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NC St. vs Purdue Prediction & Picks - NCAA Basketball
by Dan Angell | in NCAA Basketball Picks
The NC State Wolfpack (26-14 SU, 20-19-1 ATS) try to keep their miracle run going when they face the Purdue Boilermakers (33-4 SU, 21-15-1 ATS). The Wolfpack have been the best story in March, as coach Kevin Keatts has gone from one loss away from being fired in the ACC tournament to two wins away from a national championship.
But standing in their path is a rather large obstacle in Purdue. Zach Edey took his game to another level in the regional final against Tennessee, scoring 40 points to lift the Boilermakers to their first Final Four in 44 years. Purdue has operated like a well-oiled machine in the tournament, winning three of their four games by double digits and holding off Tennessee after falling behind early.
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NC St. vs Purdue Form
NC St. and Purdue Latest Matches
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NC St. - Purdue: Form Analysis
The biggest key for NC State will be taking and making the opportunities when they come around. The biggest weakness Purdue has on defense is that it doesn't force many turnovers and doesn't try to speed teams up. The Boilermakers believe that they can excel at denying good looks at the hoop, and they've mostly been right. Purdue allows opponents to shoot just 39% from the field and a mere 30.5% from behind the 3-point arc. Both of those rank in the top 15 nationally because they force opponents into either contested looks or shots that look open but aren't from an ideal angle.
State will need to find a way to either make its shots or keep Zach Edey from dominating on the defensive glass. The Wolfpack do have their own inside presence in DJ Burns, but he hasn't gone up against the matchup nightmare that Edey presents down low. State normally excels at second-chance points because of Burns, but it has to go in thinking those opportunities won't be there as often in this game. It has to work the ball around and find a good shot when it comes.
The Wolfpack's other problem is that Purdue has depth like most of its opponents don't. The Boilermakers wear out teams because they can go into their bench with no drop-off in the quality of play. Purdue gets 10 minutes or more from eight different players and has another two players who give close to 10 minutes a night. With State now on its 10th must-win game, that could weigh on the Wolfpack.
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NC St. - Purdue Key Points
- No team seeded lower than a No. 8 seed has ever won a Final Four game.
- Purdue has not lost to an opponent outside of the Big Ten.
- NC State has held seven of its past eight opponents under 70 points in regulation.
- Purdue has covered all four of its NCAA tournament games.
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Our NC St. vs Purdue Prediction
It's hard to pick against State and the momentum it has created, but the Wolfpack look like they've run into a team they can't handle. Burns and DJ Horne have done brilliantly to get this far when the Wolfpack's season appeared to be dead, but Purdue has more shooters and appears to be a team on a mission.
The Boilermakers took Gonzaga and Tennessee's best punch in the regionals and came out of both games unscathed. They've faced early adversity in each of their past three games and come out much stronger for it. State might be able to push Purdue early, but it doesn't have enough depth to hang with the Boilermakers for 40 minutes. Our prediction for NC State vs. Purdue is Purdue -9.
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