NFL Handicapping Guide

How to Handicap NFL Odds

The NFL is the most wagered on sport in the United States. According to data collected by CRG Global for Variety Intelligence Platform back in October 2022, 81% of bettors that were 18 or older placed NFL wager. The next-closest sport, the NBA, came in at 54%. Most “casual” sports bettors will place multiple wagers over the course of the NFL season. This can both hinder and help when trying to handicap the sports in which many believe is one of the toughest sports to handicap. In this article, we will give you some helpful tips, as well as, pitfalls to avoid when deciding on placing a wager on the NFL this season.

💰Bankroll Management
↩️Reverse Line Movement
🔍Looking ahead
🌍Weather
📊Trends
☎️Injuries

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Bankroll Management

We will begin with the most important part when investing any of your money in the sports betting market, bankroll management. You should never bet more than you can afford and never get into one of the worst habits in the sports betting industry, chasing your losses. We recommend you decide on a “unit” size that will allow you to bet comfortably and never feel like you have too much on the line. For reference, we suggest using a 2.5%-unit size per bankroll. This means that a unit for a $1,000 bankroll would be $25 per wager. One of the pitfalls while betting in general, but specifically NFL betting, is chasing your losses. Many amateur gamblers will take a few losses during Sunday and maybe Sunday night and use Monday Night’s game to win back all their losses. This strategy causes way more damage in the long run.

Five Key Factors

Ok, now that you have an idea of what your bankroll and unit size will be and know to avoid chasing your losses, let's get into the different pieces that we believe factor into being on the right side of an NFL wager often. Firstly, be aware that even the best handicappers in the world, will only have a win rate of 53-56% of the time. That said, there are a few things to keep an eye on and use to factor into your betting decision. Here is the top 5 that we believe provide the most benefit.

Reverse Line Movement

With the NFL being the most wagered on sport, the oddsmakers will have enormous numbers of both bets and betting amounts. When looking at a potential matchup to bet on, we like to see which games have many bets placed on them with a larger number of monies on the opposite side and see how the line moves.

For example, if the New York Giants are facing the Philadelphia Eagles and the Giants are receiving 70% or more of the bets but the Eagles are receiving 70% or more of the money, we will want to see what the line movement has been. If the Giants were say -5.5 point favorites when the line opened but now are only -4, we will lean towards betting the Eagles in that matchup.

The information is telling us that the oddsmakers are not concerned about the 70% of the bets on the Giants rather they are factoring in the 70% of the money being bet on the Eagles.

Looking ahead

Another main factor that we consider in the NFL is who the teams will be facing the following week. Obviously, this plays a bigger factor the further into the season we get. We like to see if a team that is in a matchup where they should win rather comfortably (7–10-point favorites) but are a slightly lesser favorite and are playing a strong opponent the following week, we are inclined to bet against (fade) that team.

NFL teams get caught looking ahead to a tougher matchup and will sometimes play down the level of a lesser opponent...

Many times, in the NFL, teams get caught looking ahead to a tougher matchup and will sometimes play down the level of a lesser opponent because of this factor. The public likes backing favorites in general so when we can find a favorite in this spot, we will fade the public and take the underdog.

Weather

This seems rudimentary but many gamblers will not even think to look at what the weather in a matchup will be before making a wager. Rain, snow, and wind are the biggest factors to be aware of when handicapping an NFL game.

Teams with a strong running game and tough defense will tend to have an advantage in games with these potential weather issues.

If you are looking at a matchup where there is potential for high winds and precipitation, you are going to want to avoid teams that rely heavily on their passing attack. Teams with a strong running game and tough defense will tend to have an advantage in games with these potential weather issues. You will also want to use that information if you are placing a wager on the total. If the weather conditions are going to hinder one or both offenses, you may want to consider playing the under on a total as that could be more favorable.

Trends

You can find any type of trend possible when researching a matchup for the NFL. However, the trends that we like to key on when handicapping these games are the ones that show what the teams have done as a favorite or underdog and at home and on the road. Just because a team might be one of the best in the league, they could still have trouble covering the number.

For instance, the Buffalo Bills were 12-7 last season and were the #2 seed in the AFC. However, against the spread, the Bills were just 8-11 when all was said and done.

If we see a team that is struggling to cover the spread as a favorite and the oddsmakers keep putting them out as such, we like to fade these teams in those situations.

Injuries

This is where we tend to buck the logical approach and bet against the grain. Throughout the season, there are numerous injuries to many key players throughout the league. Many times, we will see a notable player be ruled out for a game and then the public will jump all over the other side in hopes of beating the line change. Often, this strategy is an overreaction and causes the bettor to be on the wrong side.

Often, this strategy is an overreaction and causes the bettor to be on the wrong side.

The #1 injury we will look for is that of a running back. Every season and typically multiple times in a season, we see a big-name running back go down and be replaced by a much lesser-known name. The public will overreact and take the opposing team when in fact, the play of the run game is more affected by the play of the offensive line than the running back himself. The league is filled with talented running backs and when one goes down, teams usually can plug in their replacement without a big loss in their run game.

To Sum it All Up

We hope you can take all this information and use it to your advantage to make your 2024-2025 NFL season a successful one. Remember to stay true to your bankroll, avoid chasing losses, and look out for our key handicapping factors and as always, enjoy the season!