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Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction & Picks - NFL
by Travis Pulver | in NFL Picks
The Houston Texans will get the Divisional Round of the playoffs underway when they take on the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO. The action gets underway at 4:30 p.m. ET, and fans can find coverage on ABC/ESPN/ESPN+. The two-time defending Super Bowl champions are heavy favorites to win. Kansas City opened as a 7.5-point favorite, but the line quickly moved out to 8.5-points.
Having gone 15-2 in the regular season, the Chiefs were the No. 1 seed and had the week off. Houston hosted the Los Angeles Chargers over Wild Card Weekend and earned the right to move on to the divisional round and a date with the Chiefs. As could be expected, confidence is high in the Chiefs among bettors to win outright. According to early numbers, 90% of moneyline tickets and 82% of the handle (money) are on the Chiefs.
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Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs Form
Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs Latest Matches
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Houston Texans against Kansas City Chiefs : Head to Head (H2H)
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Houston Texans - Kansas City Chiefs: Form Analysis
Kansas City has not been the explosive, high-scoring offense that fans have come to know and love. But one thing has not changed since the ascension of Patrick Mahomes. No matter how bad the team plays, he finds a way to win in the end. Eleven of the team’s 15 wins this season were by one score. So, if just one play had gone a different way in those games, the narrative surrounding the Chiefs could be drastically different.
The Chiefs are on the verge of making NFL history if they win a third consecutive Super Bowl.
As for the Texans, while they won the division again, the excitement surrounding the team was a little tempered entering the playoffs. Yes, they won ten games, but the AFC South is weak and C.J. Stroud has not played like the guy who won Offensive Rookie of the Year last season. He had one of his better games of the season last week vs. the Chargers, but the defense deserves more credit for the win than he does.
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Houston Texans & Kansas City Chiefs Squad Analysis
Thanks to the bye week, the Chiefs will enter the playoffs relatively healthy. However, the time off could be a detriment to them in the end. Why? Because Kansas City has not played a competitive game since Christmas. With that much time off, some rust is expected. If the Houston defense plays like it did last week vs. the Chargers, they may struggle to knock it off. KC cornerback Jaylen Watson could be in line for a shock return to the starting lineup on Saturday. The third year man has been on Injured Reserve since suffering a fractured fibula in Week 7, but he has returned to practice this week and if he is fit enough to suit up against the Texans it will give KC a huge boost. Other key players such as Chris Jones and Isiah Pacheco have been limited in practice, but are expected to be fully recovered from minor injuries in time for Saturday's game.
Houston, on the other hand, comes into the game down several players due to injuries.
Houston's main injury concern is regarding star running back Joe Mixon, who is listed as questionable due to an ankle injury suffered against LA. WR Robert Woods and TE Dwight Schultz are also injury doubts, however, the outlook appears much more positive for star defensive end Will Anderson, who came through practice unscathed following a hand/elbow knock last weekend. Stefon Diggs saw his first season in Houston end early and Tank Dell was lost to a knee injury just a few weeks ago. Shaq Mason is out, and tight end Cade Stover is out for the remainder of the playoffs after fracturing his collarbone vs. the Chargers. Several players have been listed as ‘questionable’ on injury reports, including wide receiver Robert Woods, offensive lineman Juice Scruggs, and defensive end Denico Autry.
Houston Texans - Kansas City Chiefs Key Points
- Kansas City leads the all-time series vs. Houston 10-5, including two postseason wins.
- These two teams last played in Week 16, a game the Chiefs won 27-19, extending their win streak over the Texans to four games.
- Houston got out to a 24-0 lead over the Chiefs in the 2019-20 Divisional Round, only to squander the lead and lose 51-31.
- The Buffalo Bills are the only playoff team the Texans beat during the regular season; 0-5 otherwise.
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Our Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction
Kansas City should absolutely win this game—if the defense can keep the Texans offense in check long enough for the offense to knock the rust off. If the Houston defense can play with the same intensity as it did last week, Joe Mixon can get on track early, and C.J. Stroud does not turn the ball over, Houston will not only keep this one close, but they could pull off an epic upset. Kansas City went 5-0 SU and 0-5 ATS in five games where they were favored by 7+ points. While Houston might win, taking the points is a better bet.
Our Texans vs. Chiefs Pick: Houston +8.5
Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs - Other Interesting Picks
Joe Mixon, OVER 57.5 Rushing Yards
KC Win and Under 41.5 Points
The Kansas City juggernaut is showing no signs of stopping and it is hard to see the Texans having enough quality to stop their bid for an unprecedented three Super Bowls on the spin. That being said, Houston's defense was fantastic against the Chargers and we do think they can hold their own against the star-studded KC offense. However, there is no way we are betting against Patrick Mahomes and co, so are backing the Chiefs to prevail in a low-scoring encounter.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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