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Illinois vs UCONN Prediction & Picks - NCAA Basketball
by Dan Angell | in NCAA Basketball Picks
The Illinois Fighting Illini (29-8 SU, 22-13-2 ATS) square off against the Connecticut Huskies (34-3 SU, 25-12 ATS) for a shot at the Final Four. This is the deepest Illinois has been in the tournament in 20 years, while the Huskies are trying to become the first repeat national champion since Florida did it in 2007.
Connecticut has mostly slammed its opponents, but it has shown one key weakness in its stretch of dominance: it is susceptible to teams that know how to do the job on the offensive glass. Illinois can get offensive rebounds quite well and excels at getting in position to stuff them home. The Huskies don't force a lot of turnovers, which might make it difficult for them to slow down the Illini.
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The odds seem to be inflating the Huskies based on their recent performances. Connecticut has dominated everyone it's come across in the NCAA tournament, but the Huskies also haven't played that difficult of a road. San Diego State was probably the weakest No. 5 seed and the first two games were merely a warmup.
Of course, Connecticut earned that road as a No. 1 seed, but the Huskies also didn't face the toughest schedule in the Big East. The league was top-heavy this season, and both Creighton and Marquette got bounced from the tournament in the Sweet 16. Creighton was the last team that actually beat Connecticut, and the Bluejays proved to be the Huskies' toughest competition from a league that only got three bids.
Illinois, by contrast, faced a challenging road. The Fighting Illini played Purdue twice and saw Nebraska and Wisconsin in the Big Ten tournament, which they won for the second time in four years. In their regional semifinal, they met up with Iowa State, which came in with the No. 1 defense in the nation. The Cyclones did hold the Illini under 75 points for the first time in the tournament, but Illinois never appeared in real danger of losing its lead.
The public has seen Connecticut axe its first three opponents with little difficulty and naturally gravitated toward the favorite. That's sent this line a little higher than it should have been, which could open the door for an Illinois cover.
Illinois vs UCONN Form
Illinois and UCONN Latest Matches
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Illinois - UCONN Key Points
- Connecticut has played under in five of its past six games.
- Illinois has not scored less than 64 points this season.
- Connecticut has held eight of its past 10 opponents to 61 points or less.
- Illinois has played over in five of its past six games.
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Our Illinois vs UCONN Prediction
This matchup involves the top two offenses in the nation, making this game more of a contrast of styles. Illinois tends to try to put up a lot of points and overwhelm its foes, while Connecticut takes its time and tries to end every possession with a good look at the hoop.
Both teams excel at interior offense, with both ranking in the top 20 nationally in second-chance points. Illinois' Coleman Hawkins has made himself a force in the paint this season, and how he handles the matchup with Donovan Clingan will decide how this game turns out. If Hawkins can gain the upper hand, the play of Terrence Shannon will likely carry the day for Illinois. Because of the Illini's strong interior game, our prediction for Illinois vs. Connecticut is Illinois +9.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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