Mexico vs Jamaica Prediction & Picks - Copa America
by Dan Angell | in Copa America Picks
Jamaica meets Mexico in the teams' opening match of Copa America for both sides, with major strife in the Jamaican camp leading up to this tournament. Leon Bailey, the biggest star the Reggae Boyz have, remains a question mark as to whether he'll actually show up in Houston. Bailey has said that he would reject the invitation because of a lack of professionalism from the Jamaican Football Federation, but Heimir Hallgrimsson included him in the squad anyway, perhaps more from a hopeful standpoint.
Unlike a lot of nations, Jamaica didn't play any friendlies to lead up to Copa America. If Bailey plays, Jamaica has a reasonable chance to take points off a fairly pedestrian Mexico. El Tri hasn't exactly covered itself in glory in 2024, losing to Brazil, Uruguay and the United States. In each match, the Mexicans gave up multiple goals, and the defense has been fairly leaky for some time now. In eight of Mexico's past 12 matches, the defense has conceded at least twice.
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Mexico vs Jamaica Form
Table
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3
|
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
|
4
|
0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 |
Mexico and Jamaica Latest Matches
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Jun 8, 2024 - International Friendlies
Jun 5, 2024 - International Friendlies
May 31, 2024 - International Friendlies
Mar 24, 2024 - CONCACAF Nations League
Mar 21, 2024 - CONCACAF Nations League
Dec 16, 2023 - International Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Jun 9, 2024 - World Cup
Jun 6, 2024 - World Cup
Mar 24, 2024 - CONCACAF Nations League
Mar 21, 2024 - CONCACAF Nations League
Mar 3, 2024 - International Friendlies
Nov 21, 2023 - CONCACAF Nations League
Mexico against Jamaica : Head to Head (H2H)
60 %
40 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
Jul 12, 2023 - Gold Cup 2011
Mar 26, 2023 - CONCACAF Nations League
Jun 14, 2022 - CONCACAF Nations League
Jan 27, 2022 - World Cup
Sep 2, 2021 - World Cup
Mexico - Jamaica: Form Analysis
Jamaica does have other scoring options besides Leon Bailey, notably Shamar Nicholson. But Nicholson plies his trade in France's second division, and Bailey's the only player the Reggae Boyz have who is both on the right side of 30 and plays in a top league. His potential absence makes it very difficult to trust Jamaica's attack, regardless of the opponent.
The good news is that with or without him, one thing that bettors have been able to count on from Jamaica vs. Mexico is a fair amount of goals. Both teams have scored in four of the past five matchups, and the one exception saw Mexico hit the over itself by finding the net three times. With Group B being by far the weakest at the Copa, there's little reason to expect either side to hold anything back here.
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Mexico against Jamaica Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Missing players
E. Alvarez
A. Blake
DefenderA. Bell
Mexico & Jamaica Squad Analysis
Bailey and Andre Blake are notable potential absences from Jamaica. Mexico has opted to go with a very different lineup, prioritizing youth above all else. Veteran scorers Raul Jimenez and Hirving Lozano have been left home for this tournament, despite Jimenez being on the roster for the Nations League and Lozano called up for the loss to the United States in the Nations League finals. Carlos Acevedo also takes over in the net in place of Guillermo Ochoa, signaling a new era in Mexico.
Mexico - Jamaica Key Points
- Jamaica has won or drawn 12 of its past 13 matches.
- The over has cashed in four of Mexico’s past six matches.
- Jamaica’s past four matches against North American sides have seen both sides score.
- Mexico has given up nine goals in its past four matches.
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Our Mexico vs Jamaica Prediction
Both of these teams are in a flux after Jamaica upset its star and Mexico opted to completely change its roster. The truth is that nobody knows what's likely to happen based on how these rosters look, which means it's better to look toward the styles to find the right way to play this match.
With this match likely to open up based on how these sides play against each other, there's going to be a lot of pressure on the goalkeepers. And that's not ideal for Jamaica, because Andre Blake is out after meniscus surgery. There's a chance Blake could play in the final group game against Venezuela, but realistically, Jamaica has to count on Jahmali White. With respect to him, there's a big difference between the USL and the likes of Mexico. With both sides inexperienced at the back, goals are likely to occur. Our prediction for Mexico vs. Jamaica is Over 2.5 Goals.
Mexico vs Jamaica - Other Interesting Picks
Julian Quinones Anytime Goal Scorer
Julian Quinones looks to be a good bet to find the mesh here. He's scored in two of his five matches for Mexico, including the 3-2 loss to Brazil in the team's final warmup. He's also scored 45 goals in his past two campaigns playing in Liga MX, so he's clearly got a nose for the goal.
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