Europe - Euro

Spain
20 Jun 2024 15:00
Italy

Prediction:

 

Both Teams to Score: Yes

-120
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Spain vs Italy Prediction & Picks - Euro

 by Simon Day | in Euro Picks

One of the most anticipated games of the tournament takes place on Thursday evening, as Spain and Italy clash at the Arena AufSchalke in Gelsenkirchen. Both sides won their opening games, so know that another victory will secure their place in the knockout stages. Spain were especially impressive in their 3-0 demolition of Croatia, with PSG midfielder Fabián Ruiz the star of the show and veteran striker Alvaro Morata proving that he can still perform at the highest level. Italy had to come from behind to beat Albania in their first game, with Alessandro Bastoni and Nicolo Barella scoring their goals.
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Spain vs Italy Form

Table

Teams Pts P W D L GD
1
Spain
Spain
9 3 3 0 0 5
2
Italy
Italy
4 3 1 1 1 0

Spain and Italy Latest Matches

Spain
Spain Latest matches
W L D W W W
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

4.17 Total goals
50% BTTS
3.17 Goals scored
1 Goals conceded
83% Over 2.5
17% Under 2.5

Jun 15, 2024 - Euro

Spain
3 :  0
Croatia

Jun 8, 2024 - International Friendlies

Spain
5 :  1
Northern Ireland

Jun 5, 2024 - International Friendlies

Spain
5 :  0
Andorra

Mar 26, 2024 - International Friendlies

Spain
3 :  3
Brazil

Mar 22, 2024 - International Friendlies

Spain
0 :  1
Colombia

Nov 19, 2023 - Euro

Spain
3 :  1
Georgia
W L D W W W
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

4.17 Total goals
50% BTTS
3.17 Goals scored
1 Goals conceded
83% Over 2.5
17% Under 2.5

Jun 15, 2024 - Euro

Spain
3 :  0
Croatia

Jun 8, 2024 - International Friendlies

Spain
5 :  1
Northern Ireland

Jun 5, 2024 - International Friendlies

Spain
5 :  0
Andorra

Mar 26, 2024 - International Friendlies

Spain
3 :  3
Brazil

Mar 22, 2024 - International Friendlies

Spain
0 :  1
Colombia

Nov 19, 2023 - Euro

Spain
3 :  1
Georgia
D L D W W W
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.5 Total goals
33% BTTS
1.83 Goals scored
0.67 Goals conceded
33% Over 2.5
67% Under 2.5

Nov 16, 2023 - Euro

Cyprus
1 :  3
Spain

Oct 15, 2023 - Euro

Norway
0 :  1
Spain

Sep 8, 2023 - Euro

Georgia
1 :  7
Spain

Jun 18, 2023 - UEFA Nations League

Croatia
0 :  0
Spain

Mar 28, 2023 - Euro

Scotland
2 :  0
Spain

Dec 6, 2022 - World Cup

Morocco
0 :  0
Spain
Italy
Italy Latest matches
D W W D W W
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Defeats

0/6 (0%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

1.5 Total goals
33% BTTS
1.17 Goals scored
0.33 Goals conceded
33% Over 2.5
67% Under 2.5

Jun 15, 2024 - Euro

Italy
2 :  1
Albania

Jun 9, 2024 - International Friendlies

Italy
1 :  0
Bosnia Herzegovina

Jun 4, 2024 - International Friendlies

Italy
0 :  0
Turkey

Mar 24, 2024 - International Friendlies

Italy
2 :  0
Ecuador

Mar 21, 2024 - International Friendlies

Venezuela
1 :  2
Italy

Nov 20, 2023 - Euro

Ukraine
0 :  0
Italy
W W W D W W
Victories

5/6 (83%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Defeats

0/6 (0%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.83 Total goals
33% BTTS
2.33 Goals scored
0.5 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

Jun 15, 2024 - Euro

Italy
2 :  1
Albania

Jun 9, 2024 - International Friendlies

Italy
1 :  0
Bosnia Herzegovina

Jun 4, 2024 - International Friendlies

Italy
0 :  0
Turkey

Mar 24, 2024 - International Friendlies

Italy
2 :  0
Ecuador

Nov 17, 2023 - Euro

Italy
5 :  2
North Macedonia

Oct 14, 2023 - Euro

Italy
4 :  0
Malta
L W D L D W
Victories

2/6 (33%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.83 Total goals
83% BTTS
1.33 Goals scored
1.5 Goals conceded
67% Over 2.5
33% Under 2.5

Mar 21, 2024 - International Friendlies

Venezuela
1 :  2
Italy

Nov 20, 2023 - Euro

Ukraine
0 :  0
Italy

Oct 17, 2023 - Euro

England
3 :  1
Italy

Sep 9, 2023 - Euro

North Macedonia
1 :  1
Italy

Jun 18, 2023 - UEFA Nations League

Netherlands
2 :  3
Italy

Jun 15, 2023 - UEFA Nations League

Spain
2 :  1
Italy

Spain against Italy : Head to Head (H2H)

Spain

60 %

Draw

40 %

Italy

0 %

Average stats (last H2H results)

2.6
Total goals
80%
BTTS
1.8
Goals scored (Team 1)
0.8
Goals scored (Team 2)
60%
Over 2.5
40%
Under 2.5

Jun 15, 2023 - UEFA Nations League

Spain
2 :  1
Italy

Oct 6, 2021 - UEFA Nations League

Italy
1 :  2
Spain

Jul 6, 2021 - Euro

Italy
1 :  1
Spain

Sep 2, 2017 - World Cup

Spain
3 :  0
Italy

Oct 6, 2016 - World Cup

Italy
1 :  1
Spain

Spain - Italy: Form Analysis

Spain have now won 11 of their last 13 games, a run that includes a 2-1 success over Italy in the semi finals of the 2023 Nations League. The Spaniards went on to beat Croatia on penalties in the final to claim their first trophy since the 2012 Euros. At the 2022 World Cup, Spain suffered a heartbreaking penalty shootout defeat to Morocco in the last sixteen, meaning they have been eliminated from the last three major tournaments via penalties. 

On the other hand, Italy triumphed at Euro 2020 thanks to a penalty shootout victory over England in the final. Since then, their form has been a mixed bag. They missed out on a place at the World Cup in 2022, and had to settle for second place in their qualification group for this tournament. However, they have improved in recent months and are now unbeaten in seven games. 

The two sides met in the semi finals of Euro 2020. The game saw Morata scoring a late equalizer to cancel out Federico Chiesa's opener, before the Italians prevailed 4-3 in the penalty shootout. Overall, Spain have 14 wins in the head to head, compared to 10 for Italy, with 12 of the encounters ending all square. 

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Spain against Italy Lineups: Starting 11

Spain

Formation : 4 - 3 - 3

23
U. Simon
2
D. Carvajal
3
R. Le Normand
14
A. Laporte
24
M. Cucurella
20
Pedri
16
Rodri
8
F. Ruiz
19
L. Yamal
7
A. Morata
17
N. Williams
9
G. Scamacca
14
F. Chiesa
10
L. Pellegrini
7
D. Frattesi
8
Jorginho
18
N. Barella
3
F. Dimarco
5
R. Calafiori
23
A. Bastoni
2
G. Di Lorenzo
1
G. Donnarumma

Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1

Italy

Spain & Italy Squad Analysis

Spain lost Alvaro Morata to injury during the second half of the Croatia game, but the striker is expected to be fit to start on Thursday. With no other fresh injury concerns, Spain boss Luis Enrique is expected to name an unchanged side. He will once again look for his midfield trio of Pedri, Rodri and Ruiz to control the game, something they did to incredibly good effect against Croatia. 16 year old Lamine Yamal will also retain his place in the front three after impressing in the Croatia game. 

Italy midfielder Nicolo Fagioli missed the Albania game with a bruised fibula, but is expected to be available for selection on Thursday. However, coach Luciano Spalletti is likely to opt for the eleven that started the Albania game. Nicolo Barella was instrumental in that victory, aside from scoring the winning goal, he proved a constant threat to the Albanians with his proving passes and intelligent runs. Along with fellow midfielder Lorenzo Pellegrini, Barella will need to be at his best to win what is sure to be a fierce battle in the middle of the park. 

Most goals and assists

CD Huachipato Spain
CD Huachipato Italy
Top Goalscorer
Spain D. Olmo (3 Goals)
Top Goalscorer
Italy N. Barella (1 Goals) Italy A. Bastoni (1 Goals) Italy M. Zaccagni (1 Goals)
Best assists
Spain L. Yamal (4 Assists)
Best assists
Italy L. Pellegrini (1 Assists)
Italy R. Calafiori (1 Assists)

Spain - Italy Key Points

  1. Both teams have scored in 4 of the last 5 games between the teams
  2. Italy have unbeaten in their last 7 games
  3. Spain have scored in 10 of their last 11 games
  4. 12 of the 36 games between Spain and Italy have ended all square
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Our Spain vs Italy Prediction

This should be an absolutely cracking game, but picking a winner is a very tough task. The bookies make Spain strong favorites, but we don't think they will find it easy against an Italian side who have a knack for performing on the big occasions. There will be potential matchwinners all over the pitch, but we think the two sides would both be happy with a draw. That would put both teams on four points and virtually guarantee their progress to the knockout stage.  Our prediction for Spain vs Italy is: Both Teams to Score: Yes, -120 at BetMGM.

Prediction:

 

Both Teams to Score: Yes

-120
$1500 offered for betting!

Spain vs Italy - Other Interesting Picks

Fabian Ruiz first goalscorer

Odds +2000
Ruiz is not widely known for his goalscoring, but his strike against Croatia was a superb effort that highlighted his quick feet and shooting prowess. He got into a number of advanced positions in the game, and we think he will do so again on Thursday. Odds of 21.00 look like excellent value.
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Correct score 1-1

Odds +525
two of the last three Euros games between Italy and Spain have finished 1-1 after ninety minutes, and we think another low scoring draw could be on the cards this time. It's hard to see the game finishing 0-0 given the talent on show, but both defenses are strong so the odds of 6.25 we have 1-1 draw look very attractive.
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Rewards for the Spain vs Italy match!

All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.

Spain vs Italy Picks
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