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How to Win Basketball Bets

Basketball Bets

Table of contents

  1. 🏀Popular basketball bets
  2. 📊Stats to follow?
  3. 💡Things to consider
  4. 🌍Following the news cycle
  5. ↩️Try different approaches
  6. ✅Conclusion

Basketball is one of the most popular sports for sports betting with an enormous amount of matches being played each season. Placing a successful basketball wager requires more than sheer luck, bettors have a load of useful information to consider before placing their bets. Understanding the different bet types and basketball-specific betting rules is absolutely key to winning basketball bets. Common questions like, does overtime count towards point spreads? What is a double-double, triple-double? How to bet on points per quarter or points per half, etc. This goal of this guide is to help you understand the ins and outs of basketball betting to improve your basketball predictions!

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Popular basketball bets

The top basketball betting sites give bettors loads of choices for each match. While there is some variety between sportsbooks, here are the most popular basketball bets: 

Points 

Sportsbooks offer various options to bet on points during a basketball game. You can bet on totals per player, totals per team, totals per quarter/half and of course the ever-popular point spread. 

Team totals

The team totals bet, as its name would suggest, is a wager on the total amount of points a given team will score over the match, including overtime. You should be aware of the scoring strategy of the team you're betting on, whether they're going to look to set up 3's or relying on their tall players to post up in the paint and battle it out. Analysis of team play style can give some great hints as to how a team will score in a selected match. 

Game totals

Given the high-scoring nature of the sport of basketball, points totals are on an upward trajectory in recent years. In the NBA, it's not uncommon to see games that cross the 230, 240 and even 250 point total thresholds. 

Quarter totals

The NBA divides a match into four 12 minute quarters. Sportsbooks allow you to place a bet for the number of points a team or a combination of the two teams will score on any given quarter. 

Half totals

Similar to quarter totals, bettors have the option of betting on point totals for each half of the game. 

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Player Props

Player props are among the most popular basketball bets to place. While points bets are concerned with how a team will perform collectively, player prop bets are focused on individual stat lines. Here are the most popular basketball prop bets:

Points scored

In this category, you're betting on how many points a single player will put up over a match. For example, if Luka Doncic has scored at least 20 points in three consecutive games and is facing one of the league's worst defenses, we can safely assume that he'll continue his run of good form and put up at least 20 more. Points-scored bets are usually offered on an over/under style fixed amount (determined by the books).

Number of 3's 

Contrary to points scored, the number of three-pointers bet varies greatly depending on the player in question. You won't see the same betting options or odds if Steph Curry is the target versus say, Draymond Green. Players obviously have different strong points and the odds will reflect their various strengths.

Assists or Rebounds

Another popular bball betting option is the assist and rebounds category. Keep in mind that if a player is fouled and subsequently makes both free throws, there won't be an assist awarded to the player who made the initial pass. 

Double-double

Betting on if a player will have double digits in at least two of the five measurable categories of: points, assists, rebounds, steals, and blocks, is called the double-double bet. You'll find the most renowned stars consistently achieving this feat multiple times per season, LeBron James, Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid, and Jason Tatum are all reliable picks. Along the same lines, the triple-double is when a player achieves double digits in at least 3 of the 5 categories. 

Spread Bets

Our last category is one of the most common bets you can place on a basketball match, the spread bet. The books will give an advantage to the team favored to win the match by setting a 'spread' or a margin which the winning team must cover for the bet to succeed. 

For example, a strong team playing at home against a struggling team could see a hefty point spread of -9.5, meaning that the stronger team will have to win by at least 10 points to "cover the spread", or for the bet to payout. This is a creative way to keep matches that are otherwise blowouts interesting for bettors.

 Other Basketball Bet Terms

Here are a few other terms you may come across when perusing the basketball offerings on  your favorite sportsbook:

  • Moneyline – Backing either team to win the game, often including overtime. 
  • Alternate spread – Spreads at different odds, allowing bettors to choose the line themselves. 
  • Same-game parlay – Combine multiple selections from the same game to create your own same-game parlay.
  • Futures – Ranging from MVP to the winner of the NCAA Tournament, futures bets cover the outcome of a future event (or multiple events). 

What stats are used in basketball betting?

Sports bettors have access to an enormous amount of statistics. Betting on basketball is no exception to that rule. Sites like Team Rankings, Basketball Reference, Shot Quality and the NBA’s own statistics pages should all be staples of your pre-bet analysis. 

Looking into betting trends is always helpful. Several outlets show tables of how often teams have covered the spread and how they have fared on the game total. Team Rankings allow bettors to then filter these results based on home/road splits, playing as a favorite/underdog and much more. 

When it comes to player props, game logs at Basketball Reference, ESPN and others allow you to scan through to see if a line is too high or too low. Some platforms have specific tools to look into how often players have hit the over or under on specific props. 

Regular sports bettors should be accustomed to interpreting advanced statistics. These are important for team, game and player bets. Looking at a team’s net rating over the last 10 games can give an idea of the level of their performance, while Shot Quality and Cleaning The Glass offer metrics that can be more predictive than simple win/loss records. 

The accessibility of basketball statistics is a massive benefit for sports gamblers. Successful bettors will take full advantage of the numbers at their disposal.

Things to consider before placing your basketball bet

There are lots of different factors to bear in mind before committing to your basketball bets.

  • First of all, bettors should make sure they have a full understanding of the market they’re betting on and the conditions of the wager. You should always set a budget before even considering your first wager! 
  • We would always advise comparing odds across multiple sportsbooks to ensure you are getting the best possible value for your wager, too. The big names like FanDuel, Caesars, DraftKings and BetMGM will often have very competitive odds, but it’s good to check. 
  • Injuries and team form are two of the first things to look into when placing a basketball bet. Head-to-head records are worth considering when making your betting decisions, though it’s important to provide context for past matchups, including whether there have been major changes to either team or if star players sat out.
  • In the NBA, rest is key. If a team has a few games in a short period, including a nail-biting overtime slugfest, that’s bound to have some impact on how you evaluate them. It’s worth researching how teams have fared with rest disadvantages. 
  • Home/road splits and records against teams above and below .500 can also point you in the right direction. While the sample sizes are smaller earlier in the season, it can be useful at times to look into the last season to inform your wagers. 

Following the news cycle 

Whether you prefer written media, podcasts or social media, it is vital you stay up to date with the latest goings on in basketball. Being as informed as possible gives you the best chance of succeeding when wagering on basketball.

This means knowing the latest injury news, coaching changes and everything else that will be covered by beat writers and analysts. Following professional bettors and tipsters can also give you some ideas – they will often identify patterns in odds that can prove profitable, such as if a certain team has been excelling in the first quarter or if a player has seen their minutes cut. 

Try different approaches

There is no surefire way to win basketball bets. A solid basketball betting strategy will involve a decent amount of trial and error. Sometimes, tactics that worked last season won't work well this season. A successful bettor must always adapt to the current trends!

To really develop an understanding of what it takes to consistently pick winners, you need to be unafraid to try different approaches. Give a range of markets a try. Consider same-game parlays, weigh up futures and see which statistics have the best chance of predicting the outcome of games. 

Conclusion

To sum it all up, basketball bettors tend to favor markets involving the points scored in the match so knowing how they're measured (half/full time, quarters). Always make sure to analyze previous results to help create a more clear picture of how the team will perform in the upcoming match. Similarly, it's always a good idea to study individual player stats which can tell you a lot about how they're expected to perform in the next match, and help you spot interesting odds. Lastly, it's crucial to check each team's injury reports before casting your final bet, you can often see a spread move 4-5 points if a star player is left off of a roster. 

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