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Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles Prediction & Picks - NFL
by Dan Angell in NFL Picks
The Philadelphia Eagles (17-3 SU, 13-7 ATS) against the Kansas City Chiefs (17-2 SU, 9-10 ATS), attempting to deny Kansas City its third consecutive Super Bowl title. No team has ever won three consecutive Super Bowls, and no NFL team has won three consecutive titles since the Green Bay Packers did it from 1965 to 1967.
To make history, the Chiefs will need to rely on an accurate passing attack and a solid front seven on defense. Kansas City hasn't been anywhere near as dominant on offense as in past years, but its defense has made sure that hasn't mattered. In its past seven games where the starters played, only Buffalo managed to exceed 20 points against Kansas City's defense. It also doesn't hurt that the Chiefs' biggest strength on defense is against the run. When facing the Eagles and Sqauon Barkley, stopping the run is of the utmost importance.
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Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles Form
Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles Latest Matches
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Kansas City Chiefs against Philadelphia Eagles : Head to Head (H2H)
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Kansas City Chiefs - Philadelphia Eagles: Form Analysis
Kansas City doesn't have anywhere near the running ability of Philadelphia. And that's why this run total for the Chiefs seems a little high. Between Kareem Hunt and Isaiah Pacheco, Kansas City does not have the big play explosiveness that a high rushing total requires. Hunt is only averaging 40 yards over his past 10 games, and Pacheco has averaged just 30 yards per game in that stretch.
The wild card on Kansas City's rushing total is, of course, Patrick Mahomes. But for all of his skills moving the football on the ground, Mahomes really does not run the football very often. He only scrambles when he has to, and his recent results reflect that. Over the course of his final five regular season games, he only ran for more than 20 yards one time. He went for 43 rushing yards against Buffalo, but the Bills have always played Mahomes a little differently than the rest of the NFL.
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Kansas City Chiefs & Philadelphia Eagles Squad Analysis
There's also the Philadelphia defense to consider. The Eagles have built themselves into the best defense in the NFL, and they defend the run and the pass equally well. Philadelphia mostly focuses on limiting the big play, which will likely translate to short, safe passes from Mahomes to his running backs and Travis Kelce. It will not translate into carries for Hunt and Pacheco, because the Chiefs' offensive line is having plenty of problems opening holes. On most plays, Kansas City is lucky to get more than two yards after contact, and contact happens pretty early when facing Philadelphia.
There's one more thing to consider: if Kansas City is trying to run out the clock, kneel downs from Mahomes can hurt the Chiefs' rushing total. Each kneel counts as a two-yard loss, which can be critical. Our prediction is Chiefs team total Under 114.5 rushing yards.
Kansas City Chiefs - Philadelphia Eagles Key Points
- The Chiefs are 4-6 ATS in their past 10 games.
- The Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their past eight games.
- The Eagles have held nine of 10 opponents to 23 points or less.
- The Chiefs have held six of eight opponents under 20 points.
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Our Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles Prediction
For all of their success, the Chiefs have always felt more fortunate than dominant this season. Kansas City has been far stronger with its previous Super Bowl champion teams, and this one doesn't seem to have the firepower to respond against a team like the Eagles.
Unlike most teams Kansas City has faced, Philadelphia has the ability to hit an opponent in the mouth and take control of the game from there. The Eagles are slow starters because of the need to develop the ground game, but once they get Barkley established, it's very difficult keeping pace with them for the rest of the contest. They also have the defense to match Kansas City play for play, and they've now been here before after losing to the Chiefs two years ago. That should make a difference in the rematch. Our prediction for Kansas City vs. Philadelphia is Eagles +1.5.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles - Other Interesting Picks
Both Teams to Lead in the Second Half
There's a good argument to be made for taking the Chiefs to come from behind and win, given that Kansas City has done it in both of its past two Super Bowls. But there's a better play that gives you insurance against an Eagles victory: backing both teams to have the lead at some point in the second half.
With how even these teams appear to be (as seen by the small spread) and how Kansas City has a habit of digging itself into a hole in the second quarter, it makes sense to expect a back-and-forth second half. It also fits well with the recent trend of tight games in the Super Bowl. Years ago, the Super Bowl was mostly one-way traffic, but as parity has taken over the NFL, the trend has instead become back-and-forth battles that get decided late.
Out of the past eight Super Bowls, only one — Tampa Bay's beatdown of the Chiefs in 2021 — never saw a lead change or tie in the second half. The only other time where this bet wouldn't have cashed was 2019, where the Rams and Patriots tied at 3 after the third quarter, but Los Angeles never got its nose in front before falling 13-3.
If the Eagles do go into halftime with the lead as expected, all you need for this bet to hit is Kansas City to pull ahead at some point. With Patrick Mahomes already making a career out of his last-minute comebacks, getting more money on this possibility seems like a gift. Our prediction is for both teams to hold the lead in the second half.
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Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles match : Frequently asked questions
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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