PFL Picks & Predictions
19 Oct 2024 - 14:00
PFL - PFL
Francis Ngannou to win.
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PFL Format and Predictions
It may be easy to forget, but MMA is still a growing sport in the US. With roots back to 1980, MMA has since been authorized for betting at the professional level, and followers are set to become increasingly numerous. Founded in 2017, the PFL is an American mixed martial arts league with 6 categories, 5 for men and 1 for women. A rival league to the UFC, the PFL has been able to attract big names to make its league a true championship in its own right, while making an even bigger name for itself recently by acquiring Bellator, the second-largest MMA league.
Each evening is divided into two cards, the preliminary card and the main card. The main card will feature the PFL night's most mouth-watering line-ups, with the discipline's best concluding the evening with the main event, the most important fight of the night. With several PFL evenings taking place every month, you'll be able to make your PFL predictions with the help of our experts, who'll be giving you their best advice throughout the season! Don't forget that when it comes to MMA predictions, the PFL is not to be outdone!
Beginner Sports Bettors - How does the PFL work?
The PFL (Professional Fighters League) is an American mixed martial arts league that was founded by Donn Davis in 2017. In November 2023, this organization bought out one of its competitors, Bellator, and became the most powerful MMA organization behind the UFC. Unlike its main MMA rival, the PFL offers a championship system, with 10 fighters competing in a regular season before competing for the title in play-offs, reserved for the top 4 fighters at the end of the season. With 6 categories to its credit (Featherweight 66kg, Lightweight 70kg, Welterweight 77kg, Light Heavyweight 93kg and Heavyweight 120kg for men, and Women's Flyweight 57kg for women), the PFL continues to grow and offers a format different from the UFC that attracts many fans.
A PFL evening generally features around ten fights and is separated into two parts: the preliminary card (3 rounds of 5 minutes) and the main card (5 rounds of 5 minutes). For the moment, only odds for the main card are available on sports betting sites, but in the future sportsbooks may be able to offer odds for all the fights on a PFL evening.
There are several possibilities for the outcome of a fight, with the following possible endings:
- Submission: either the fighter submits his opponent to the ground, immobilizing him and preventing him from being able to continue the fight. The referee can then decide to stop the fight, or the immobilized fighter signals that he can no longer fight.
- KO: a fighter knocks out his opponent with a blow that renders him unconscious, the referee declares a KO and stops the fight.
- Technical KO (TKO): either the referee declares that one of the two fighters is no longer able to continue the fight after receiving one or more blows, or the doctor comes to examine the fighter and deems that he/she cannot continue the fight.
- Disqualification: stop by the referee or doctor after an illegal blow by a fighter.
- No Contest: the fight has no official winner after an unintentional illegal blow by a fighter who has knocked out his opponent. Second possibility: both fighters are knocked out in the same action and cannot resume the fight.
- Judges' decision: the fight comes to an end (3 or 5 rounds) and the fight judges decide on the winner or on a draw between the two fighters.
The PFL is, unlike the UFC, a championship with fighters scoring points based on victories achieved. Here's how the PFL distributes ranking points:
- Victory: 3 points
- Defeat: 0 points
- 1st round win: 3 bonus points
- 2nd round win: 2 bonus points
- Victory in 3rd round: 1 bonus point
- Victory in 4th or 5th round: 0 bonus points
To give you an example, a fighter who wins his fight in round 1 will pocket 6 points (3 points for victory plus 3 bonus points), while a victory in round 3 will award 4 points to the winner (3 points for victory plus 1 bonus point). A feature to take into account when making your PFL prediction!
How to Make Good Predictions on PFL Fights?
Now that you know how the PFL works, here are our tips for making your PFL prediction and optimizing your chances of winning:
- Have an account with several sportsbooks
- Keep track of fighters' careers and current form
- Understand the participants' fighting style
- Compare odds on sports betting sites
Have an account with several sportsbooks
MMA is still among the newer sports, and not all sportsbooks offer predictions on this sport, which is still relatively unknown. Not all fights are present on all sports betting sites (no odds for the preliminary card), and perhaps the fight you're interested in won't be available at the sportsbook you want to play with.
Don't hesitate to open a player account with most of the sportsbooks available in the US, to be sure of finding odds for the fight you want. This will give you the opportunity to take advantage of welcome offers for opening an account with a sports betting site (first bet refunded up to $100 or first deposit doubled) and to make your first PFL prediction without risk!
Track the career development of fighters and their current form
Like any individual sport, a fighter's current form will be an important element to take into account in PFL, as will their ranking in the category. Analyzing the latest performances of each fighter (or taking advantage of the PFL predictions of our experts on the site) before making your MMA prediction to find out the latest results and how the fights ended (submission, KO, judges' decision) will then be very interesting for you.
You can also consult the fighters' track records to find out everything you need to know about the career and development of the fighter in question. Another element to take into account is the quality of the opponents fought, to understand the real value of victory or defeat.
Understand how participants fight
Kickboxing base, more specialist in wrestling or boxing, good stamina or solid in jiu-jitsu are examples of characteristics for MMA fighters. Each PFL fighter will have his or her qualities, but also his or her flaws, which will be interesting to know before making your PFL prediction on how the fight will be decided, for example.
While some fighters will want to finish as quickly as possible, others will want to drag out the fight to tire out their opponents. So be patient, and before placing your PFL bet, analyze the style of each fighter to target your sports bet.
Compare sports betting odds
As we mentioned earlier in the article, sportsbooks won't offer the same odds for the same fights, and at times you'll have to navigate from one sportsbook to another to make your PFL prediction on the fight you want.
But when you made the decision to start your adventure on a sports betting site, the aim was to make money. And from one sportsbook to another, odds can vary, with some sites being more generous. Knowing that with the same wager, you can win more money, why deprive yourself!
Take the example of France's Cédric Doumbé in a match against Jaleel Willis. On FanDuel, the odds of a win for the French fighter will be -178, while on DraftKings, the odds for the Frenchman will be -163. If you decide to bet $100 on success for the French fighter, you could win the sum of $156 on FanDuel, while DraftKings will allow you to win $161! This may not seem like a huge difference at the time, but it's one that can pay off on every PFL fight night.
However, our experts will be on hand to support you throughout the season, with a selection of the best PFL predictions of the evening on every fight weekend, as well as their most targeted advice.
What Not To Do for Your PFL Predictions
As with all sports betting, there are certain things you should or shouldn't do. Having given you our tips on how to become an MMA fan, here are the things to avoid when making your PFL predictions:
- Forgetting to analyze both fighters
- Betting on your favorite fighter without taking into account the opponent's qualities
- Failing to compare odds on sports betting sites
- Not taking into account what's at stake in the fight
- Betting on the big odds in the hope of higher winnings.
With the help of these tips, you now have all you need to make your PFL prediction!
PFL Predictions: Statistics you need to know
Statistics are often present to accompany sportsmen and women, but also punters, who rely on figures to target their PFL predictions. Even if these stats won't tell you the winner of the fights, they can nevertheless help you analyze how each fight might end. Here are some figures on the fights made since 2023 (559 fights):
- Victory by KO: 32
- Victory by submission: 19
- Victory by decision: 46.5
- No Contest and Disqualification: 2.5%
It's up to you to make good use of these statistics to help you make your PFL prediction. To give you an example, rather than betting on Cedric Doumbé's success in his next fight when you know that the French fighter has won the majority of his fights by KO, bet on the Frenchman's success by KO to increase the odds of your bet!
It's worth noting that almost half of all PFL fights end in a decision by the judges, proving that the fighters can't always win by force. An important fact to bear in mind when making your MMA prediction on PFL fights.
In a Nutshell: How do you predict the PFL?
You now know how a PFL season works (championship and play-offs) and all the tips you need to make your PFL prediction in the best possible conditions. These tips are to be taken at the time of making a bet, along with an analysis of the fighters, their current form and the best odds available from the sportsbooks.
But you'll never be on your own, with our experts on hand to give you free advice on PFL evenings and a selection of the best PFL bets to make!
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