NCAA Football Picks & Predictions

In this guide, we’ll discuss some critical information and strategy so that you can make the most informed decisions and give yourself the most value on the 2024/25 college football season.

NCAA Football Season Picks and Betting Tips

This has already been a college football season like no other, and it’s going to continue to be that way. For the 2024-25 college football season, the playoff has been expanded to 12 teams, which means that every power conference as well as the best Group of 5 champion will have a spot in the main tournament.

The injustice that happened to Florida State last season, when the Seminoles finished the year undefeated but didn’t get a shot at the championship, won’t be possible this season. Nothing’s going to save the Seminoles this year after a slow start, but if a team does get through the year unscathed, it can rest assured that it will be in the playoffs.

And that means there are a lot of new bets to make and a lot of strategies to consider when it comes to how to approach your NCAA football betting strategy. No longer can you simply take a team that’s riding high and figure that it’s going to have to win two games in the playoff and call it a day. It now takes a minimum of three victories for a conference champion and four for a team that doesn’t win its league.

Place your NCAAF bets at FanDuel

National Championship Prediction: Who will win the 2024-25 College Football Playoff?

• Our prediction for the National Championship is: Texas Longhorns champion. And we tell you why in this paragraph.

There are multiple schools of thought here. Is it better to get toughened up by the meat grinder that is the SEC, as will happen with the likes of Georgia, Alabama and Tennessee? Or is it better to face a couple tough tests here and there, while getting a few lesser games thrown in to give players time to recover, like Kansas State? 

The truth is that nobody knows what the College Football Playoff’s new format will do to teams or how strategy might be affected. Nobody has ever had to win more than two playoff games to win the title, so nobody knows what the best way to handle multiple weeks of preparation might be. Strategies will begin to take shape next year, but for now, this is just a guessing game.

So the best way to approach this is to look at the teams and what they bring to the table. A good place to start is the teams who are currently in the top 10 nationally. College football is a sport where it’s very difficult to change public perception. Perception won’t matter as much with the expanded playoff now granting four automatic bids, but it takes a lot of wins to change the thinking about a team that wasn’t expected to be good.

That’s one reason why only six of the past 36 national champions didn’t start the year in the top 10 nationally that season. When it comes to expectations, the voters have a pretty good track record.

Texas started the season in the top spot and the Longhorns have every piece of the puzzle needed to make the national title game. They are the rare team that has two legitimate quarterbacks, which could cause an issue down the line. But as long as they can manage playing time between Quinn Ewers and Arch Manning successfully, they have to be considered one of the favorites.

Georgia is another top contender, given that the Bulldogs won two of the past three national championships. However, the Bulldogs’ odds just aren’t very good because of their history and their large fan base. It’s always a good idea to avoid teams with larger fan bases if possible, because those teams are going to draw a lot of money from futures bettors. In most cases, you want to bet with the money, but when futures are involved, the money isn’t always the best choice because of fans wanting to cash in if their team wins it all.

An interesting exception to this phenomenon is Alabama. Though the Crimson Tide have a large fan base, they also have to play both Georgia and Tennessee in the regular season. The prospect of Alabama losing one or both of those games has increased the odds on the Crimson Tide to an unusual amount.

• Our pick for the 2024 National Championship is: Oregon

NCAAF Title Odds: Who are the favorites?

Odds provided by the FanDuel website

National Championship Contenders: Who are the top NCAAF teams this year?

Once you get past the favorites, it’s important to think strategically. One team that’s getting virtually no attention is Kansas State, despite the Wildcats’ excellent start to the season. The expanded Big 12 looked like it had several good teams but no great one, although K-State might be forcing a re-assessment of that after clubbing Arizona in what was technically a non-conference game. The Wildcats’ remaining schedule lines up very well for them, and a team that gains confidence can become dangerous. Getting odds around +6000 for a team that looks like its league’s best team is an interesting lottery ticket.

USC could also be an interesting option. The Trojans still have to navigate the uncertainty of being a West Coast team in the Big Ten, but they have played well so far and won’t face Ohio State or Oregon. A lot would need to go right, but SC appears to have the right combination to be in the mix this year in Lincoln Riley’s third season.

National Championship: Odds on the Favorites to Win it all

Regardless of who you take to win the national title, be sure to shop around and find the best lines for your play. It’s always a good practice to shop around for the best possible lines for any bet, whether it’s for a season-long play or a single-game wager.

Place your NCAAF bets at FanDuel

Making the College Football Playoff

For the College Football Playoff, you only need to consider how likely a team is to make the playoff. The best way to do this is to group teams into two groups. In the first group, you should have the strongest teams that would likely make the playoff without winning their conference. The top seven teams who did not win a conference title are eligible for at-large bids. 

This is where you can put a second or third team from the SEC or Big Ten on your bet slip. However, be warned: since a team doesn’t have to win its conference to qualify, you’ll get much lower odds.

The second group is teams that aren’t getting in without winning their conference. This group will mostly be teams from the ACC or Big 12, plus the occasional Group of 5 team. For this group, you should consider odds carefully and ask if they have any real shot at qualifying without winning the league. If they don’t, you can get a better price by taking them to win their conference. It’s the same outcome in the end, but it pays higher.

Place your NCAAF bets at FanDuel

How to Bet on College Football

Before you start betting on college football, you need to know what the rules look like in your state. In some states, there are limitations on college sports that do not exist in professional sports. 

Some states, for example, don’t allow prop betting on college sports at all. If you want to bet on any props beyond quarter and half betting or team total points, you can’t. Other states will let you bet on props, but won’t offer any action on any game played by a team from that state. For example, if you’re in Virginia, you can never bet on games involving Virginia, Virginia Tech, James Madison, Liberty or Old Dominion unless you visit a neighboring state and place your bet there. 

Otherwise, you should find all the bets you’d expect from a standard American football game, with spreads, totals and moneylines the most common. Bowl bids and College Football Playoff spots will be handed out after the first Saturday in December, so you can cash some of your futures bets then.

Place your NCAAF bets at DraftKings

Popular College Football Bets

There are several different ways to make predictions for the college football season. These will mostly break down into two areas:

• Single-game betting 
• Season-long betting, also known as futures betting

Single-game bets are exactly what they sound like, making a bet on any one game. When the game ends, you’ve either won or lost based on your prediction, and you’ll collect any winnings accordingly. 

Futures betting can be tough on the average bettor because it requires you to tie up your bankroll for several months at a time. If you want to get a bet in on who’s going to win the national championship, for example, you’re going to have to wait until mid-January before you even get a chance to collect winnings from your bet. And to collect, your team will have to survive the season, get picked to be in the playoff and win the requisite games to claim the crown.

That’s why futures bets are so lucrative when you hit one: they require you to put up cash right away and then wait out any potential land mines. Singles bets simply end once the game is over, so if you’re not feeling so great about a certain team after seeing them in action, you can bet against them the next week with no worries.

But the lure of the big win is always going to draw in casual bettors. After all, you can usually turn $10 into $50-100 or more simply by rooting for your favorite team if this is their season. Most college football fans would gladly sign up for that, which leads to a key strategy when deciding who to bet and who to fade.

Place your NCAAF bets at Caesars

College Football Betting Tips for Beginner Bettors

If you’re just getting started with college football betting this season, it’s understandable if this feels overwhelming. There’s a lot of information here, and the games come on the schedule quickly. When Saturday rolls around, there’s a window of about 10 hours where every major network is showing football of some kind. So it’s a good idea to simplify things and figure out the best ways to approach each game. Here are our top 5 tips for college football betting:

• Stick to Teams You Know
• Know the Critical Numbers
• Don’t Chase Losses
• Consider Rivalry Games Carefully
• Consider the Coaches

Place your NCAAF bets at DraftKings

Tip #1: Stick to Teams You Know

College football doesn’t have quite as many teams as college basketball, as only 134 teams play college football at the FBS level. So it’s a little easier to get to know teams, especially as there’s only ever one game per week per team. But there’s still a lot of information out there, and you’ll have a much easier time if you bet on teams you watch on a regular basis.

Tip #2: Know the Critical Numbers

In the era of analytics and next-gen stats, the critical numbers are becoming less critical than they once were, because coaches now might go for a 2-point conversion at earlier points in the game. But with the way points are scored in football, 3, 6 and 7 are crucial numbers in terms of the spread. For the total, multiples of seven are crucial to navigate properly.

This is why you’ll often see spreads of 3.5 in close games: the book is trying to cover itself by adding the half-point hook to the favorite’s expected margin of victory. If they win on a last-second field goal, they win by three and the book makes money on the cover. Make sure to pay attention and get on the right side of the hook if possible.

Place your NCAAF bets at DraftKings

Tip #3: Don’t Chase Losses

There’s a running gag in the sports betting community that when Hawai’i plays at home, it’s your last chance to make up for any losses you had that week. (Hawai’i home games usually kick off around 11 p.m. to midnight eastern, as the islands are either five or six hours behind Eastern time). But this is a really bad strategy, because when you’ve had a tough day, you’re more likely to bet with emotion. You should always bet strategically, not emotionally. Wait to make a bet until you’ve had a chance to approach it with a clear head.

Tip #4: Consider Rivalry Games Carefully

Rivalries are a huge part of college sports, and the emotions are naturally much higher when a rivalry game is involved. If the teams play for a traveling trophy or if it’s a traditional rivalry like Michigan vs. Ohio State, there’s going to be a lot of emotion involved on both sides. This can lead to surprising outcomes, so be careful.

Tip #5: Consider the Coaches

A good coach can win a game or two for their team each season by making smart play calls and using timeouts effectively. A bad coach tends to lose a game or two with undisciplined play from their team. When a team commits a lot of penalties, that’s a sign that it’s poorly coached.

Place your NCAAF bets at DraftKings

What not to do for College Football Predictions

College football betting is difficult, and it’s inevitable that you’re going to lose a few bets here and there. The best thing you can do is reduce your risk by studying your bets and making intelligent plays. And the best way to do that is to avoid making easily avoidable errors. 

Remember, sportsbooks study each game carefully before setting a line. They usually don’t make mistakes, and their line is set where it is for a reason. So you want to make sure you don’t rush your bets. Here are a few mistakes to avoid:

• Ignore the injury report: No sport has more injuries than football, and no sport can be impacted faster by injury than football. Be sure that you know who’s going to be playing, especially at the skill positions. Remember, no position in football means more than quarterback.
• Forget about location: Knowing where the game is being played is part of the equation. 100,000 people can be intimidating for a visiting team, and a fired-up home crowd can spur an underdog to victory. Tread carefully with road favorites.
• Blindly bet favorites: Favorites are not a sure thing, even on the moneyline. When you make a play on the favorite, you’re doing so at a steeper price to cover the higher probability of their victory. But upsets happen in college sports, and backing a favorite for no reason other than probability isn’t a good strategy.
• Betting teams you don’t know: When you don’t know how teams play, it’s difficult to make an informed wager on or against them. Don’t rush into a game just because it’s on television.
• Playing too many parlays: Parlay bets are difficult to win. Don’t try to play them too often, and when you do, don’t put too many legs in a parlay.
• Not comparing odds: Make sure to compare different sportsbooks to each other to get the best price. A half-point on the spread or a line of -105 instead of -110 might seem small, but they add up over time.

Place your NCAAF bets with BetMGM

Stats and facts to Consider for NCAAF Predictions

Studying stats from the previous season can give you some insights into betting trends that might end up paying big. Here are some key stats from the 2023 season, use them to your advantage: 

• The Iowa Hawkeyes led the FBS in allowing the fewest yards per play, giving up just 4.18 yards per play in 2023.
• The Michigan Wolverines generated 24 turnovers, leading to a 15.8% turnover percentage.
• Georgia had one of the strongest records ATS among the seeded teams in 2023.
•  New Mexico allowed the most rushing yards per play, at an alarming 7.39 yards per rush.
•  LSU Tigers, led by Jayden Daniels, averaged 7.5 yards per play, the best in the nation for 2023.
• San Diego State had the fewest rushing yards per game, averaging just 88.5 rushing yards per game.
• LSU was the highest-scoring team in the FBS, with 45.2 points per game.
• Washington Huskies had the most passing yards per game, with an average of 374.5 yards per game.
• Penn State had the most sacks last season with 47 sacks.
• Air Force had the most rushing touchdowns among any team with 46 in 2023.

Place your NCAAF bets at Caesars

Conclusion: How to Get Your College Football Predictions Right

Knowing your information and sticking to your process will lead you to success more often than not. Remember, the season is a marathon, not a sprint, and there will always be chances to make up for a bad bet. If you lose a tough bet on Saturday night, there will be another game on Thursday to make it up after you can clear your mind. In some parts of the season, you’ll even have that option on Tuesdays. 

If you’re trying to find information, we’ve got everything you’ll need here. Our sports experts provide free picks for most college football games every week, based on analytics, key statistics and their own analysis of what’s happening each week. You can trust you’re getting the same information they use themselves, and you can use it to find the play you want. 

Once you take a look at the information we have available to you, you’ll be ready to scan the sportsbooks for a wager that looks good to you and take advantage of what you know about the matchup.

Our current NCAAF Picks

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