ATP - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
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by Lou Aguila | in ATP Monte Carlo Masters Picks
The 2025 Monte Carlo men’s singles finals is set! Carlos Alcaraz will go for his first crown in Monaco against the never-say-die Lorenzo Musetti, who is seeking to win his first career ATP 1000 crown on Sunday.
Alcaraz will play in his first ever Monte Carlo Masters final after surviving a scintillating showdown with compatriot Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 7-6(2) 6-4. Once again, the Spaniard displayed his all-around game and athleticism to come away with the most important points in the match. Alcaraz won 31 points off his first serves and broke three times, including a crucial service break in the first game of the second set that turned out to be the difference-maker.
Musetti will also be making his first Monte Carlo Masters final debut on Sunday following a gutsy come-from-behind win over Alex De Minaur of Australia 1-6 6-4 7-6(4). For the fourth time in this tournament, the Italian had to climb back from a set down to win a match. Against De Minaur, Musetti utilized every trick in the playbook to outlast his Aussie foe, who doubled bageled Grigor Dimitrov in the quarterfinals. He won 37 points off his first serves and five breakpoint conversions in a thrilling semifinal affair.
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Lorenzo Musetti vs Carlos Alcaraz Form
Lorenzo Musetti and Carlos Alcaraz Latest Matches
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
Apr 12, 2025 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Apr 11, 2025 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Apr 10, 2025 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Apr 9, 2025 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Apr 7, 2025 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Mar 25, 2025 - ATP Miami
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
Apr 12, 2025 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Apr 11, 2025 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Apr 10, 2025 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Apr 9, 2025 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Mar 21, 2025 - ATP Miami
Mar 15, 2025 - ATP Indian Wells
Lorenzo Musetti against Carlos Alcaraz : Head to Head (H2H)
25 %
75 %
Mar 26, 2024 - ATP Miami
Oct 1, 2023 - ATP Beijing Open
Jun 4, 2023 - ATP French Open
Jul 24, 2022 - ATP Hamburg Open
Lorenzo Musetti - Carlos Alcaraz Key Points
- Carlos Alcaraz defeated Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 7-6(2) 6-4 in the semifinal of the 2025 Monte Carlo Masters.
- Carlos Alcaraz has 81 percent win rate on clay.
- Lorenzo Musetti defeated Alex De Minaur 1-6 6-4 7-6(4) in the semifinal of the 2025 Monte Carlo Masters.
- Lorenzo Musetti trails Carlos Alcaraz 1-4 in their head-to-head series.
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Our Lorenzo Musetti vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction
Prediction: Carlos Alcaraz wins his first Monte Carlo Masters but not before surviving an upset scare from the feisty Lorenzo Musetti in a three-set showpiece.
Alcaraz has shown to everybody why he’s still the top bet to win this year’s French Open. The Spaniard carved his way into the final of the Monte Carlo Masters by relying on his ridiculous shot-making and championship pedigree that keeps shining brighter under pressure. However, Sunday’s men’s singles final promises to bring the biggest test for Alcaraz in this tourney. Lorenzo Musetti arrived in Monaco already with a lofty reputation as a clay court expert. But nobody expected the Italian to play this well in the first ATP 1000 event on clay this year. Musetti rattled off five impressive victories over quality opponents, including four come-from-behind wins. He dethroned Stefanos Tsitsipas in the quarterfinals 1-6 6-3 6-4 before outgunning the streaking De Minaur in another three-set banger. While I still think Alcaraz is an attractive money line bet because of his 76 percent win rate in championship matches, betting Musetti to cover +3.5 games could net you a handsome payout with a +140 value. Our betting prediction for Lorenzo Musetti vs. Carlos Alcaraz: Lorenzo Musetti will cover +3.5 Games.
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