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by Dan Angell in NCAA Basketball Picks
The Northwestern Wildcats (21-11 SU, 17-14-1 ATS) will open their second straight NCAA tournament, this time facing the Florida Atlantic Owls (25-8 SU, 16-17 ATS). Northwestern limped into the field a little, losing three of their final four contests, including their first game at the Big Ten tournament. The Wildcats had to play those games without center Matthew Nicholson, which took away a large part of their post presence. Northwestern normally excels at denying second-chance opportunities, but it has sorely missed Nicholson's interior presence and is not as strong on defense as it once was.
Florida Atlantic was a surprise Final Four team last season and ran it back this year with much of the same lineup. The Owls have proven themselves to have a high ceiling, but also a low floor. Their resume included a win over Arizona, but FAU also managed to lose to Bryant. That's made them perhaps the toughest team to project in the field, especially with Northwestern not the same team it was earlier in the season.
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Northwestern vs Florida Atlantic Form
Northwestern and Florida Atlantic Latest Matches
Northwestern - Florida Atlantic Key Points
- Seven of Florida Atlantic’s past eight games have been decided by eight points or less.
- Northwestern is 6-2 ATS in its past eight games.
- Northwestern coach Chris Collins is 4-0 ATS in the NCAA tournament.
- The over has cashed in five of Florida Atlantic’s past six ATS victories.
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Our Northwestern vs Florida Atlantic Prediction
Florida Atlantic seems to be living off of last year's reputation more than anything else. Northwestern's injury issues are a concern, but the Wildcats' biggest strength has been their ability to make shots anyway. Northwestern ranked fourth in the nation in 3-point percentage, and Florida Atlantic really struggled to deny good shooting teams good looks at the basket.
The Owls might have the edge inside without Nicholson, but Northwestern still has Boo Buie and can turn games into grinders with its defense. Florida Atlantic really doesn't have the shooters to keep pace with the Wildcats' scorers and doesn't have the personnel needed to take advantage of Nicholson's absence. The Owls only shoot 35% from 3-point range, which isn't good enough if the Wildcats shoot like usual. Our prediction for Northwestern vs. Florida Atlantic is Northwestern +3.5.
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