Olympics - Swimming Picks & Predictions
2024 Olympics Swimming Picks and Predictions
Swimming is one of the major sports of the Olympics! This summer in Paris, the world's best swimmers will be competing for medals.
Who can win gold? Who are the favorites?
We tell you all about it on this page dedicated to the swimming events at the 2024 Olympic Games. Get ready to make your predictions!
Swimming Olympics: the Finals schedule for your predictions
There are 37 events in Olympic Swimming this summer. Of those events, 35 are taking place in the pool at Paris La Défense Arena. There are also 10km open-water marathons for men and women. That means a total of 18 events each for men and women.
There is only one mixed event at the 2024 Paris Olympics. The 4x100m Mixed Medley Relay final is scheduled as the last race on August 3 2024 after the Women’s 800m Freestyle final. The heat for the Mixed Medley Relay will take place on Friday, August 2.
| Event | Men's Final | Women's Final |
|---|---|---|
| 400m Freestyle | July 27 | July 27 |
| 4x100m Freestyle Relay | July 27 | July 27 |
| 400m Individual Medley | July 28 | July 29 |
| 100m Breaststroke | July 28 | July 29 |
| 200m Freestyle | July 29 | July 29 |
| 100m Backstroke | July 29 | July 30 |
| 800m Freestyle | July 30 | August 3 |
| 4x200m Freestyle Relay | July 30 | August 1 |
| 200m Butterfly | July 31 | August 1 |
| 200m Breaststroke | July 31 | August 1 |
| 100m Freestyle | July 31 | July 31 |
| 200m Backstroke | August 1 | August 2 |
| 50m Freestyle | August 2 | August 4 |
| 200m Individual Medley | August 2 | August 3 |
| 100m Butterfly | August 3 | July 28 |
| 1500m Freestyle | August 3 | July 28 |
| 4x100m Medley Relay | August 4 | August 4 |
Our prediction for the men's 200m Butterfly at the 2024 Olympics
Holder of the world record in the long course 200m Butterfly, Kristof Milak is unquestionably the best Butterfly swimmer in the world. He returned to racing this spring after an intense period of training, and he’s gunning for gold in Paris. The Hungarian has seven of the 10 fastest 200m Butterfly times, putting him in elite company alongside the incomparable Michael Phelps.
After winning the 200m Butterfly in San Antonio in April, we would also keep an eye on Leon Marchand. Only 18 at the time of the last Olympics, Marchand was the reigning world champion in the 200m Butterfly until Tomoru Honda took his title in Doha earlier this year.
Summer McIntosh, Regan Smith, and Elizabeth Dekkers are going to be among the betting favorites in the women’s 200m Butterfly.
- Our prediction : Léon Marchand gold medal
Men's 200m butterfly 2024 Olympics: gold medal odds
- Léon Marchand (FRA) -125
- Kristóf Milák (HUN) +220
- Tomoru Honda (JPN) +470
- Ilya Kharun (CAN) +2900
- Krzysztof Chmielewski (POL) +2900
Odds provided by DraftKings
Our prediction for the men's 100m Butterfly at the 2024 Olympics
America Caeleb Dressel has produced five of the six fastest men’s 100m Butterfly times. Dressel has declined a bit in recent years, having posted most of his personal bests in 2019 and 2020, but he still won the 100m in San Antonio, which followed his success at Westmont earlier this year.
Winner in Japan in 2021, Dressel has the Olympic pedigree, but he’s certainly beatable. Since the start of last year, there have been 22 efforts quicker than Dressel’s winning time in San Antonio.
In the women’s 100m Butterfly, Torri Huske posted a 55.68 in San Antonio, which is the fastest time by any woman since the beginning of 2023. Still only 21, Huske has numerous records to her name and will be a candidate for several medals in Paris this summer.
- Our prediction : Caeleb Dressel gold medal
Men's 100m butterfly 2024 Olympics: gold medal odds
- Caeleb Dressel (USA) +210
- Josh Liendo (CAN) +300
- Maxime Grousset (FRA) +500
- Noè Ponti (CHE) +500
- Kristóf Milák (HUN) +1000
Odds provided by DraftKings
50m Freestyle prediction
Cameron McEvoy, who has competed at the last three Olympics, has set six of the seven fastest men’s 50m Freestyle times over the last 18 months. The Australian won gold in this event in the 2023 World Championships, but had to settle for silver in Doha.
He was pipped to the title by 21-year-old Ukrainian Vladyslav Bukhov. Early in his career, Bukhov is clearly at his best in the 50m Freestyle. The question, though, is whether he can repeat his World Championship-winning performance under the intense pressure of an Olympics.
Dominant over women’s short-distance Freestyle swimming, Sarah Sjöström has won gold in the 50m Freestyle at the last three World Championships. The Swede is the heavy favourite heading into Paris, and owns the six fastest times since the start of 2023.
- Our prediction : Cameron McEvoy gold medal
Men's 50m freestyle Olympic Games 2024: gold medal odds
- Cameron McEvoy (AUS) +105
- Caleb Dressel (USA) +220
- Ben Proud (GBR) +650
- Vladyslav Bukhov (UKR) +1400
- Florent Manaudou (FRA) +1800
Odds provided by DraftKings
100m Freestyle prediction
After picking up four golds in Doha, 19-year-old Pan Zhanle is the clear favorite for the 100m Freestyle at this summer’s Olympics. Zhanle has been the star of short-distance Freestyle swimming in 2024 after excelling at the Asian Games last September.
American Jack Alexy put in excellent performances in Knoville and Westmont after a silver medal in Fukuoka last year. He is certainly in the mix for a medal, but will need to produce something spectacular to get the better of Zhanle.
Following a gold in Doha and a bronze in Fukuoka, Marrit Steenbergen will be among the betting favorites in the women’s 100m Freestyle. Sjöström, who holds the world record, should be written off, though, and gold medallist in Fukuoka, Mollie
O'Callaghan, set a blistering time in April. Bookies price O’Callaghan as the early favorite.
- Our prediction : Pan Zhanle gold medal
Men's 100m freestyle Olympic Games 2024: gold medal odds
- Zhanle Pan (CHN) -110
- David Popovici (ROM) +170
- Jack Alexy (USA) +500
- Kyle Chalmers (AUS) +650
- Chris Guiliano (USA) +1600
Odds provided by DraftKings
200m Freestyle prediction
Matthew Richards posted the fastest 200m Freestyle time of 2024, but Hwang Sun-woo took home gold in Doha. This is one of the most open fields, with seven racers appearing in the top-10 times over the last 18 months.
Lithuanian Danas Rapšys is coming off his first World Championship long-course medal. Richards and Dunca Scott both excelled at the British National Championships, while David Popovici put in a scorching time at the Romanian equivalent. There is going to be plenty of value once odds are released for this market, such is the seeming parity.
Mollie O'Callaghan, Ariarne Titmus, and Summer McIntosh are three of the frontrunners in the women’s field. O’Callaghan is the world record holder, just as she is over 100m, but none of the aforementioned trio medalled in Doha with Siobhán Haughey claiming gold ahead of Erika Fairweather and Brianna Throssell.
- Our prediction : Hwang Sun-woo gold medal
Men's 200m freestyle Olympic Games 2024: gold medal odds
- David Popovici (ROU) -240
- Lukas Martens (GER) +550
- Matt Richards (GBR) +850
- Duncan Scott (GBR) +1600
- Pan Zhanle (CHN) +1800
Odds provided by DraftKings
400m Freestyle prediction
Samuel Short and Ahmed Hafnaoui set excellent times at the 2023 World Championships, but it’s Australian Elijah Winnington who has the best 400m Freestyle time in 2024. Winnington was runner-up to Kim Woo-min in Doha, and will be desperate to improve on his performance in Tokyo, where he failed to medal in his individual events.
German Lukas Martens and Brazilian Guilherme Costa are both going to be competitive. The Aussie duo of Short and Winnington are coming into this Olympics in exceptional form, though, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if they recorded a one-two in Paris.
Titmus, McIntosh, Fairweather, and Katie Ledecky are all going to be among the favorites. McIntosh and Titmus have put in the best times of 2024 so far.
- Our prediction : Elijah Winnington gold medal
Men's 400m freestyle Olympic Games 2024: gold medal odds
- Lukas Märtens (GER) +160
- Samuel Short (AUS) +200
- Elijah Winnington (AUS) +370
- Kim Woo-min (KOR) +1100
- Oliver Klemet (GER) +2300
Odds provided by DraftKings
1500m Freestyle prediction
Moving to the grueling 1500m Freestyle, Hafnaoui is likely the only one of the 400m contenders in the mix. A different skill set is required for this event, which is evident when looking at the fastest times since the start of last year. Bobby Finke, world champion Daniel Wiffen, and Florian Wellbrock have all put in some great times over the last 12 months.
Short and Martens have both delivered some good performances, too. While Wiffen looks like the favorite after claiming a pair of individual golds in Doha, several swimmers will fancy their chances in this event.
On the women’s side, we can’t look past Ledecky. Her record over the last couple of years is absolutely exceptional, even if Simone Quadarella took the gold in the 800m and 1500m at the most recent World Championships.
- Our prediction : Ahmed Hafnaoui gold medal
Men's 1500m freestyle Olympic Games 2024: gold medal odds
- Robert Finke (USA) +165
- Daniel Wiffen (IRL) +230
- Florian Wellbrock (DEU) +650
- Gregorio Paltrinieri (ITA) +1000
- Kuzey Tuncelli (TUR) +1000
Odds provided by DraftKings
Our other predictions for Olympic Swimming 2024
As for the other disciplines, there is going to be fierce competition throughout the Paris Olympics. Some events will have clear favorites, but there is always going to be betting value on the board. Surprises are possible with the pressure of an Olympic Games, and some swimmers could suffer from fatigue if they’re competing on multiple fronts.
Breaststroke sees Adam Peaty challenged by Qin Haiyang. The two are going to be the clear favorites, with Qin Haiyang posting a string of exceptional times over the last 18 months. Peaty posted a scorching 57.94 in the 2024 British National Championships.
Léon Marchand will be one of the men to watch at these Olympics.
Rūta Meilutytė, coming off a gold in Doha after a brace of golds in Fukuoka, looks like the frontrunner in the 100m and 200m women’s Breaststroke. American duo Hunter Armstrong and Ryan Murphy are two of the favorites in men’s Backstroke, with Kaylee McKeown and Regan Smith the top two in women’s Backstroke.
Look out for Katie Grimes in the women’s 400m Individual Medley, and Carson Foster in the men’s 400m Individual Medley.
In the 400 m individual medley, French prodigy Léon Marchand is obviously the ultimate favorite. The man who will be swimming in his home country broke Michael Phelps' world record at the 2023 World Championships in Fukuoka, and will be one of the men to watch at these Olympics.
Olympic Games 2024: How to make good predictions for swimming?
Making good predictions for swimming at the 2024 Olympics requires careful research and analysis of the betting markets. Seasoned bettors will know what to prioritize when trying to find value bets on swimming.
Here are our 5 top tips for making accurate swimming predictions this 2024 Paris Olympics:
- Evaluate Olympic Track Record
- Dive Into the Form Guide
- Look for Betting Trends
- Benefit from Sportsbook Offers
- Learn About Strengths and Weaknesses
You must make sure you know the conditions for betting on each market, and understand the rules for each wager. It’s also a good idea to learn about possible promos available when betting on swimming. Sportsbooks are going to have plenty of bonuses and special markets on offer throughout the Olympics.
Evaluate Olympic track record
The Olympics are the pinnacle for any swimmer. Pressure, as a result, is higher than ever. The world’s best are all competing, and millions of viewers are tuning in who would not normally follow the World Championships or smaller events.
This pressure can get to some competitors. Some swimmers find their best form when the Olympics are on, while others fall short. This same logic can be applied to other major events – having excellent times in qualifying doesn’t guarantee success in Paris.
Dive into the form guide
Form is important in any sport. Swimming is no exception. Before placing a wager, you should take a deep look into each swimmer’s form to get a thorough idea of who is performing at their best.
Find the swimmers on the up, and those with recent wins under their belts. A string of personal bests can be a great sign heading into the Olympics, while others who are years removed from their best times might be in a career lull.
We would recommend the World Aquatics site for this research – you can find immense amounts of data on each competing swimmer.
Look for betting trends
Has a particular event regularly delivered underdog winners? Does fatigue play a part for races later in the schedule? Swimming has been part of the Olympics for well over a century, giving bettors a lot of data to investigate when making their picks.
Look into what has contributed to surprise wins in the past. Some swimmers might have been unable to back up performances on consecutive days, while others might have a tendency to find greater rhythm when asked to race several days in a row.
These are all factors worth considering when weighing up the Olympic swimming betting markets this summer.
Benefit from sportsbook offers
Always make sure to look through the available sportsbook offers. This, along with comparing odds, should be a staple of your pre-bet process.
From enhanced odds to risk-free bets, sportsbooks constantly have various promotions available. These can help to enhance your bank balance or give you much improved potential winnings.
We recommend keeping up to date with all the latest sportsbook offers.
Learn about strengths and weaknesses
The top swimmers will compete across various distances and disciplines at the Olympics. While they are obviously exceptionally talented to be able to do so, they are going to have strengths and weaknesses.
Don’t be lured in to backing a big name just because they excel in a certain event. They might be the best in the world at 100m Breaststroke, but it’s important you analyse their performance in other events before blindly backing them to succeed.
Similarly, there could be a lesser-known competitor who happens to be excellent at the 1500m Freestyle or Individual Medley. This could be where you can find an edge.
What not to do for your Olympic swimming predictions
You should be flexible as a sports bettor. Consistently tweak your betting strategy to maintain an advantage over the bookies.
Here are some mistakes to avoid when betting on Olympic swimming:
- Don’t automatically back the favorite
- Don’t commit to a wager without doing your research
- Keep calm and level-headed even if you have a couple of losers in the early rounds
- Always compare odds across multiple sportsbooks to get the best prices
- Don’t back an outsider just for big potential winnings unless you can justify the pick
Steer clear of these mistakes to make sure you really get the most out of betting on swimming this summer. Remember to remain open-minded throughout this summer’s Olympics, and be willing to change your betting strategy.
Key stats and facts for Olympic swimming predictions
You are now equipped with our predictions for the 2024 Paris Olympic swimming events, the strategies to adopt, and the mistakes to avoid when betting on the 2024 Olympics.
Here are the key statistics from the swimming events at the 2020 Olympics. These data provide an overall view of the performances in swimming at the Tokyo Olympics:
- A total of 35 gold medals were awarded across various swimming events.
- Several world records were broken, showcasing the high level of competition.
- The average time required to qualify for finals was significantly faster compared to previous Olympics.
- Team relay events saw exceptional performances, with multiple teams setting new records.
- Countries like the USA, Australia, and Great Britain dominated the medal tally, securing numerous podium finishes.
- The overall number of personal bests and national records achieved was higher than in previous years.
In short: How to make good swimming predictions during the Paris Olympics?
Trust the information included on this page and across our website. Conduct your research, and see what betting experts have to say before committing to any wagers. Keep a close eye on all swimming news in the build-up to the Olympics, and take in as much information once the event has begun.
There can be some trial-and-error involved as you formulate your swimming betting strategy. Luckily, our team are here to help you from July 27th to August 4th.
