ATP - ATP Indian Wells

ATP 13 Denmark
Holger Rune
3/15/25 16:30
ATP 6 Russia
Daniil Medvedev

Prediction:

 

Daniil Medvedev will win

-190
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Holger Rune vs Daniil Medvedev Prediction & Picks - ATP Indian Wells

 by Lou Aguila | in ATP Indian Wells Picks

Holger Rune of Denmark battles Daniil Medvedev of Russia for a place in the final of the 2025 Indian Wells Open on Saturday.

This year, Rune reached his first semifinal stint after besting Tallon Griekspoor 5-7 6-0 6-3 in the quarterfinals. Rune completed a comeback win from a 0-1 set deficit by capturing four of his six breakpoints in the second and third sets while holding all his remaining serves after he was broken three times in the opening set. Rune reached the semifinal stage of an ATP 1000 tournament for the sixth time in his career.

Medvedev also booked his third straight semifinal appearance at Indian Wells after escaping with a 6-4 2-6 7-6(7) victory over Arthur Fils of France. The Russian rallied from a 2-4 deficit in the third set behind a series of clutch shots and some costly errors down the stretch by the 20-year-old Fils. With the victory, Medvedev reached the semifinal for the second time this year after also making in the final four of the Open 13 tournament in Marseille in February.

Holger Rune vs Daniil Medvedev Form

Holger Rune and Daniil Medvedev Latest Matches

Holger Rune Latest matches
W L W W W W
Victories

5/6 (83%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Mar 13, 2025 - ATP Indian Wells

Tallon Griekspoor
1 :  2
Holger Rune

Mar 11, 2025 - ATP Indian Wells

Holger Rune
2 :  0
Stefanos Tsitsipas

Mar 9, 2025 - ATP Indian Wells

Holger Rune
2 :  1
Ugo Humbert

Mar 7, 2025 - ATP Indian Wells

Holger Rune
2 :  0
Corentin Moutet

Feb 26, 2025 - ATP Acapulco Open

Holger Rune
abort
Brandon Nakashima

Feb 25, 2025 - ATP Acapulco Open

Holger Rune
2 :  0
Roberto Carballes Baena
Daniil Medvedev Latest matches
W L W W W W
Victories

5/6 (83%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Mar 13, 2025 - ATP Indian Wells

Arthur Fils
1 :  2
Daniil Medvedev

Mar 12, 2025 - ATP Indian Wells

Tommy Paul
0 :  2
Daniil Medvedev

Mar 9, 2025 - ATP Indian Wells

Alex Michelsen
abort
Daniil Medvedev

Mar 7, 2025 - ATP Indian Wells

Yunchaokete Bu
0 :  2
Daniil Medvedev

Feb 27, 2025 - ATP Dubai Open

Daniil Medvedev
1 :  2
Tallon Griekspoor

Feb 26, 2025 - ATP Dubai Open

Daniil Medvedev
2 :  0
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Holger Rune against Daniil Medvedev : Head to Head (H2H)

Holger Rune

33 %

Daniil Medvedev

67 %

Mar 14, 2024 - ATP Indian Wells

Daniil Medvedev
2 :  0
Holger Rune

May 21, 2023 - ATP Italian Open

Holger Rune
0 :  2
Daniil Medvedev

Apr 14, 2023 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters

Daniil Medvedev
0 :  2
Holger Rune
Compare Holger Rune and Daniil Medvedev with our comparison tool.

Holger Rune - Daniil Medvedev: Form Analysis

Holger Rune has held 82 percent of his serves, having been broken only 9 times out of 49. He topped Corentin Moutet 6-2 6-4, Ugo Humbert 5-7 6-4 7-5, Stefanos Tsitsipas 6-4 6-4 and Tallon Griekspoor to reach his third semis in the last four ATP 1000 events.

Medvedev has held 78 percent of his serves and earned 15 breakpoint conversions after four matches in this tournament.

He had not dropped a single set against Bu Yunchaokete 6-2 6-2, Alex Michelsen 2-0 ret., Tommy Paul 6-4 6-0 until he faced Arthur Fils, who took the second set in their three-set quarterfinal showdown on Friday.

Holger Rune & Daniil Medvedev Squad Analysis

Ranked No.13 in the world, Holger Rune is in the midst of his longest winning streak this season at four games. Surprisingly, Rune is only 10-6 in 2025. After reaching the fourth round of the Australian Open, the Dane’s performance dipped in the next three tournaments, absorbing early-round exits in Rotterdam, Buenos Aires and Acapulco.

Medvedev also didn’t have the kind of start he wanted for his 2025 campaign

He stumbled out of the gates at the Australian Open, losing to American rising star Learner Tien in the second round. The Russian had also had so-so results in tournaments that preceded, failing to reach the final in Rotterdam, Qatar and Dubai before regaining his form to rack up four wins in a row at Indian Wells.

Holger Rune - Daniil Medvedev Key Points

  1. Holger Rune defeated Tallon Griekspoor 5-7 6-0 6-3 in the quarterfinals of the 2025 Indian Wells Open.
  2. Holger Rune is 10-6 in the 2025 ATP season.
  3. Daniil Medvedev defeated Arthur Fils 6-4 2-6 7-6(7) in the quarterfinals of the 2025 Indian Wells Open.
  4. Daniil Medvedev has reached the final of the Indian Wells Open in the last two years.

Our Holger Rune vs Daniil Medvedev Prediction

My money is on Medvedev to beat Rune and reach the Indian Wells final for a third straight year. If not for Carlos Alcaraz, Medvedev would have been the one gunning for a third straight Indian Wells Open. The Russian has had a slow start this season, and yet, despite an underwhelming campaign so far, he’s a solid 12-5 through March. Rune, who lost to Medvedev in the last two of three head-to-head matches, including a quarterfinal defeat in the same tournament last year, will do everything he can to get even with the Russian. However, I believe that Medvedev’s vast experience at this stage (46-32 in career semifinal matches) gives him a significant advantage in his latest showdown with Rune. Our betting prediction for Daniil Medvedev vs. Holger Rune: Daniil Medvedev will win

Prediction:

 

Daniil Medvedev will win

-190
$150 offered for betting!

Holger Rune vs Daniil Medvedev - Other Interesting Picks

Medvedev will win 2-1.

Odds +310

This is projected to be a three-set match. Medvedev and Rune have never played each other in a match that went the distance. But that’s about to change on Saturday when these two proud players put everything on the line for the opportunity to play possibly Carlos Alcaraz for the Indian Wells Open gold. I believe that Rune will come out strong to take the first set before Medvedev taps into his vast reservoir of experience to grind out another come-from-behind victory. Our betting prediction for Daniil Medvedev vs. Holger Rune: Medvedev will win 2-1.

$1500 offered for betting!

Over 23.5 Games.

Odds +110

And since this will be a three-set showdown, the logical choice is Over 23.5 Games. Rune has a 51-85 record or 60 per cent win rate in three-set hardcourt matches in his career, while Medvedev holds a staggering 194-259 record in hardcourt matches that go the distance. With both players serving terrifically, it’s safe to say we won’t see many service breaks in this match. Our betting prediction for Daniil Medvedev vs. Holger Rune: Over 23.5 Games.

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Holger Rune vs Daniil Medvedev Picks