How to Read Baseball Stats for Sports Betting

How to read baseball stats

Baseball is a game of numbers, and getting to know the statistical language will enhance one's appreciation of it. Understanding traditional and advanced sabermetric statistics would, therefore, be of great help for analysts, players, and sports bettors in looking at performance and strategy.

⚾RHE
📊Traditional vs Saber
💡Batting Stats
🔍Pitching Stats
✨Defensive Stats

RHE: The Fundamental of Baseball Stats

The first step in reading baseball stats often begins with the basics: Runs (R), Hits (H), and Errors (E), commonly seen on the scoreboard. These numbers summarize a game’s progression:

Runs (R): The total number of times players safely cross home plate.
Hits (H): The number of successful hits by a team, excluding walks or hit-by-pitches.
Errors (E): Fielding mistakes that allow a batter or baserunner to advance.

For example, in Game 3 of the 2024 World Series, the LA Dodgers and New York Yankees combined for 10 hits and 1 error.

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Traditional Baseball Stats vs. Sabermetrics

Traditionally, baseball statistics focused on basic metrics such as batting average, home runs, and earned run average (ERA). While useful, they often lacked depth in evaluating a player's overall contributions.

Sabermetrics, framed by Bill James and the book Moneyball, provide advanced analytics to further specify how well a player is performing.

Traditional: Batting average evaluates a player’s hitting success but ignores walks or power.
Sabermetrics: Stats like weighted on-base average (wOBA) and Wins Above Replacement (WAR) incorporate factors like plate discipline, base-running, and defensive value.

The shift toward sabermetrics is evident in modern MLB front offices, where teams like the Oakland Athletics and Tampa Bay Rays have embraced data-driven approaches to maximize efficiency.

Key Batting Stats

The batting average of a player shows the player's performance based on traditional measures and advanced metrics. Batting average (BA) measures the percentage of at-bats that a hitter makes contact with the ball, whereas on-base percentage (OBP) counts the number of bases reached by a batter due to walks and hit-by-pitches.

Runs batted in (RBI) highlight a player's ability to drive in runs, a critical aspect of scoring. Advanced metrics like wOBA and weighted runs created plus (wRC+) offer a more comprehensive view by evaluating power, discipline, and park adjustments.

Additionally, isolated power (ISO) focuses on extra-base hits, showcasing a batter's raw power. Together, these stats provide a detailed picture of offensive contributions which can be immensely useful for your MLB predictions.

Batting Average

The batting average is one of the oldest and simplest stats in baseball.

For example, Tony Gwynn’s career batting average of .338 still ranks among the best in history, highlighting his consistent ability to get hits.

However, BA does not account for walks or power, making it an incomplete measure.

On-Base Percentage

OBP expands on the batting average by including walks and hit-by-pitches.

Joey Votto, known for his plate discipline, boasted career OBPs above .400 before retiring, showcasing his ability to get on base.

Runs Batted In

RBIs measure the number of runs a batter drives in through his at-bats.

Miguel Cabrera’s 139 RBIs during his 2012 Triple Crown season illustrated his ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities.

Weighted On-Base Average

wOBA assigns different weights to outcomes like singles, doubles, and walks, providing a comprehensive view of offensive contributions.

In 2019, Mike Trout led MLB with a wOBA of .436, reflecting his dominance in both power and plate discipline.

Weighted Runs Created Plus

wRC+ adjusts offensive performance for ballpark and league factors, with 100 as league average.

Players like Aaron Judge often excel in wRC+, with his 2022 value of 207 indicating he was 107% better than the league-average hitter.

Isolated Power

ISO measures a hitter's raw power by focusing solely on extra-base hits.

Barry Bonds’ 2001 ISO of .536, fueled by 73 home runs, remains an unparalleled display of power-hitting.

How to Read Pitching Stats

Pitching statistics represent how effective a pitcher and his role are in controlling the game. They provide an insight into performance, strategy, and value, which are some of the fundamental elements of baseball analytics and, consequently, baseball betting.

Earned Run Average

ERA calculates the average number of earned runs a pitcher allows per nine innings and is one of the key pitching metrics.

Clayton Kershaw’s career ERA of 2.48 is a testament to his dominance, ranking among the best in the live-ball era.

Strikeouts (K)

Strikeouts represent the number of batters a pitcher retires without a ball being put into play. Nolan Ryan holds the career strikeout record with 5,714, showcasing his overpowering stuff.

Innings Pitched

IP measures the total innings a pitcher throws, with partial innings counted as fractions. In 1986, Roger Clemens pitched 254 innings while maintaining a 2.48 ERA, illustrating both durability and effectiveness.

Strikeout Percentage

K% calculates strikeouts as a percentage of total batters faced.

Jacob deGrom’s 45.1% K% in 2021 epitomized his dominance, as nearly half of his opponents struck out.

Fielding Independent Pitching

FIP evaluates a pitcher’s performance based on strikeouts, walks, and home runs, independent of fielding.

Zack Greinke’s 2009 FIP of 2.33 demonstrated his exceptional control and dominance, even when fielders made errors.

Defensive Stats

Defensive statistics are a measure of how well a player can prevent runs and make plays in the field. Traditional measures include errors and fielding percentage, but modern analysis has expanded into advanced metrics to evaluate range, positioning, and overall defensive contributions.

Errors

Errors occur when a defensive misplay allows a batter or runner to advance improperly. Derek Jeter’s defense sparked debates due to his modest error totals but questionable range.

Fielding Percentage

FPCT measures a player’s ability to make plays without errors.

A fielding percentage above .990 is considered excellent, as evidenced by Yadier Molina’s career FPCT of .995.

Outs and Assists

Outs: Recorded when a fielder completes a play resulting in an out.
Assists: Counted when a fielder contributes to an out, often by throwing to a teammate.

Third basemen like Nolan Arenado are known for high assist totals due to frequent ground balls to their position.

Wins Above Replacement

WAR summarizes a player’s total contributions, comparing them to a replacement-level player.

Mookie Betts’ 10.6 WAR in 2018 highlighted his all-around brilliance, from hitting to fielding.

The final word

More than just numbers, baseball statistics tell the story of a player's contributions and a team's success. Not only may it be interesting to analyze traditional stats like RBIs in comparison with advanced metrics such as FIP and WAR, but the understanding gained can enrich your baseball acumen and lead to smarter choices when betting.