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Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills Prediction & Picks - NFL
by Erik Gibbs | in NFL Picks
The Buffalo Bills are set to host the Denver Broncos in the Wild Card round of the playoffs on Sunday afternoon, marking an exciting matchup between a seasoned powerhouse and an upstart squad led by a rookie quarterback. This will be the first meeting between these teams this season, with their last clash coming in Week 10 of the previous year, when Denver managed a surprising 10-point victory on the road. The Broncos have defied expectations this season, earning the final Wild Card spot as the 7-seed in the AFC. Head coach Sean Payton and rookie quarterback Bo Nix have forged a productive partnership, driving Denver to an impressive ten-win campaign. Buffalo, on the other hand, has long been a staple in postseason discussions. They secured the AFC East title and the 2-seed in the conference, propelled by one of the league's most potent offenses, averaging 30.9 points per game. Defensively, they rank 11th, allowing just 21.6 points per game. Linebacker Dorian Williams led the team with 117 tackles, while Greg Rousseau contributed eight of the team’s 39 sacks. The Bills’ defense also proved opportunistic, recording 16 interceptions, with contributions spread across the roster.
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Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills Form
Denver Broncos and Buffalo Bills Latest Matches
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Denver Broncos against Buffalo Bills : Head to Head (H2H)
Nov 13, 2023 - NFL
Denver Broncos - Buffalo Bills: Form Analysis
The Bills enter the playoffs with a chip on their shoulder, aiming to prove they can finally surpass the Kansas City Chiefs. Against this backdrop, the Broncos don’t appear to be a significant obstacle on Buffalo’s road to redemption. While rookie Nix has shown flashes of brilliance, his tendency to force plays in critical moments could spell trouble if Denver falls behind early. If the Bills jump out to a commanding lead, this matchup could spiral out of control quickly, potentially becoming a three-score game by halftime. In such a scenario, the Broncos would face an uphill battle to claw back into contention, likely falling short.
Buffalo’s offense has been firing on all cylinders, scoring 30 or more points in nine of their last eleven games, including three outings with 40-plus points. Given Denver’s recent struggles against Burrow and the Bengals’ passing attack, Allen seems primed for a similarly dominant performance. For Denver to keep the game competitive, their defense must force an early turnover and give Nix the chance to play with a lead. However, the odds of such a scenario playing out seem slim.
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Denver Broncos & Buffalo Bills Squad Analysis
The regular season has concluded, and history suggests that favorites tend to perform well in the expanded Wild Card round. For Denver Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix, this matchup presents a daunting challenge. He will face Buffalo Bills head coach Sean McDermott’s disciplined defense on a chilly and windy day in Buffalo, with temperatures hovering around 30 degrees. Such conditions are far from ideal for a first-time playoff quarterback, and the Bills’ defense is poised to pressure him relentlessly throughout the game. The Broncos face a significant limitation in their offensive strategy—they lack a reliable ground game to take the pressure off Nix. Their leading rusher managed just 513 yards this season, ranking 42nd in the NFL. This leaves Denver heavily reliant on Nix to make plays, an unenviable position for a rookie in one of the league’s most hostile playoff environments.
On the other hand, the Buffalo Bills boast one of the NFL’s most explosive offenses, ranking second in scoring behind only the Detroit Lions. Quarterback Josh Allen is a frontrunner for the MVP award, with DraftKings giving him -450 odds to win. Allen had an outstanding season, throwing for 3,731 yards (14th in the league) on a 63.6% completion rate, with 28 touchdowns (7th) and just six interceptions. His dual-threat ability added another dimension to Buffalo’s attack, as he finished second on the team in rushing with 531 yards and scored 12 rushing touchdowns. Buffalo’s ground game is anchored by running back James Cook, who surpassed 1,000 rushing yards this season, finishing with 1,009. Cook also led the league in rushing touchdowns, tying for first with 16 scores. In the passing game, Khalil Shakir emerged as the team’s top receiver, recording 821 yards and four touchdowns, while Keon Coleman contributed 556 yards and four scores.
Denver Broncos - Buffalo Bills Key Points
- The Bills are 3-2 vs. the Broncos in their last 5 games
- The Bills are 10-7 ATS this season
- The Broncos are 12-5 ATS (NFL leader)
- The Over has hit at least 60% for both teams this season
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Our Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills Prediction
The Broncos’ playoff run has been a remarkable story, but their youth and lack of consistency against top-tier opponents could prove costly. Despite their impressive record, Denver only managed wins against two playoff teams during the regular season, one of which came against Kansas City's reserve players. Losses to playoff-bound teams like the Chargers and Bengals highlighted some of their vulnerabilities. The Broncos' success is built on a balanced team effort, with three players earning Pro Bowl nods: linebacker Nick Bonitto, cornerback Patrick Surtain II, and return specialist Marvin Mims Jr. Their dramatic Week 18 shutout victory over the Kansas City Chiefs, albeit against a lineup of backups, showcased their potential as they head into the playoffs. The Bills, led by star quarterback Josh Allen, bring a wealth of playoff experience to the table. Having rested key players in Week 18 after a dominant stretch of ten wins in eleven games, Buffalo is well-positioned to make a statement. The challenge for Denver lies in overcoming both a hostile environment in Buffalo and the pressures of postseason football with a rookie quarterback. Given the historical struggles of first-time playoff starters, the Bills are expected to capitalize on their experience and superior firepower to secure a decisive victory over the Broncos. Our prediction for the Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos: Bills to cover the spread.
Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills - Other Interesting Picks
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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