Guide to Making Smarter Moneyline Bets

Smarter Moneyline Bets

❓How Moneyline Betting Works
📊Betting the Spread vs Moneyline
💡Moneyline Strategies
📈When to Place a Moneyline Bet?
✅What Happens if There is a Tie?

Moneyline bets are one of the most popular sports wagers. Often, the moneyline odds will be available before other markets. Most bookmakers will list the moneyline prices at the top of a game-specific page -- they will usually be listed alongside the spread and total on the main page for a given sport.

Whether you’re just getting into online betting or you’ve been honing your strategy for a few years, this article could be useful to you. We are going to cover exactly what moneyline betting is, some potential strategies, timings, and more.

Let’s learn a bit more about moneyline betting.

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How Moneyline Betting Works

Moneyline betting is wagering on the outcome of a game. Betting on a team’s moneyline is simply a bet on them to win that specific game. It’s the most straightforward wager in sports betting, and will be a good entry point for anyone new to online sports gambling.

For example, a moneyline bet in the NBA could be backing the Golden State Warriors against the Boston Celtics. For your moneyline wager to payout, you would need the Warriors to win the game. Sometimes this will include an overtime outcome, but this is worth double-checking before committing to your bet.

Unlike the standard spread and total, you can get some very short and very long odds when betting on the moneyline. If you’ve got a dominant NFL team against a team with a 0-10 record, their moneyline price could be -500 or even shorter.

On the flip side, underdogs can give sizeable payouts even with a relatively small moneyline wager. For instance, a team with a +500 moneyline price upsetting the odds and winning the game would return $60 for a wager of $10.

Betting the Spread vs Moneyline

The key difference between a moneyline bet and betting against the spread is a moneyline wager is only focused on the outcome of the game. Betting against the spread is focused on the margin of victory – backing the winning team/player doesn’t necessarily mean your bet wins.

As a result, moneyline wagers are easier to follow and require less understanding for rookie bettors. All you need to know is who won the game.

With betting against the spread, things can get a bit more complicated. Say you’ve backed the Chiefs -6.5 against the Bills. The Chiefs winning doesn’t tell you if your bet has won – you need Kansas City to have won by seven or more points for your wager to payout.

The popularity of moneyline betting compared to spread betting depends on the sport and bookmakers. In general, though, more people bet on the spread in football and basketball, partly due to the higher number of points scored.

Moneyline bets on underdogs are a high-risk, high-reward strategy compared with giving a team points on the spread. In sports like baseball and hockey, it will often make sense to take the underdog on the moneyline rather than back them against the runline or puckline.

Moneyline Strategies

If you’re considering placing some moneyline wagers, it’s important to work out your strategy. The bet itself might be simple, but there is still a lot to consider before placing your bets.

Here are some moneyline strategies to bear in mind:

Lengthy Underdog Odds

Underdogs can be at some seriously long odds on the moneyline. There is an opportunity for some sizeable returns if you back the right underdog. Take an NBA team heading for the lottery against the defending champions on the right night, and you could get odds up to +1000.

Of course, there is risk associated with this strategy. It’s far from foolproof. There’s a reason teams are such heavy underdogs, and there’s no guarantee of success. Still, the temptation of taking an underdog on the moneyline is there and there is considerable potential for profit.

Research the Books

Like with any market, it is paramount that you research different bookmakers. Odds comparison tools make this process much easier. Even once you have decided on a wager, it’s worth your time to look around at other sportsbooks to see if another site is offering the same bet at a longer price.

While the best sports betting sites will regularly provide the longest moneyline prices, a double-check is still necessary. It might only be a marginal advantage on one wager, but this can build up to a considerable profit over a period of time if you continue to make smart betting decisions.

This is also relevant to different offers and promotions associated with moneyline wagers. Cash out and early payouts can vary between bookies. All of these factors need to be considered when deciding on a sportsbook – this should be a staple of your moneyline betting strategy.

Parlays with Favorites

Bettors should be wary of parlays. It’s easy to get lured in by the long odds, but wagering on too many parlays/accumulators is rarely a profitable strategy. There are times when it makes sense, however, and part of the art of moneyline betting is knowing when it’s time to combine a few picks.

The short prices with some moneyline favorites lend themselves to parlays. It doesn’t need to be extravagant, but even a treble could get you to some reasonable odds.

As an example, backing the Celtics, Lakers and Bucks as heavy favorites might get you to around evens. If they’re all favoured by a few points, and perhaps have homecourt, maybe even a rest advantage, then all three winning seems reasonable, doesn’t it? This can be a way to find some value if you don’t like the spread in either direction for those games.

Late Roster News

Moneyline prices can move considerably in the build-up to a game. Giannis Antetokounmpo being ruled out is going to swing the Bucks’ price. Patrick Mahomes going from questionable to available will switch things up considerably.

Bettors need to keep their finger on the pulse with roster news. That means checking social media and news outlets for updates. Switch those notifications on, follow beat writers, and make sure you know exactly who is and isn’t available.

A star’s injury status will be headline news, but you also need to check for less glamorous information. A team being without three key relievers is significant. The same goes for an offensive tackle being unavailable or a team missing their best perimeter defender.

There are times when betting early on a game can be advantageous if the opening odds are good. On other occasions, though, it will be worth waiting until closer to the start time to have as much information as possible.

Betting Trends

Betting trends are a bigger part of sporting discourse. Much is focused on the total and spread, but it’s a factor to consider when looking into moneyline odds, too.

Sites like teamrankings.com allow bettors to filter moneyline records by numerous criteria. This tool is invaluable for sports bettors. You can look back at previous seasons. You can filter the record by how teams perform after a loss, how they fare with a rest advantage, and how they get on against non-conference opposition.

The options don’t end there. Looking at betting trends can give you an edge on the bookmaker. For instance, has a team got a knack for snatching wins when they’re an underdog? What if a team has really struggled when favored on the road?

Sports betting is often about recognizing patterns. The accessibility of betting trends data makes it easier than ever to do so.

When to Place a Moneyline Bet?

Moneyline odds are available soon after the team has finished their previous game. You can also place live moneyline bets once the game has got underway.

Deciding on a moneyline bet rather than wagering on a team to cover the spread requires a thorough thought process. Yes, the odds can be tempting with an underdog on the moneyline, but you need to properly evaluate the matchup to decide if the moneyline is the way to go. Most sportsbooks will give you alternate spreads if you want to land somewhere between the moneyline and standard spread.

Bettors will often lean to the moneyline when the spread is on the smaller side. If the Cavaliers are only favoured by 1.5 points over the Heat, then it might just be safer to take the moneyline. This then takes out the potential for a one-point win, which could come with a heave at the end of the game or free throws.

On the other side, the moneyline can be a good option if you like the look of an underdog. Say you fancy the Jets over the Dolphins, and the Jets are 2.5-point underdogs. You would need the Jets to keep it within a field goal for them to cover anyway, so why not take the lengthier price on the moneyline?

The wager itself might be straight-forward, but the decision-making process for a moneyline bet is still complex.

What Happens if There is a Tie?

This depends on the specifics of the market. If you are betting on a two-way moneyline (like you will find for the NFL), your bet will be a push if the game ends in a tie. You will be refunded your stake.

For a three-way moneyline, you will lose the wager if you bet on either team and the game ends in a tie.

Most major sportsbooks will include overtime for games that do not end in ties, so their moneylines are two-way. It is a good idea to double-check this before placing a bet, however, to make sure that your moneyline wager will still be alive if the game goes to overtime or extra innings.