. Then, the next step is to start over at the beginning, reverting to your initial wager once more—and repeat the process.

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Example Using the Martingale Betting System

Let's say you’re betting on the NBA, and you choose to bet on the moneyline for the Dallas Mavericks. If you decide to go this route, it makes the most sense to stick with the same team to maintain “balanced” odds.

  1. Initial Bet: Bet $10 on the Mavs to win. If they win, you take your $10 profit and start again with a $10 wager on the next game.
  2. First Loss: If the Mavericks lose, your next bet is $20 on their next game.
  3. Second Loss: If they lose again, you bet $40 on their next game.
  4. Third Loss: Your next wager will need to be $80.
  5. Win: After three losses in a row, Dallas finally wins on your bet of $80, and you recover all previous losses and make a profit equal to your initial $10 bet ($10+20+40 = $70 in total prior losses vs $80 of winnings on the final bet)

General Applications of the Martingale System in Sports Betting

Moneyline Bets on Favorites

Scenario: Betting on the moneyline for a favorite team in a series of games. Assuming they are relatively evenly matched, you could bet on the Tampa Bay Devil Rays or the Minnesota Twins if they were playing each other in a series of four games.

  • Example: You bet on the Minnesota Twins to win their next game. If they lose, you double your bet on their next game. You continue doubling your bet until they win against the Devil Rays. If they don’t win a single game out of the four game series, theoretically you’ll have to analyze if you want to continue for their following series based on whomever their next opponent will be. A true Martingale-style bet would continue with betting on the same team (regardless of the opponent) until they win, because they undoubtedly will again at some point. However, if the next series of games had them playing a much stronger team, the odds would be much longer, so you may want to revamp your bet amounts accordingly.

Over/Under Bets

Scenario: Betting on the over/under total points in a series of games.

  • Example: You bet on the "over" in a basketball game. If you lose, you double your bet on the next game's "over" bet. Stick with the same type of bet, generally same team, same outcome.

Betting on Draws in Soccer

Scenario: Betting on matches to end in a draw, which often have higher odds and can be used strategically.

  • Example: You bet on a soccer match to end in a draw. If it doesn’t, you double your bet on the next match you predict might end in a draw.

Point Spread Bets

Scenario: Betting on teams to cover the spread in consecutive games.

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What are the Risks of Martingale in Sports Betting?

Of course, this system isn't perfect—it’s just one option that works well for some bettors, which explains why it has staying power. Clearly, there are risks to begin with in the world of sports betting, the use of the Martingale system can augment those risks.

The real limit of the Martingale system lies in its practical application. In the event of a bad series, the stakes quickly become very high. Using a classic martingale, a series of five losing bets at odds of 2 means that the stake on your 6th bet must equal 32 times the initial stake! Many bettors won’t necessarily maintain a large bankroll, or want to bet hefty sums, so this can be tricky.

The biggest drawback of sports betting in the Martingale style is that unlike the red/black of roulette, sports odds are never fixed and can fluctuate wildly. You’ll need to take this into account, if you’re betting on the same team who is constantly facing different challengers and compute your follow-on bets based on the changing odds landscape.

Conclusion

In our opinion, the Martingale system is not in itself a very good way of making long-term profits. The only way to do this is to calculate probabilities that are consistently more accurate than the sportsbooks’ predictions. Given this reality, the Martingale system isn't necessarily the best for less experienced bettors, unless you’re just trying it out for fun. You'll need a certain amount of experience to master it, given that there's obviously a significant risk of loss.  

The unpredictable nature of both good and bad streaks means that you could stand to lose a good bit of money before breaking even, specifically when using this Martingale style, when bad streaks come along and you want to keep going with the hopes of making up for it. The flip side is, if you stick with the same style of betting, you are certain to eventually win and make up your losses.

Give this novel approach to sports betting a try sometime if you feel so inclined!

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