Real Madrid vs Arsenal Prediction & Picks - Champions League

Europe - Champions League

Real Madrid
4/16/25 15:00
Arsenal

Prediction:

 

Vinicius Junior to Score

+175
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 by Bradley Gibbs | in Champions League Picks

A week after their resounding home win in the first leg, the Gunners travel to the Spanish capital of Madrid, where they will look to complete a job that is more than half done against a Real Madrid team that struggled to get going last week. Will Mikel Arteta's men get over the line and reach the final four? Or will the hosts, as they often have in recent years, prove how strong they are at home in this competition and turn things around from a seemingly impossible position? 

Let's be honest, Los Blancos were not at the races in North London, especially in the final third, while they lacked defensive solidity too. However, with a Bernabeu crowd behind them, they could very easily turn in a contrasting effort. After all, in recent weeks, we've seen Carlo Ancelotti's men beat the likes of Atletico Madrid and Man City at home. Then again, we've also seen them lose to the likes of Barcelona and AC Milan, so who knows what's going to happen here. 

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Real Madrid vs Arsenal Form

Real Madrid and Arsenal Latest Matches

Real Madrid
Real Madrid Latest matches
W W D L L W
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.83 Total goals
67% BTTS
1.83 Goals scored
2 Goals conceded
83% Over 2.5
17% Under 2.5

Apr 13, 2025 - LaLiga

Alavés
0 :  1
Real Madrid

Apr 8, 2025 - Champions League

Arsenal
3 :  0
Real Madrid

Apr 5, 2025 - LaLiga

Real Madrid
1 :  2
Valencia

Apr 1, 2025 - Copa del Rey

Real Madrid
4 :  4
Real Sociedad

Mar 29, 2025 - LaLiga

Real Madrid
3 :  2
Leganés

Mar 15, 2025 - LaLiga

Villarreal
1 :  2
Real Madrid
W W W W D L
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

4 Total goals
83% BTTS
2.33 Goals scored
1.67 Goals conceded
83% Over 2.5
17% Under 2.5

Apr 5, 2025 - LaLiga

Real Madrid
1 :  2
Valencia

Apr 1, 2025 - Copa del Rey

Real Madrid
4 :  4
Real Sociedad

Mar 29, 2025 - LaLiga

Real Madrid
3 :  2
Leganés

Mar 9, 2025 - LaLiga

Real Madrid
2 :  1
Rayo Vallecano

Mar 4, 2025 - Champions League

Real Madrid
2 :  1
Atletico Madrid

Feb 23, 2025 - LaLiga

Real Madrid
2 :  0
Girona
W L L W L W
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

3/6 (50%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2 Total goals
33% BTTS
0.83 Goals scored
1.17 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

Apr 13, 2025 - LaLiga

Alavés
0 :  1
Real Madrid

Apr 8, 2025 - Champions League

Arsenal
3 :  0
Real Madrid

Mar 15, 2025 - LaLiga

Villarreal
1 :  2
Real Madrid

Mar 12, 2025 - Champions League

Atletico Madrid
1 :  0
Real Madrid

Mar 1, 2025 - LaLiga

Betis
2 :  1
Real Madrid

Feb 26, 2025 - Copa del Rey

Real Sociedad
0 :  1
Real Madrid
Arsenal
Arsenal Latest matches
D W W D W D
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Draw

3/6 (50%)

Defeats

0/6 (0%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.5 Total goals
67% BTTS
1.67 Goals scored
0.83 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

Apr 12, 2025 - Premier League

Arsenal
1 :  1
Brentford

Apr 8, 2025 - Champions League

Arsenal
3 :  0
Real Madrid

Apr 5, 2025 - Premier League

Everton
1 :  1
Arsenal

Apr 1, 2025 - Premier League

Arsenal
2 :  1
Fulham

Mar 16, 2025 - Premier League

Arsenal
1 :  0
Chelsea

Mar 12, 2025 - Champions League

Arsenal
2 :  2
PSV Eindhoven
L D W W W D
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.33 Total goals
50% BTTS
1.5 Goals scored
0.83 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

Apr 12, 2025 - Premier League

Arsenal
1 :  1
Brentford

Apr 8, 2025 - Champions League

Arsenal
3 :  0
Real Madrid

Apr 1, 2025 - Premier League

Arsenal
2 :  1
Fulham

Mar 16, 2025 - Premier League

Arsenal
1 :  0
Chelsea

Mar 12, 2025 - Champions League

Arsenal
2 :  2
PSV Eindhoven

Feb 22, 2025 - Premier League

Arsenal
0 :  1
West Ham
L W D W D D
Victories

2/6 (33%)

Draw

3/6 (50%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.67 Total goals
50% BTTS
1.83 Goals scored
0.83 Goals conceded
17% Over 2.5
83% Under 2.5

Apr 5, 2025 - Premier League

Everton
1 :  1
Arsenal

Mar 9, 2025 - Premier League

Manchester United
1 :  1
Arsenal

Mar 4, 2025 - Champions League

PSV Eindhoven
1 :  7
Arsenal

Feb 26, 2025 - Premier League

Nottingham Forest
0 :  0
Arsenal

Feb 15, 2025 - Premier League

Leicester
0 :  2
Arsenal

Feb 5, 2025 - Carabao Cup

Newcastle
2 :  0
Arsenal

Real Madrid against Arsenal : Head to Head (H2H)

Real Madrid

0 %

Draw

50 %

Arsenal

50 %

Average stats (last H2H results)

3.5
Total goals
50%
BTTS
1
Goals scored (Team 1)
2.5
Goals scored (Team 2)
100%
Over 2.5
0%
Under 2.5

Apr 8, 2025 - Champions League

Arsenal
3 :  0
Real Madrid

Jul 23, 2019 - International Champions Cup

Real Madrid
2 :  2
Arsenal

Real Madrid - Arsenal: Form Analysis

For the hosts, consistency hasn't been a friend in recent weeks, with Los Blancos following up back-to-back league wins by being dumped out of the Copa del Rey by Real Sociedad. A home La Liga defeat to Valencia followed, which paved the way for that rather lackluster display at Emirates Stadium. Fortunately, Ancelotti's men regained the winning thread by beating Alaves away at the weekend, and they'll be hoping to use that win as a springboard for a turnaround here. 

Real won over the weekend but still have a steep hill to climb

As far as the Gunners are concerned, recent form has been strong. Wednesday's visitors are unbeaten in nine games (in all competitions), winning four of those and tying five. After that fantastic win last week, they tied with Brentford at the weekend, though we shouldn't read too much into that as they have little to play for domestically. 

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Arsenal v Real Madrid last Lineups

Real Madrid

Formation : 4 - 4 - 2

1
T. Courtois
17
L. Vazquez
35
R. Asencio
22
A. Rudiger
20
F. Garcia
15
A. Guler
8
F. Valverde
14
A. Tchouameni
6
E. Camavinga
9
K. Mbappe
11
Rodrygo
11
G. Martinelli
19
L. Trossard
53
E. Nwaneri
17
O. Zinchenko
41
D. Rice
20
Jorginho
3
K. Tierney
15
J. Kiwior
2
W. Saliba
5
T. Partey
22
D. Raya

Formation : 4 - 3 - 3

Arsenal

Missing players

Real Madrid
Real Madrid
Goalkeeper

A. Lunin

Defender

E. Militao

D. Carvajal

F. Mendy

D. Alaba

Midfielder

D. Ceballos

Arsenal
Arsenal
Defender

T. Tomiyasu

R. Calafiori

G. Magalhaes

Midfielder

D. Rice

Forward

G. Jesus

K. Havertz

B. Saka

Real Madrid & Arsenal Squad Analysis

As has been the case for some time now, Real Madrid will have to make do with the absences of Dani Carvajal and Eder Militao. Eduardo Camavinga, sent off in the first leg, is suspended for this fixture. Andriy Lunin and Ferland Mendy are doubtful. On the good news front, Carlo Ancelotti saw Dani Ceballos return to action last weekend. Aurelien Tchouaméni will be back from suspension after missing the first leg. Last week, Thibaut Courtois was one of the few satisfactions for Madrid. The Belgian goalkeeper was very good in the Madrid goal. Real Madrid's attacking options will be more important than ever. To turn things around, the Merengues will need Rodrygo, Vinicius Junior and Kylian Mbappé. The latter will be keen to make up for the nasty gesture that earned him an expulsion last weekend.

Kylian Mbappé will be out to make up for his sending-off in La Liga last weekend.

As for Arsenal, there are still a number of absentees. Takehiro Tomiyasu, Gabriel, Riccardo Calafiori, Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus are injured. Ben White, Jorginho and Thomas Partey are also doubtful. William Saliba will have to be at his very best to withstand Madrid's onslaught. Declan Rice was one of the players of the first round. The English midfielder scored 2 superb goals from free-kicks. He'll be keen to follow up on this at the Santiago-Bernabéu. Martin Odegaard will also be in the spotlight as he plays at his former club's stadium. Finally, Bukayo Saka will be hoping to make his mark. Having played just 20 minutes last weekend in the Premier League, the Gunners winger has been able to recharge his batteries for this all-important match.

Most goals and assists

CD Huachipato Real Madrid
CD Huachipato Arsenal
Top Goalscorer
France K. Mbappe (29 Goals)
Top Goalscorer
Germany K. Havertz (15 Goals)
Best assists
England J. Bellingham (9 Assists)
Best assists
England B. Saka (13 Assists)

Real Madrid and Arsenal Stats in Champions League

Real Madrid
Real Madrid
Arsenal
Arsenal
62%
Victories
73%
0%
Draw
18%
38%
Defeats
9%
3.69
Total goals per match
3.09
2.15
Goals scored per match
2.55
1.54
Goals conceded per match
0.55
77%
Over 2.5
64%
23%
Under 2.5
36%
62%
BTTS
36%
8%
No goals conceded
55%

Real Madrid - Arsenal Key Points

  1. Vinicius Junior has scored no less than seven goals in the Champions League this season.
  2. Also in the Champions League this season, Vinicius Junior is averaging 0.61 goals per 90 minutes.
  3. Vinicius Junior is averaging 3.02 shots per 90 minutes in the UCL this season.
  4. Vinicius Junior has taken three shots in four of his last five Champions League games.
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Our Real Madrid vs Arsenal Prediction

This is a huge night for the hosts, who really must go all guns blazing from the word go. They have the tools to seriously damage the visitors, and with them looking for plenty of goals, we can expect star player Vinicius Junior to see plenty of the ball. The Brazilian has been in fine scoring form in the UCL this season, especially at home, where he has scored six of his seven goals, so don't be surprised if he finds the net. Our Real Madrid vs Arsenal Pick: Vinicius Junior to Score.

Prediction:

 

Vinicius Junior to Score

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Real Madrid vs Arsenal - Other Interesting Picks

Vinicius Junior Over 1.5 Shots on Target

Odds +125
Given that the hosts need to score at least three goals, we can expect someone like Vinicius Junior to shoot with regularity in this game. Given that he's taken at least three shots in four of his last five UCL games, averaging a whopping 3.8 shots per 90 minutes at home, he looks a good bet to also register two or more shots on target.
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Real Madrid vs Arsenal Picks
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