Germany vs Italy Prediction & Picks - UEFA Nations League

Europe - UEFA Nations League

Germany
3/23/25 15:45
Italy

Prediction:

 

Nadiem Amiri Over 0.5 Shots on Target

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 by Bradley Gibbs in Soccer Picks

One of Sunday's bigger UEFA Nations League fixtures sees the Germans and the Italians lock horns for the second time in less than a week. Following Germany's 1-2 win in Milan on Thursday evening, the pair will now meet at Signal Iduna Park in the city of Dortmund. 

When the Italians took an early lead through Newcastle's Sandro Tonali in the first leg, they may have thought they were on their way to booking their place in the semi-finals, but the Germans fought back in the second half, levelling through Tim Kleindienst, before Leon Goretzka netted the winner with a quarter of an hour to go. Having ground out the win on the road, the German will be looking to complete the job at home, and as they can take a more level-headed and cautious approach in front of a home crowd, they're well positioned to bide their time, before picking the Italians off on the break. 

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Germany vs Italy Form

Germany and Italy Latest Matches

Germany
Germany Latest matches
D W W W D W
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Defeats

0/6 (0%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.33 Total goals
67% BTTS
2.5 Goals scored
0.83 Goals conceded
67% Over 2.5
33% Under 2.5

Mar 20, 2025 - UEFA Nations League

Italy
1 :  2
Germany

Nov 19, 2024 - UEFA Nations League

Hungary
1 :  1
Germany

Nov 16, 2024 - UEFA Nations League

Germany
7 :  0
Bosnia Herzegovina

Oct 14, 2024 - UEFA Nations League

Germany
1 :  0
Netherlands

Oct 11, 2024 - UEFA Nations League

Bosnia Herzegovina
1 :  2
Germany

Sep 10, 2024 - UEFA Nations League

Netherlands
2 :  2
Germany
W W W W W W
Victories

6/6 (100%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

0/6 (0%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.83 Total goals
17% BTTS
3.67 Goals scored
0.17 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

Nov 16, 2024 - UEFA Nations League

Germany
7 :  0
Bosnia Herzegovina

Oct 14, 2024 - UEFA Nations League

Germany
1 :  0
Netherlands

Sep 7, 2024 - UEFA Nations League

Germany
5 :  0
Hungary

Jun 29, 2024 - Euro

Germany
2 :  0
Denmark

Jun 19, 2024 - Euro

Germany
2 :  0
Hungary

Jun 14, 2024 - Euro

Germany
5 :  1
Scotland
D L D W D W
Victories

2/6 (33%)

Draw

3/6 (50%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.83 Total goals
100% BTTS
1.5 Goals scored
1.33 Goals conceded
67% Over 2.5
33% Under 2.5

Mar 20, 2025 - UEFA Nations League

Italy
1 :  2
Germany

Nov 19, 2024 - UEFA Nations League

Hungary
1 :  1
Germany

Oct 11, 2024 - UEFA Nations League

Bosnia Herzegovina
1 :  2
Germany

Sep 10, 2024 - UEFA Nations League

Netherlands
2 :  2
Germany

Jul 5, 2024 - Euro

Spain
2 :  1
Germany

Jun 23, 2024 - Euro

Switzerland
1 :  1
Germany
Italy
Italy Latest matches
W D W W L L
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.33 Total goals
83% BTTS
1.83 Goals scored
1.5 Goals conceded
83% Over 2.5
17% Under 2.5

Mar 20, 2025 - UEFA Nations League

Italy
1 :  2
Germany

Nov 17, 2024 - UEFA Nations League

Italy
1 :  3
France

Nov 14, 2024 - UEFA Nations League

Belgium
0 :  1
Italy

Oct 14, 2024 - UEFA Nations League

Italy
4 :  1
Israel

Oct 10, 2024 - UEFA Nations League

Italy
2 :  2
Belgium

Sep 9, 2024 - UEFA Nations League

Israel
1 :  2
Italy
W W D W L L
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.33 Total goals
83% BTTS
1.83 Goals scored
1.5 Goals conceded
83% Over 2.5
17% Under 2.5

Mar 20, 2025 - UEFA Nations League

Italy
1 :  2
Germany

Nov 17, 2024 - UEFA Nations League

Italy
1 :  3
France

Oct 14, 2024 - UEFA Nations League

Italy
4 :  1
Israel

Oct 10, 2024 - UEFA Nations League

Italy
2 :  2
Belgium

Jun 15, 2024 - Euro

Italy
2 :  1
Albania

Jun 9, 2024 - International Friendlies

Italy
1 :  0
Bosnia Herzegovina
L D L W W W
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.17 Total goals
50% BTTS
1.17 Goals scored
1 Goals conceded
33% Over 2.5
67% Under 2.5

Nov 14, 2024 - UEFA Nations League

Belgium
0 :  1
Italy

Sep 9, 2024 - UEFA Nations League

Israel
1 :  2
Italy

Sep 6, 2024 - UEFA Nations League

France
1 :  3
Italy

Jun 29, 2024 - Euro

Switzerland
2 :  0
Italy

Jun 24, 2024 - Euro

Croatia
1 :  1
Italy

Jun 20, 2024 - Euro

Spain
1 :  0
Italy

Germany against Italy : Head to Head (H2H)

Germany

50 %

Draw

50 %

Italy

0 %

Average stats (last H2H results)

3
Total goals
75%
BTTS
2
Goals scored (Team 1)
1
Goals scored (Team 2)
50%
Over 2.5
50%
Under 2.5

Mar 20, 2025 - UEFA Nations League

Italy
1 :  2
Germany

Jun 14, 2022 - UEFA Nations League

Germany
5 :  2
Italy

Jun 4, 2022 - UEFA Nations League

Italy
1 :  1
Germany

Nov 15, 2016 - International Friendlies

Italy
0 :  0
Germany

Italy v Germany last Lineups

Germany

Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1

1
O. Baumann
6
J. Kimmich
4
J. Tah
2
A. Rudiger
22
D. Raum
5
P. Gross
8
L. Goretzka
19
L. Sane
10
J. Musiala
11
N. Amiri
7
J. Burkardt
10
G. Raspadori
9
M. Kean
19
D. Udogie
8
S. Tonali
14
N. Rovella
18
N. Barella
7
M. Politano
5
R. Calafiori
21
A. Bastoni
22
G. Di Lorenzo
1
G. Donnarumma

Formation : 3 - 5 - 2

Italy

Most goals and assists

CD Huachipato Germany
CD Huachipato Italy
Top Goalscorer
Germany F. Wirtz (3 Goals)
Germany D. Undav (3 Goals)
Germany T. Kleindienst (3 Goals)
Top Goalscorer
Italy D. Frattesi (3 Goals)
Best assists
Germany J. Musiala (3 Assists)
Germany F. Wirtz (3 Assists)
Germany J. Kimmich (3 Assists)
Best assists
Italy F. Dimarco (4 Assists)

Germany and Italy Stats in UEFA Nations League

Germany
Germany
Italy
Italy
71%
Victories
57%
29%
Draw
14%
0%
Defeats
29%
3.57
Total goals per match
3.43
2.86
Goals scored per match
2
0.71
Goals conceded per match
1.43
71%
Over 2.5
86%
29%
Under 2.5
14%
57%
BTTS
86%
43%
No goals conceded
14%

Germany - Italy Key Points

  1. Nadiem Amiri has come into the Germany squad after some fine performances for Mainz of late.
  2. In his last five matches for club and country Nadiem Amiri has taken nine shots.
  3. Nadiem Amiri has registered a shot on target in four of his last seven starts for club and country.
  4. Nadiem Amiri is likely to be very hungry to score his first senior goal for Germany, prompting him to shoot.
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Our Germany vs Italy Prediction

Nadiem Amiri started the first leg and delivered an encouraging performance before being subbed midway through the second half. He's come into the squad lately having been one of the Bundesliga's best players in 2025, so don't be surprised if he starts the second leg. We also shouldn't be surprised if the midfielder registers a shot on target as he searches for his first senior goal for his nation. Amiri has been firing off plenty of shots in general in recent weeks, while he's no stranger to getting forward and testing keepers. Our Germany vs Italy Pick: Nadiem Amiri Over 0.5 Shots on Target. 

Prediction:

 

Nadiem Amiri Over 0.5 Shots on Target

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Germany vs Italy Picks
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