UFC Picks & Predictions
UFC Format and Predictions
With roots dating back to 1980's in the USA, MMA has rapidly become a sport followed by many fans across the country. With its ever-growing number of licensees, this combat sport is taking up more and more space in the media, with venues filling up in the blink of an eye as soon as an event is organized, but also in sports predictions, where sportsbooks have seized the opportunity presented by MMA. With 8 men's and 3 women's categories, UFC figth nights are not lacking in interest, with around ten fights on each weekend throughout the year.
Divided into two parts - the secondary card and the main card - UFC evenings build in intensity with each fight, culminating in the most eagerly-awaited event of the evening, the main-event, which features the most important fight of the evening in the octagon. As you've guessed, every UFC night has its shocks, its rising stars and its twists and turns!
Every weekend, you'll find free UFC tips from the MMA experts at SportyTrader so that you can put all the odds on your side with a selection of the best UFC bets offered by sportsbooks. Don't hesitate to follow our MMA predictions!
Beginner Bettors - How does UFC work?
The Ultimate Fighting Championship, more commonly known as the UFC, is the most recognized mixed martial arts (MMA) organization on the planet. The UFC comprises almost 2,800 official fighters (around 2,500 men and 300 women) divided into a total of 11 categories: 8 for men (flyweight, roosterweight, featherweight, light middleweight, middleweight, light heavyweight and heavyweight) and 3 for women (strawweight, flyweight and roosterweight). Fighters compete to climb the rankings in their category, with the ultimate goal of winning the belt, the title that rewards the best UFC fighter in his or her category.
Not all the weekend's fights will have the same appeal, with some having the title at stake, while others will only pit contenders (challengers) for the belt, whose mission is to climb the rankings to be offered the opportunity to fight the champion and thus win the category's belt.
An MMA evening consists of around ten bouts, each spaced 30 minutes apart, and is divided into 2 cards: the secondary card and the main card. But what's the difference between the two cards? Fighters on the main card fight in 5 rounds of 5 minutes each, while fighters on the secondary card have to make do with 3 rounds of 5 minutes each. Until now, sportsbooks have only offered odds for the main card, which features the best UFC fighters of the evening.
Each fight can have a different outcome among the following possibilities:
- Submission: The referee can stop the fight when the fighter submits his opponent to the ground and the latter can no longer move. As a second option, the grounded fighter signals that he can do no more and admits defeat.
- KO: A fighter knocks his opponent unconscious with a blow, so the referee intervenes and stops the fight.
- Technical knockout (TKO): the referee notes that one of the fighters is no longer in a fighting position after receiving one or more blows, or a doctor who comes to consult the fighter considers that the latter cannot resume the fight.
- Disqualification: stop by the referee or doctor after an illegal blow by a fighter.
- No Contest: the fight has no winner following an unintentional illegal blow by a fighter who has knocked out his opponent, or if both fighters are knocked out.
- Judges' decision: the fight comes to an end and the fight judges decide on a winner or a draw.
Now that you've got all the information you need on how UFC fights work, you're ready to make your UFC prediction!
How to Make Good UFC Fight Predictions?
To put you in the best conditions to make your UFC prediction every weekend, discover our tips to be ready for the challenge of the octagon :
- Favor the fight's favorite
- Hold an account with several sportsbooks
- Find out about the fighters' form and careers
- Compare sportsbook odds
- Analyze fighters' styles
Favor the fight favorite
While some fights feature fighters of a similar level, others pit two fighters with very different rankings against each other. Our advice is to bet on the favorite! Based on the odds available from the sportsbooks, you'll be able to see which fighter is the favorite. Next, take the time to find out the rankings of the two fighters in the octagon, to check whether the difference between the two odds is justified.
For example, if the 12th-ranked heavyweight fighter takes on an opponent ranked 134th, the underdog will have little chance of winning the fight. The odds may be less attractive, but they'll be safer. Our experts will be on hand to give you all the information you need to make the right UFC prediction.
Hold an account with several sportsbooks
As with any sport, making an MMA prediction requires you to take your time, analyze, and understand the odds. Bear in mind that not all fights are available on the various sportsbook sites. While this should be rectified in the future, for the time being, you may have to juggle between sports betting sites to find the fight of your choice.
Our first tip is to open a player account with several sportsbooks, so you can be sure of finding the fight you want. You'll be able to take advantage of quality welcome offers at the vast majority of sportsbooks, allowing you to make your first UFC bets with confidence!
Find out about the shape and career of the fighters
The form and dynamics of the fighters are key elements to take into account before placing a sporting bet. Like team sports, MMA is also a sport of confidence, with periods of lesser and greater success. Before making your UFC prediction, take the time to find out about the fighters' most recent fights over the last few months, the number of wins and losses, and the manner of successes and setbacks (submission, KO, etc.).
An example: two fighters with the same record of 10 wins and 5 losses won't necessarily have the same form, with one staying on 4 wins in a row while the second has lost 3 of the last 4 fights. An example which means that the record may be one thing, but the form is another. Just like knowing the track record of the opponents encountered, which can have an impact on the fighter's record. The value of previous victories should be taken into account when placing your UFC prediction with a sportsbook!
Comparing sportsbook odds
As mentioned above, not all sportsbooks will offer the same fights, and in some cases, you'll have to juggle between bookmakers to find what you're looking for.
In addition to finding a fight that may or may not be available at certain sportsbooks, comparing the odds offered by the different sportsbook sites could enable you to win more money! In fact, each set of odds is defined by the operator himself and can therefore differ from one site to another. Winning more money with the same stake will obviously be the priority in order to maximize your winnings.
Let's take an example: France's Benoît Saint-Denis takes on Brazil's Charles Oliveira in Las Vegas. The odds of a win for the French fighter at FanDuel would be -100, while those offered by DraftKings would not exceed -150. The natural choice would be for the first sportsbook, FanDuel, with a possible difference of $5 on a $100 bet. While the difference may not seem huge at the time, it will have an impact on your wallet when it comes time to settle up!
Analyzing fighters' styles
Different types of sports betting will be available for each fight, in addition to betting on the winner of the duel. You'll be able to choose the number of rounds and the way the match will end (submission, KO, technical KO, disqualification or decision). In this case, you'll need to know how the fighter won (or lost) his previous bouts.
Some fighters tend to knock out their opponents very quickly and with great intensity, but in a limited fight time, while others rely on stamina to make the fight last and tire out their opponents. Before placing your UFC prediction, take the time to get to know the fighters and their way of fighting, so as to put all the odds on your side.
As you can see, our experts take all this advice into account before offering you their selection, as well as their personal opinion to make the difference when it comes to choosing the right UFC prediction.
What not to do for your UFC predictions
We've given you some invaluable tips for success when making our UFC predictions, so it's also important to give you the things not to do in order to put all the odds on your side:
- Not having analyzed the fighters
- Bet on your favorite fighter without taking his opponent into account
- Don't compare sportsbook odds
- Not knowing what's at stake in the fight
- Overplaying the big odds in the hope of winning more.
By following all our advice, you'll finally be ready to start your adventure in the world of sports betting!
UFC Predictions: Statistics you need to know
As in every sport, certain trends naturally emerge and should be taken into account when making your MMA and UFC predictions. The statistics won't tell you the outcome of the fight, but they will help you to target your UFC predictions more accurately. The figures given below only concern fights since the beginning of 2024, i.e. 204 fights:
- Victory by KO: 31.9%
- Victory by submission: 16.2
- Victory by decision: 50
- No Contest: 1.5%
- Disqualification: 0.5
These statistics should be combined with the analysis of each fighter, to give a more accurate UFC bet. For example, betting on Benoit Saint-Denis to win his next fight by KO after analyzing the fact that the Frenchman wins most of his fights by KO, and that more than 3 out of 10 fights end this way, would be a good idea!
As you can see, one out of every two fights goes to the finish in UFC in 2024, while No Contest and disqualification are very rarely the outcome of fights. If you're having trouble making up your mind, don't forget these statistics!
In Short: How to predict the UFC?
You now have all the information you need to make your UFC predictions. Now that you know how MMA, and UFC in particular, works, you can prepare your predictions by analyzing the fighters, their style, and their form while comparing the odds offered by the sportsbooks.
You'll also have access to UFC predictions from our experts, who'll give you a selection of the best opportunities for upcoming matches. Free advice, available at all times, to make you an expert UFC bettor!
All images in this article are from the IMAGO website.
