Ligue 1 Picks & Predictions
Moneyline Picks
Ligue 1
PSG
Le Havre
Ligue 1
Monaco
Strasbourg
Ligue 1
Marseille
Montpellier Hsc
Ligue 1
Lille
Auxerre
Ligue 1
Nice
Angers
Ligue 1
Reims
Toulouse
Ligue 1
Saint Etienne
Lyon
Ligue 1 Overview and Predictions
Ligue 1 predictions are among the most popular soccer previews in the US. Almost every week of the year, bettors place wagers on the matches of the 18 best French clubs, all battling for the title, European spots, or simply to survive and stay in Ligue 1.
From the first matchday in August to the final one in May 2025, our experts’ Ligue 1 predictions help you perform better on online sports betting sites. Check out our general predictions below, along with statistics and tips to help you make the best Ligue 1 picks.
Ligue 1 Winner Prediction: Who Will Take the Trophy in 2024-2025?
© IMAGO
In its second season with 18 teams, and for the first time without Kylian Mbappé wearing PSG colors, Ligue 1 is set to be fiercely competitive from top to bottom through the end of the 2024-2025 season!
On the various pitches of the league—from the Vélodrome to Pierre Mauroy Stadium, Groupama Stadium, and the Parc des Princes—the best clubs in France will fight for the championship title, spots in the Champions League, Europa League, Conference League, and simply to stay in the top division.
When it comes to the trophy, PSG were once again the sportsbook's favorite before the season kicked off. Even with the departure of the club’s all-time top scorer, it’s hard to see Paris Saint-Germain missing their chance to win a fourth consecutive title and keep the trophy in the capital.
Monaco, Lyon, Lille, and Marseille shouldn’t be underestimated, but they’ll struggle to compete across 34 matchdays and will likely be fighting for European spots instead. Our Ligue 1 prediction: PSG to be the 2024-2025 French champions!
Ligue 1 Futures (without PSG)
- Marseille -145
- Monaco +150
- Lyon +1100
- Lille +2200
- Nice +5000
Odds from BetMGM
Ligue 1 Prediction for the Top 4: Who Will Qualify for the Champions League?
© IMAGO
A new development since last season, in light of the new format for the Champions League in the 2024-2025 edition, is that in addition to the future French champion, the teams finishing second, third, and fourth in Ligue 1 will secure their spots in the Champions League (with potential playoffs for the fourth-place finisher). This shakes things up, as in previous years, the third-place team only earned a spot in the qualification playoffs, and the fourth-place team didn’t qualify at all. As far as the 4 Champions League spots, our prediction is as follows: PSG, Monaco, Marseille, and Lyon in the top 4!
Just behind PSG, who we expect to be crowned French champions, Monaco seems more than capable of securing a place on the podium, just like they did last season. Lyon, in line with the strong finish to last year’s season, could finally return to the top of the table. Marseille, with their new coach Roberto De Zerbi, also have the opportunity to shine and make a return to the Champions League, especially since the club won’t have European competition to worry about this season and can focus entirely on the league. Outside of these clubs, don't forget about Lille, Nice, Rennes, and Lens as they have the potential to surprise!
Ligue 1: Top 4 Finish Futures (without PSG)
- Marseille -1200
- Monaco -500
- Lyon +100
- Lille +200
- Strasbourg +225
- Nice +250
- Stade Brest +8000
- Lens +8000
Odds from BetMGM
Europa League Qualification: Which Ligue 1 Club Will Make it to the Europa League?
© IMAGO
In addition to the winner of the French Cup, the team finishing fifth in Ligue 1 will qualify for the Europa League for the 2025-2026 season. In this race for the Europa League, we find the same clubs mentioned earlier (Monaco, Marseille, Lyon), along with Lille, Nice, Lens, and Rennes. The fifth spot could very well go to Lille who have recently splashed on a new head coach (Bruno Genesio) who is no stranger to the French top flight.
So, picking up from our prediction for the top 4 of Ligue 1, we add Lille just behind. Our prediction: PSG, Monaco, Marseille, Lyon, and Lille in the top 5!
Conference League Qualification: Which Ligue 1 Club Will Make It?
© IMAGO
The team that finishes 6th in Ligue 1 this season—or 7th, depending on the winner of the French Cup—will earn the a spot in next season's UEFA Conference League. The third-tier European competition in terms of prestige, the Conference League has already seen clubs like OGC Nice, Stade Rennais, Olympique de Marseille, and Lille, with the latter even reaching the quarterfinals last year. This year, it’s RC Lens' turn to try their luck! Needless to say, securing at least this European spot is a goal for most of the top French clubs.
Picking up from our top 5, we can see Lens sliding in just behind all the big names and claiming the final European spot via the league. Indeed, Lens have had a series of strong seasons since their promotion, but the competition level seems too high for them to aim for anything better than this third-tier European competition. Our prediction: PSG, Monaco, Marseille, Lyon, Lille, and Lens in the top 6!
Relegation Prediction: Which Ligue 1 Clubs Will Be Relegated?
© IMAGO
At the bottom of the standings, the battle for survival is intense in Ligue 1 this season. Remember, the teams finishing 17th and 18th at the end of the season will be relegated to Ligue 2 for the 2025-2026 season, and the team finishing 16th will play a relegation playoff against a Ligue 2 club to stay up.
In this fight to avoid the bottom three spots, several clubs are involved, and we predict the following: Montpellier, Le Havre, and Angers will be among the last three! While Montpellier is usually comfortable in mid-table, the transfer market, controversies, and the overall atmosphere around the club didn't inspire much confidence before the season kicked off. Le Havre, for their part, flirted with the relegation zone throughout last season, and Angers seems to be the least equipped promoted club to survive. At least on paper...
2024-2025 Ligue 1 Top Scorer Prediction
© IMAGO
In addition to the team goals, there's an individual title that’s especially competitive in Ligue 1: the golden boot. So, which forward could become the top scorer in the French league in 2024-2025? Here’s a list of players to watch this season:
- Bradley Barcola (PSG)
- Jonathan David (Lille)
- Ousmane Dembélé (PSG)
- Arnaud Kalimuendo (PSG)
Kylian Mbappé, the top scorer for the last six Ligue 1 seasons, has moved to La Liga with Real Madrid and won’t be claiming a sixth consecutive title. So, the race is completely wide open, and the suspense should be high all the way through the end of the season!
Ligue 1 Top Scorer Futures
- Ousmane Dembele -3000
- Mason Greenwood +1000
- Jonathan David +2000
- Bradley Barcola +6600
- Arnaud Kalimuendo +50000
Odds from BetMGM
Beginner Bettors – How Does Ligue 1 Work for Your Sports Bets?
Ligue 1 is the top-tier French soccer league. This elite competition features the 18 best French teams, competing in a home-and-away format. From August to December, all the clubs face off once, and the schedule repeats from January to May. So, each team plays every other team twice—once at home and once away. In total, there are 34 matchdays, making up 306 matches.
At the end of the season, several positions have an impact on the future of the clubs:
- The team finishing in 1st place is the French champion and qualifies for the Champions League.
- The teams finishing 2nd and 3rd also qualify for the Champions League.
- The team finishing in 4th place qualifies for the Champions League qualification rounds.
- The team finishing in 5th place qualifies for the Europa League.
- The team finishing in 6th place (or 7th, depending on the winner of the French Cup) qualifies for the Conference League.
- The team finishing in 16th place plays a relegation playoff to avoid dropping down to Ligue 2.
- The teams finishing in 17th and 18th are relegated to Ligue 2.
So, there are multiple stakes in this French soccer league, which is why Ligue 1 predictions are the most popular among American bettors on the top online sportsbooks for soccer.
How to Make Accurate Ligue 1 Predictions?
Successful Ligue 1 predictions require knowledge of the league, as well as good betting practices. A specialist in Ligue 1 for many years, SportyTrader shares its top tips for making accurate predictions:
- Check the team form in Ligue 1
- Consider the form of key Ligue 1 players
- Know the list of absent Ligue 1 players
- Assess the psychological context
- Analyze the latest stats in the French league
These 5 tips for predicting Ligue 1 matches are the most important according to our editorial team, although they aren't the only factors to consider. We’ll go into more detail on each one below.
Check the team form in Ligue 1
© IMAGO
The first step in making a reliable prediction on Ligue 1 is to check the latest results of the two teams involved in your soccer bet. For example, if PSG is playing Lens, but PSG hasn’t won in three weeks while Lens is unbeaten in 15 matches, despite being the favorite, a more reliable bet might be to take a double chance on a Draw or Lens. A team in good form should always be favored in your Ligue 1 bets.
On this point, we emphasize the importance of not just looking at the most recent scores, but also the performances behind them. Possession, Expected Goals (xG), number of shots allowed, shots on target, fouls committed or suffered, etc., all play a role. Don’t forget that a team might be coming off an unexpected loss in a match where they were just unlucky.
Consider the form of key Ligue 1 players
© IMAGO
Similarly to considering team form, you also need to focus on the individual form of the star players on each team. For example, imagine that a team's top scorer hasn’t scored in the last 10 games, or that the usually solid goalkeeper has made two notable mistakes: their poor form should definitely be taken into account!
Ligue 1 teams are reliant on one or two key players in terms of performance, and when these players are out of form, the results don’t always come through. A real-life example: last year, when Lacazette or David were having a rough patch, Lyon and Lille were much less effective.
Know the list of absent Ligue 1 players
© IMAGO
Building on the previous point, we strongly recommend checking the list of absent players for the upcoming Ligue 1 weekend. Key players might be missing due to injury, suspension, or even a coach's decision to leave a player out, and their absence could significantly impact their team's performance.
Is the team captain suspended? Is one or both of the centerbacks out this week? Has the top scorer been left out of the lineup for bad behavior in training? Be cautious and don’t allocate too much of your bankroll to one match. You might be in for a bad surprise.
Assess the psychological context
© IMAGO
Another good habit for a Ligue 1 bettor is to pay attention to the psychological and mental environment surrounding the match you want to bet on. Several factors should be considered here: rivalry between clubs, media statements before the match, a recent tense confrontation, the stakes of the game... anything that could mentally affect the teams should not be overlooked.
If you're a fan of betting on Over 2.5 goals in Ligue 1 (more than 2.5 goals total), be cautious with matchups where the pressure is high (relegation battles at the end of the season, derbies), as these are less likely to be high-scoring. If a team has lost 6 straight matches against their opponent, avoid betting on their victory—they’ll likely have a psychological disadvantage. There are many possible scenarios, so make sure to analyze them carefully (our expert tipsters take these into account when making their Ligue 1 weekend predictions).
Analyze the latest stats in the French league
© IMAGO
Finally, the fifth key piece of advice is to always analyze the statistics of each Ligue 1 club. Knowing the different stats will help you make better predictions and bet like an expert on alternative markets (total goals, exact score, match result, which half will have the most goals, etc.).
Has a team hit the "Over 2.5 goals" in 80% of their Ligue 1 matches this season? You might want to take a chance on them for the upcoming match. This is just one example of how you can use stats to guide your betting. Don’t hesitate to take advantage of a sportsbook's bonus to place a few bets.
To wrap up these main tips, know that our editorial team always takes these factors into account when making every Ligue 1 prediction of the season, along with about ten other algorithmic parameters.
By simply checking our Ligue 1 result predictions, you'll get the most reliable overall view of the upcoming matchdays. So, make it a habit to read our predictions before each Ligue 1 weekend.
What Not to Do When Making Ligue 1 Predictions
To be successful with your Ligue 1 predictions, there are certain behaviors to avoid. Here’s what we strongly advise against when making a prediction for Ligue 1:
- Not analyzing the match in detail
- Only considering the prestige of a club
- Simply betting on the lowest odds
- Betting on a meaningless Ligue 1 match at the end of the season
- Chasing losses after losing a Ligue 1 bet
- Jumping on boosted odds without analysis
- Repeatedly betting on your favorite team
Every week, many bettors—both beginners and experienced—get caught up and lose money too easily by adopting one of these behaviors. So, make sure not to make these mistakes this season in Ligue 1.
Ligue 1 Stats to Know for Your Predictions
To succeed with your Ligue 1 bets, it’s important to understand the major statistics of France’s top soccer league. Here are the key numbers to keep in mind for your Ligue 1 predictions, taken from the 2023-24 edition of the competition (the first season with 18 teams):
- Home wins: 39%
- Draws: 26%
- Away wins: 34%
- Average goals per match: 2.70
- Over 0.5 goals: 95%
- Under 0.5 goals: 5%
- Over 1.5 goals: 75%
- Under 1.5 goals: 25%
- Over 2.5 goals: 53%
- Under 2.5 goals: 47%
- Over 3.5 goals: 29%
- Under 3.5 goals: 71%
- "Both teams to score: yes": 54%
- Average goals per match at home: 1.45
- Average goals per match away: 1.25
- Average shots per match: 21.07
- Home team scores first: 46%
- Away team scores first: 45%
- Winning by 2 goals or more (handicap): 36% of matches
- Exact score 0-0: 8.8% of matches
- Exact score 1-1: 10.5% of matches
- Most frequent score: 2-1 or 1-2 (16.7% of matches)
- Most goals in the final 15 minutes: 76'-90' (23%)
For your Ligue 1 sports betting, focus on bets like “Over 2.5 goals,” “Both teams to score: yes,” or even some exact score bets. If the odds are favorable, the double chance N2 could also help you win some money. Of course, nothing is guaranteed in advance.
In short: How to make accurate Ligue 1 predictions and bet wisely on a Ligue 1 match?
© IMAGO
To make reliable and winning predictions on Ligue 1 soccer, there are several things you should do: analyze the matches, follow the best practices outlined on this page, understand how the league works, and familiarize yourself with the most important stats.
If you don't have the time to analyze every Ligue 1 match in detail, you can simply check out the predictions from our Ligue 1 experts, available each week at the top of this page. These predictions are free, accessible, and 100% human (no fully automated or robotic analysis!). They’ll help you make smart bets on the French league this season.
Our Current Top Ligue 1 Predictions
There are no previews at the moment for this competition
Ligue 1 Soccer Betting Odds
Odds are not yet available for this competition.
