Liga MX Picks & Predictions
Moneyline Picks
Liga MX, Clausura


Liga MX, Clausura


Liga MX, Clausura


Liga MX, Clausura


Liga MX, Clausura


Liga MX, Clausura


Liga MX, Clausura


Liga MX: Picks and Predictions
Liga MX is the top category of professional Mexican football, representing the first division, which includes both the Apertura and Clausura tournaments. The regular season starts almost alongside the major European leagues and is characterized by being one of the most competitive leagues in the Americas, and also boasts an infrastructure that closely resembles that seen in other prestigious tournaments like the Brasileirao.
Despite this, the difference in format continues to spark internal debate since having the opportunity to become champion every six months has led to observations that sometimes teams do not give their all on the field with the goal of winning each matchday. However, it is undeniable that with a direct elimination phase in the finals, surprises are commonplace and the spectacle is guaranteed for the Mexican fans.
For the new edition of the Apertura 2024, Mexican teams will have to consider their participation in international tournaments such as the Leagues Cup, an international tournament in combination with the MLS with a duration of one month, and that represents the possibility of achieving a new international title.
With all this in consideration, we present below the predictions, data, and much more useful information that should be analyzed before the start of a new edition of Liga MX.
Free Liga MX Predictions: Who will win Liga MX?
Predicting the winner of a competition is always tricky, especially when it comes to tournaments like Liga MX. Not only do you have to consider the regular season, where many teams tend to perform at their best while others barely manage to qualify for the playoffs, but also their performance in the Liguilla, the critical stage where any mistake could knock you out.
To understand this uncertainty, just recall what happened in the last Apertura 2024, where Cruz Azul finished as the regular season leader, breaking historical records for short tournaments. However, they ended up losing in the semifinals to América, a team that barely made it into the Liguilla through the Play-In. In the end, Las Águilas became champions, securing their third consecutive title.
Both Cruz Azul and América are clear favorites to repeat as champions. Three other teams that promise to be contenders are Monterrey, Tigres, and Toluca, all of whom have strengthened their squads to achieve this goal. Additionally, Chivas de Guadalajara and Pumas UNAM want to assert their status as top clubs and have the talent to do so.
Odds on the Favorite for the Championship
- Club America +190
- Toluca +500
- Tigres UANL +600
- Cruz Azul +650
- Leon +800
- Monterrey +1200
- Pachuca +1200
- Necaxa +1600
- Guadalajara +2800
- Pumas UNAM +3000
- Juarez +7500
- Atlas +25000
- Mazatlan +50000
- Atletico San Luis +75000
- Santos Laguna +100000
- Puebla +100000
- Club Tijuana +100000
- Queretaro +100000
Odds from Caesars Sportsbook.
Predictions on the top teams in Liga MX: Who will book a spot in Concachampions?
As previously mentioned, the new format of Liga MX will allow the top 6 teams to directly enter the knockout stage, commonly known as the Liguilla. This means that teams with exceptional performances will have the opportunity to reach this stage with fresh legs. Among these teams, the top 4 have a real advantage, as they will host the second leg of their Round of 16 matches due to their position in the standings. As the tournament progresses, the team with the best regular-season record will determine the home team for the return leg of each matchup. For the Apertura 2024 edition, these 4 teams were Cruz Azul, Toluca, Tigres UANL, and Monterrey.
As for the remaining 3 teams—Pumas UNAM, Monterrey, and Atlético San Luis—they complete the list of teams that directly qualified for the knockout stage, a race for these spots that, as expected, was tightly contested with only a few points separating them in the general standings.
Now, regarding the Concachampions, it is important to highlight that América, Tigres, Rayados, Chivas, Pumas, and Cruz Azul have already qualified based on their positions or points accumulated in the previous season. However, their performance in the Clausura 2025 will have an impact on the qualifications for the 2026 edition of the Concacaf tournament.
Liga MX Prediction: Which teams will qualify for the Play-In?
Among the still-present novelties in Liga MX, it is clear that the Play-In phase stands out significantly. It is important to remember that the teams finishing the season between 7th and 10th place will compete in a reclassification phase. Through this phase, the final two teams for the Liguilla will be determined, with the winners of the match between the 7th and 8th placed teams, as well as the winner of the 9th vs. 10th match against the loser of the 7th vs. 8th match, qualifying.
In the Apertura 2024 edition, there was a big surprise in the teams that secured these spots, as América and Chivas, two clubs that are usually fighting at the top of the standings, were involved. However, América ended up securing the spot for the Liguilla. Tijuana and Atlas were the other two teams that completed the 4 qualifiers for the Play-In. Tijuana managed to advance to the knockout stage but was quickly eliminated by Cruz Azul.
Liga MX Relegation Forecasts: Teams Fighting to Avoid Last Place
Another aspect that sets Liga MX apart from others is that currently, no team can be relegated. This is a management decision based on the argument of strengthening the clubs that make up the Liga de Expansión MX. Nonetheless, there is still pressure among the teams not to finish last in the percentage table because that position incurs a fine, a situation no director would want to face with a sum of approximately 5 million dollars at stake. In this regard, clubs like Mazatlán and Querétaro are commonly in the fight to avoid such situations, so it will be interesting to observe the performance of these teams in this competition.
Prediction on the top scorer of Clausura 2024: Which player will score the most goals?
The 2024 Apertura edition of Liga MX saw a much more offensive performance compared to the previous season's Clausura, at least according to the list of goal scorers during the regular season. While the top scorer's title was shared among several players with 8 goals each, in this Apertura, the number of goals increased significantly. This is a sign of what these forwards could continue to deliver heading into the Liguilla stage, where it will be crucial for them to maintain this level of performance. The forwards who top the goal-scoring list are as follows:
- Paulinho, Toluca – 13 goals
- Ángel Sepúlveda, Cruz Azul – 9 goals
- Henry Martín, América – 8 goals
- Sergio Canales, Monterrey – 8 goals
- Carlos Rotondi, Cruz Azul – 7 goals
- Andre-Pierre Gignac, Tigres UANL – 7 goals
In the Liguilla phase, the top scorer was Germán Berterame (4 goals), who surpassed Rodrigo Aguirre (3 goals) as the standout player in this stage of the tournament.
With the current roster situation in Liga MX, taking into account team hierarchy and recent performances, some contenders for the top scorer title in the Clausura 2025 Tournament include: Paulinho (Toluca), Giorgos Giakoumakis (Cruz Azul), Ángel Sepúlveda (Cruz Azul), Henry Martín (América), Rodrigo Aguirre (América), Germán Berterame (Monterrey), and André-Pierre Gignac (Tigres UANL), among others.
Liga MX: Golden Boot Odds
- Diber Cambindo -200
- Paulinho +500
- Uros Djurdjevic +600
- John Kennedy +1100
- Alexis Vega +1400
- Salomon Rondon +3000
Odds from Caesars Sportsbook.
Getting Started in Sports Betting: How Does Liga MX Work?
Liga MX, as previously reviewed, is the top professional football league in Mexico, consisting of 18 teams that compete in two short championships per year, called Apertura and Clausura. Considering this, the teams play a regular season consisting of 17 matchdays, a situation that is repeated during both short tournaments. In this sense, by combining both tournaments, it can be seen that teams play home and away throughout the calendar year, making it crucial to take advantage of home games to achieve each club's objectives.
Once the regular phase ends, the standings directly influence the clubs in the following way:
- The top 6 teams in the overall standings qualify directly for the Liguilla.
- From seventh to tenth place, teams qualify for the Play-In phase to compete for the two remaining spots in the Liguilla.
- Teams from eleventh to eighteenth are out of the competition.
- The champion team and the finalist have direct access to the next edition of the CONCACAF Champions Cup.
- The team that accumulates the most points over the calendar year also gains direct access to the next edition of the CONCACAF Champions Cup.
As can be seen, there are many circumstances in which Liga MX teams can be involved, with the fact that the passionate Mexican fans always ensure that the spectacle significantly increases during each matchday.
How to Bet on Liga MX?
To make better predictions in Liga MX, it's more than necessary to understand the dynamics of the game, where, although there are really attractive games with frequent goals, also, being short tournaments with a good number of matchdays, it's important to highlight that the first 4 or 5 matchdays of the championship pass without much fanfare and with very few memorable performances from the participating teams. This is precisely when it's worthwhile to look at the goals and cards markets during these tight moments of the season. Additionally, as specialists in this league, at SportyTrader we offer you the following recommendations to succeed in your predictions:
- Check the performance of the teams, their signings, and the coaching staff
- Consider possible absences due to injury and suspension
- Compare the odds offered for your preferred markets pre-match and live
- Check the schedule of international club tournaments such as the Concachampions and Leagues Cup
- Never underestimate, but also do not overvalue any team based on their financial power
All of the above are valid tips that our experts have gathered based on their experience betting on Liga MX matches. Below, you will find a more detailed explanation for each of them!
Verify the performance of the teams, their signings, and the coaching staff
One of the first aspects you should pay attention to when betting on Liga MX is the immediate current form of all the teams, since, sometimes, even if the first place in the overall standings is facing the last place, if the short-term streaks of both teams are completely opposite, a result that might be considered surprising can be expected for anyone who does not closely follow the Mexican teams.
Additionally, the role of the coaching staff is very significant, as currently, the Mexican player seems to look more for a figure of motivation rather than one of demand, so the team's morale should be analyzed prior to each match.
In this sense, it's important not to overlook all these aspects, and it is even feasible, at times, that the media might play a role in favoring or against the performance of the players, who often have shown not to be 100% focused on sports, but also get involved in issues unrelated to the field.
Consider possible absences due to injury and suspension.

Another important aspect to consider is potential absences due to injury or suspension. Therefore, staying up-to-date with the latest team news is crucial, as injuries can occur not only during a match but also during training sessions throughout the week. This is often due to the congested schedules with tournaments such as the Leagues Cup, Concachampions, and international commitments with national teams.
Regarding suspensions, it is important to keep an eye on all matches to consider players who are at risk of missing a match due to an accumulation of yellow cards or a red card. Sometimes, teams appeal the decisions of the Disciplinary Commission, which can nullify the sanction, or even extend it.
Compare the odds offered for your preferred markets pre-match and live
One of the fundamental aspects that any bettor should consider are the odds offered by sportsbooks, being extremely important to analyze them in detail to complement the analysis performed on the performance of the involved teams. This will allow you to have a significant advantage in reading the expectations before the start of the match, and subsequently, it will also help you better understand the variations that occur once the event begins, making that moment one of the favorites to seek to maximize your profits while enjoying your favorite events.
Check the schedule of international club tournaments such as the Concachampions and the Leagues Cup.

Regarding the schedule, this factor is extremely important, as player fatigue, both physical and mental, also plays a key role in the outcome of a match. The fact of facing mid-week matches in continental competitions like the CONCACAF Champions League can be decisive in the results in Liga MX, especially if the players had to endure a very long round-trip journey.
On the other hand, major national team tournaments in the summer can also directly affect the performance of players, and consequently, the teams, as the top stars will look to preserve their physical condition to continue performing well, and possibly, be considered for upcoming tournaments.
Never underestimate, but also do not overvalue any team based on their financial power.
Finally, not underestimating or overvaluing any team allows for maintaining an objective perspective of the matches. Regardless of the budget differences between the teams, the reality is that with eleven against eleven, matches tend to be quite entertaining and evenly matched. Thus, the only thing that will define the outcome of the match is the condition the players are in during the 90 minutes of each game. It is a fact that, since they are not machines, they cannot maintain a truly constant level of play, and at some point, they are bound to lose a game regardless of the opponent they face.
What Not to Do for Your Liga MX Predictions
Another aspect to consider to maximize potential gains in your Liga MX predictions is to avoid the following list of actions that can put your capital at risk:
- Betting based on hunches or fanaticism
- Always placing bets in favor of favorite teams (Monterrey, América, etc.)
- Not analyzing the variations of initial odds against final odds
- Betting without dedicating time to the analysis of trends, histories, and streaks
- Desperately trying to recover a previously lost bet
- Making excessive live bets
- Being guided by the biased opinion of some media outlets
As can be seen, the list of potential mistakes is long, but avoiding them significantly increases your chances of making profits while enjoying truly competitive matches in Liga MX.
Predictions for Mexico's First Division: the statistics you need to know
In addition to everything mentioned above, stats are key in maximizing your potential earnings with the Mexican Soccer League. Therefore, we present to you the most outstanding statistics of the Clausura 2024 season, hoping that they will help you to have a broader overview of what to expect for the Clausura 2024:
- Home Wins: 70 (46%)
- Ties: 38 (25%)
- Away wins: 45 (30%)
- Average goals per game: 2.99 goals per game
- +1.5 Goals: 80%
- -1.5 Goals: 10%
- +2.5 Goals: 54%
- -2.5 Goals: 46%
- +3.5 Goals: 31%
- -3.5 Goals: 69%
- Both Teams to Score: 56%
- Average number of visiting goals per game: 1.20 goals per game
- Exact result 0-0: 5.3%
- Most frequent scorelines: 1-1 (14.4%) and 1-0 (9.7%)
All this data is very important when placing a bet, as it generally allows you to establish how likely it is that teams will continue to collect matches with goals, as well as determine the probability of both teams scoring, thus enabling the generation of much more interesting value bets.
In Conclusion: How to successfully place your Liga MX bets?
To achieve your goal of being profitable in the long term, you should take into account all the recommendations we have provided at SportyTrader, always remembering to remain impartial when placing your bets, as this will give you a significant advantage over others. Additionally, always keeping in mind the statistics of the matches creates a confident environment that gives you greater flexibility when betting, always being a good idea to use handicap markets, both pre-match for live betting, from the start of the tournament, the round of 16 and quarterfinals, semifinals up to the final.
Furthermore, the sports predictions from our team of Liga MX experts are always available so you can use them as a guide, remembering that all these predictions are free and available days before each event, with a commitment to cover Liga MX from start to finish.
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