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by Matt Lowrimore | in NCAA Basketball Picks
This first-round matchup is set for Friday and will see the 10th-seeded Vanderbilt Commodores take on the 7th-seeded Saint Mary's Gaels in the East Region. Let's take a closer look at the match statistics and predictions for this first-round game between the Commodores and Gaels.
Vanderbilt enters this game with a record of 20-12, having earned an at-large bid into the NCAA tournament. The Commodores had an early exit from the SEC tournament, losing to Texas in the first-round. Vanderbilt will be making their 16th NCAA tournament appearance in program history and their first since the 2016-2017 season.
As for Saint Mary's they enter this game with a record of 28-5, also earning an at-large bid into the NCAA tournament. The Gaels beat Pepperdine in the West Coast Conference semifinals before losing to Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference final despite having beaten them twice during the regular season. Saint Mary's will be making their 14th NCAA tournament appearance and fourth consecutive appearance.
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Vanderbilt Commodores vs St. Mary's Form
Vanderbilt Commodores and St. Mary's Latest Matches
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
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3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
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1/6 (17%)
5/6 (83%)
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5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
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5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
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5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
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Vanderbilt Commodores - St. Mary's Key Points
- Vandy is 4-8 SU in their last 12 games
- Vandy is 2-6 SU in their last 8 games as an underdog
- Saint Mary's is 18-2 SU in their last 20 games
- Saint Mary's is 7-0 in their last 7 games as a favorite
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Our Vanderbilt Commodores vs St. Mary's Prediction
Not to say that Vanderbilt did not deserve a bid in the tournament but they have faltered down the stretch, having lost 6 of their last 9 games and their last 3 games in a row. Meanwhile, Saint Mary's had one of their best seasons in rest memory, which even included two regular-season wins against Gonzaga. While the Gaels were unable to beat them a third time in the WCC final.
Despite that, the Gaels still have one of the best scoring defenses in the country, averaging only 60.7 points per game. They also allow the fewest three-point attempts and the second fewest makes. Further, their rebounding is also exceptional compared to Vandy, who consistently struggles to rebound.
Even though the Commodores average about 79 points per game, the Gaels' defense has been too strong, therefore our Vanderbilt Commodores vs Saint Mary's Gaels prediction is Saint Mary's ML.Jackpot Pools
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