Bet with the Kelly Criterion

Kelly Criterion

📖How to Use Kelly Criterion
👍Kelly Criterion Benefits
🔍Drawbacks of the Strategy
✅Tips for Success
❓Worth Using?

When placing bets on sports at an online bookmaker, it is essential to have proper bankroll management strategies in place. The goal is to minimize losses while increasing the potential for profits. With the Kelly Criterion, bettors will be able to calculate how much money should be bet when the true odds and given odds have a difference.

By adhering to this betting strategy, the rate of capital growth will be maximized. There are free Kelly Criterion calculators that can be accessed online. After learning more about this strategy, bettors will see why this can be a great addition to an existing betting strategy for long-term profits.

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How to Use the Criterion While Sports Betting

The principle of this betting strategy is pretty simple and it revolves around placing a bet as large as the probability of winning, minus the chance of a loss. The formula used will also calculate the optimal amount for placing a bet. By using this strategy bettors can determine how much they should wager to have the best chances of earning a profit. Simply apply this formula when wagering: Bet amount = Odds x probability – 1 divided by odds – 1.

To simplify this, let’s take a look at a possible betting scenario. Say there is an NFL game between the Broncos and Seahawks.

Betting exchanges list the Seahawks as having a slight advantage at 1.9. The odds show there is a 52.6% chance of winning the game. However, after performing an analysis, bettors see that the true odds of a Seattle win are shorter. Bettors may think the team has a 55% implied probability, which is around 1.8 when determining odds.

Using the Kelly Criterion, the bet amount is determined by the following formula: 90.9 x .55 – 0.450 divided by 0.9. This will equal 0.05, indicating that the bet amount should be 5% of the bankroll. If bettors have $100 to bet with, the wager should be $5. When there is a positive percentage after completing the formula, this shows that there are favorable odds.

Kelly Criterion Benefits

When betting on sports, having a proven and effective strategy is always beneficial. This betting strategy can be a great tool for those who place frequent bets are want to ensure their bankroll lasts. Everyone who places a bet will want to win. While there are no guarantees when using the Kelly Criterion, there are some super advantages.

Long-term Profits are Maximized – When using this strategy, the profits can be maximized. Increasing the return on investment is a goal for all bettors and this is one great way to accomplish that goal.
Minimize Risk – The strategy ensures that bettors will be taking on a certain amount of risk. This will minimize the chances of depleting the bankroll and will allow more bets to be placed.
Clear Strategy – Many betting strategies are complicated and do not provide results on a regular basis. With this option, there is an objective strategy that will determine the right size for any bet.
Adjustments Available – As the odds on events change and the bankroll amount differs, bettors can adjust the size of a bet while maintaining the optimal fraction of the current bankroll.

Drawbacks of the Strategy

When using the Kelly Criterion, bettors have a better chance of boosting the bankroll and enjoying profits over time. However, it is important to be aware of the drawbacks of using this strategy when betting online.

One of the main disadvantages is that it will not help with the calculation of the initial probability that will be needed to move forward. It is difficult to find value in the odds market and even harder to calculate probability accurately.
Another downfall is for those who like to place multiple bets on a single bet slip or those who combine bets into an acca wager. It can be very hard to calculate the probability of multiple bets. In these cases, the Kelly Criterion will not be the best strategy to use.

The makeup of any bankroll will also be changed drastically when using the Kely Criterion. It is possible for the bankroll to grow, but it can also be just as possible for it to diminish. For example, when the formula shows that probability of 50% and bettors stake 50% of the bankroll, they will be taking on a huge risk that could result in major losses.

Tips for Kelly Criterion Success

Online sports betting is a legal and safe way to earn some profits by placing bets on sports teams, games, and events. Many bettors will take time to develop strategies that can improve the chances of placing winning bets. The Kelly Criterion is a strategy that is best suited for experienced bettors. Since it will require an ability to calculate probability, it will prove difficult to use for new bettors.

This option is a good choice when there is a value bet deal. When a sportsbook makes a mistake calculating probabilities and wrong quotes are set, the Kelly Criterion can be a valuable tool. Here are a few tips that can be used when employing this strategy. Again, there is never a guarantee of winning when betting and there is always a risk.

Have a Clear Mind – One key to success is to always review games and analyze stats with a clear mind. Avoid betting when under stress or when physically tired. Being able to think clearly will allow bettors to properly estimate the situation and make the right choices.
Stay Away from Low Odds – When a bookmaker has quotes that are between 1.2 and 1.5, the Kelly Criterion should not be used. Experts state that is it best to only consider odds that are 1.75 or higher.
Parlay Bet Odds – When placing bets on parlays, look for odds that are higher than 2.0. When placing accumulator bets, this strategy works very well, but quotes will have to be increased immediately.
Rely on Calculators – While it is easy to determine the Kelly Criterion when betting, it is always best to refer to an online calculator. This will eliminate the chance of human error and will ensure that bettors are getting the right results.

Is the Kelly Criterion Worth Using?

When betting on any sport, choosing the amount of a wager can be just as important as the odds that are listed. With the Kelly Criterion, bettors will be able to determine just how much to bet in order to benefit from long-term profits. This mathematical strategy is used by many experienced sports bettors and is a great way to minimize risks.

When value betting, this strategy is more effective than flat betting. It will allow for bet sizes to be adjusted based on the edge. When there is a high edge, bet sizes can be increased and then decreased when the edge is low. Using this method will open the door to maximizing profits and minimizing betting losses.