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Holger Rune vs Daniil Medvedev Prediction & Picks - ATP Indian Wells
by Lou Aguila | in ATP Indian Wells Picks
Holger Rune of Denmark battles Daniil Medvedev of Russia for a place in the final of the 2025 Indian Wells Open on Saturday.
This year, Rune reached his first semifinal stint after besting Tallon Griekspoor 5-7 6-0 6-3 in the quarterfinals. Rune completed a comeback win from a 0-1 set deficit by capturing four of his six breakpoints in the second and third sets while holding all his remaining serves after he was broken three times in the opening set. Rune reached the semifinal stage of an ATP 1000 tournament for the sixth time in his career.
Medvedev also booked his third straight semifinal appearance at Indian Wells after escaping with a 6-4 2-6 7-6(7) victory over Arthur Fils of France. The Russian rallied from a 2-4 deficit in the third set behind a series of clutch shots and some costly errors down the stretch by the 20-year-old Fils. With the victory, Medvedev reached the semifinal for the second time this year after also making in the final four of the Open 13 tournament in Marseille in February.
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Holger Rune vs Daniil Medvedev Form
Holger Rune and Daniil Medvedev Latest Matches
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
Mar 13, 2025 - ATP Indian Wells
Mar 11, 2025 - ATP Indian Wells
Mar 9, 2025 - ATP Indian Wells
Mar 7, 2025 - ATP Indian Wells
Feb 26, 2025 - ATP Acapulco Open
Feb 25, 2025 - ATP Acapulco Open
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
Mar 13, 2025 - ATP Indian Wells
Mar 12, 2025 - ATP Indian Wells
Mar 9, 2025 - ATP Indian Wells
Mar 7, 2025 - ATP Indian Wells
Feb 27, 2025 - ATP Dubai Open
Feb 26, 2025 - ATP Dubai Open
Holger Rune against Daniil Medvedev : Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
67 %
Mar 14, 2024 - ATP Indian Wells
May 21, 2023 - ATP Italian Open
Apr 14, 2023 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Holger Rune - Daniil Medvedev: Form Analysis
Holger Rune has held 82 percent of his serves, having been broken only 9 times out of 49. He topped Corentin Moutet 6-2 6-4, Ugo Humbert 5-7 6-4 7-5, Stefanos Tsitsipas 6-4 6-4 and Tallon Griekspoor to reach his third semis in the last four ATP 1000 events.
Medvedev has held 78 percent of his serves and earned 15 breakpoint conversions after four matches in this tournament.
He had not dropped a single set against Bu Yunchaokete 6-2 6-2, Alex Michelsen 2-0 ret., Tommy Paul 6-4 6-0 until he faced Arthur Fils, who took the second set in their three-set quarterfinal showdown on Friday.
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Holger Rune & Daniil Medvedev Squad Analysis
Ranked No.13 in the world, Holger Rune is in the midst of his longest winning streak this season at four games. Surprisingly, Rune is only 10-6 in 2025. After reaching the fourth round of the Australian Open, the Dane’s performance dipped in the next three tournaments, absorbing early-round exits in Rotterdam, Buenos Aires and Acapulco.
Medvedev also didn’t have the kind of start he wanted for his 2025 campaign
He stumbled out of the gates at the Australian Open, losing to American rising star Learner Tien in the second round. The Russian had also had so-so results in tournaments that preceded, failing to reach the final in Rotterdam, Qatar and Dubai before regaining his form to rack up four wins in a row at Indian Wells.
Holger Rune - Daniil Medvedev Key Points
- Holger Rune defeated Tallon Griekspoor 5-7 6-0 6-3 in the quarterfinals of the 2025 Indian Wells Open.
- Holger Rune is 10-6 in the 2025 ATP season.
- Daniil Medvedev defeated Arthur Fils 6-4 2-6 7-6(7) in the quarterfinals of the 2025 Indian Wells Open.
- Daniil Medvedev has reached the final of the Indian Wells Open in the last two years.
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Our Holger Rune vs Daniil Medvedev Prediction
Holger Rune vs Daniil Medvedev - Other Interesting Picks
Medvedev will win 2-1.
This is projected to be a three-set match. Medvedev and Rune have never played each other in a match that went the distance. But that’s about to change on Saturday when these two proud players put everything on the line for the opportunity to play possibly Carlos Alcaraz for the Indian Wells Open gold. I believe that Rune will come out strong to take the first set before Medvedev taps into his vast reservoir of experience to grind out another come-from-behind victory. Our betting prediction for Daniil Medvedev vs. Holger Rune: Medvedev will win 2-1.
Over 23.5 Games.
And since this will be a three-set showdown, the logical choice is Over 23.5 Games. Rune has a 51-85 record or 60 per cent win rate in three-set hardcourt matches in his career, while Medvedev holds a staggering 194-259 record in hardcourt matches that go the distance. With both players serving terrifically, it’s safe to say we won’t see many service breaks in this match. Our betting prediction for Daniil Medvedev vs. Holger Rune: Over 23.5 Games.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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