ATP - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
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by Lou Aguila in ATP Mutua Madrid Open Picks
Tommy Paul of the United States will try to book his spot in the round of 16 on Monday when he tangles with Karen Khachanov of Russia in the third round of the 2025 Mutua Madrid Masters.
Paul advanced to the third round after he grinded out a tough 7-6(7) 7-6(3) win over Brazilian wunderkind Joao Fonseca on Saturday. Hot off a semifinal appearance at the 2025 US Men’s Clay Court championships, Paul displayed nerves of steel to outlast Fonseca in arguably the toughest two-set win he had in his career. Paul scored 54 points of his first serves with 9 aces.
Khachanov also gutted out a 7-6 (3) 7-6 (4) win over big-serving Reilly Opelka of the United States in the second round. Khachanov and Opelka held all their serves, but Khachanov delivered the big points in the most crucial junctures of this nail-biting match. Opelka won 91 percent of his first and 68 percent of his second serves.
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Karen Khachanov vs Tommy Paul Form
Karen Khachanov and Tommy Paul Latest Matches
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
Apr 26, 2025 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
Apr 19, 2025 - ATP Barcelona
Apr 18, 2025 - ATP Barcelona
Apr 17, 2025 - ATP Barcelona
Apr 15, 2025 - ATP Barcelona
Apr 7, 2025 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
Apr 26, 2025 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
Apr 5, 2025 - ATP Houston
Apr 4, 2025 - ATP Houston
Apr 2, 2025 - ATP Houston
Mar 23, 2025 - ATP Miami
Mar 21, 2025 - ATP Miami
Karen Khachanov - Tommy Paul Key Points
- Karen Khachanov has a 4-2 record on clay in 2025.
- Tommy Paul defeated Joao Fonseca 7-6(7) 7-6(3) in the the second round of the 2025 Madrid Open.
- Tommy Paul is 3-1 on clay in 2025.
- Karen Khachanov defeated Reilly Opelka 7-6 (3) 7-6 (4) in the second round of the 2025 Madrid Open.
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Our Karen Khachanov vs Tommy Paul Prediction
Fearless Forecast: Karen Khachanov bests Tommy Paul in another tough battle.
Paul already has one head-to-head win over Khachanov, and it came in the second round of the 2022 Miami Open, 6-4 3-6 7-6(3). Khachanov will not be an easy opponent for Paul since the Russian owns a respectable 106-72 record on clay in his career, not to mention that he’s hot off a semifinal stint at the 2025 Barcelona Open. Paul must bring his A-game if he’s determined to get past Khachanov. The American opened as the betting favorite at -145 but I think Khachanov has beaten way better clay-court players (Alejandro Fokina, Jaume Antoni Munar Clar) than Paul had during his run in Houston and here in Madrid, making him sharper and more battle-tested for an all-out war in Monday’s match. Our betting prediction for Tommy Paul vs. Karen Khachanov: Karen Khachanov will win.
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