Borussia Dortmund vs Sporting Lisbon Prediction & Picks - Champions League

Europe - Champions League

Borussia Dortmund
2/19/25 12:45
Sporting Lisbon

Prediction:

 

Under 2.5 Goals

+125
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 by Bradley Gibbs | in Champions League Picks

There's more UEFA Champions League action coming our way on Wednesday evening, with four fixtures to dig into. In Germany, there's the small matter of Dortmund vs Sporting. 

Have the hosts completed the job with a leg to spare? Well, not quite, but they've certainly put one foot in the next stage of the competition by picking up that easy three-goal win in the Portuguese capital last week. Having delivered what looks to be the knockout blow already in this tie, the men in yellow took the more low-key approach at the weekend, when they lost to Bochum in the league, but they can be expected to raise their game here. 

For the visitors, who once again stuttered domestically at the weekend, tying with Arouca on home soil, it's all about a recovery mission, though if we look at how things have generally gone for one of the giants of Portuguese soccer in recent times, then it's not too easy to see them turning this one around. Can they do it? Probably not. 

Borussia Dortmund have won 3 of their last 5 matches against Shakhtar Donetsk (3-1) and Sporting CP (0-3) in the Champions League, and then at Heidenheim in the Bundesliga. However, the current 11th-placed Bundesliga team, 8 points off the top 4, surprisingly lost 2-0 at bottom-placed Bochum at the weekend. A win could have put BVB back in the race for Europe, but the team's inconsistency could cost them dearly at the end of the season.

Sporting CP on a 3-match winless run.

Sporting CP shot themselves in the foot with a heavy first-leg defeat (0-3), and now see qualification for the last 16 as mission impossible. This is the 3rd game in a row without success for the Portuguese league leaders, who have now drawn 2 Liga Sagres games at FC Porto (1-1) and at home to Arouca (2-2) on February 15th. Benfica, who have won their last two matches, are now 2 points behind Sporting CP in the title race.

Borussia Dortmund vs Sporting Lisbon Form

Borussia Dortmund and Sporting Lisbon Latest Matches

Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund Latest matches
D W W L W L
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.17 Total goals
67% BTTS
1.83 Goals scored
1.33 Goals conceded
83% Over 2.5
17% Under 2.5

Feb 15, 2025 - Bundesliga

Bochum
2 :  0
Borussia Dortmund

Feb 11, 2025 - Champions League

Sporting Lisbon
0 :  3
Borussia Dortmund

Feb 8, 2025 - Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund
1 :  2
Stuttgart

Feb 1, 2025 - Bundesliga

Heidenheim
1 :  2
Borussia Dortmund

Jan 29, 2025 - Champions League

Borussia Dortmund
3 :  1
Shakhtar Donetsk

Jan 25, 2025 - Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund
2 :  2
Werder Bremen
L D L D W L
Victories

1/6 (17%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Defeats

3/6 (50%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.83 Total goals
100% BTTS
1.83 Goals scored
2 Goals conceded
83% Over 2.5
17% Under 2.5

Feb 8, 2025 - Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund
1 :  2
Stuttgart

Jan 29, 2025 - Champions League

Borussia Dortmund
3 :  1
Shakhtar Donetsk

Jan 25, 2025 - Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund
2 :  2
Werder Bremen

Jan 10, 2025 - Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund
2 :  3
Bayer Leverkusen

Dec 15, 2024 - Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund
1 :  1
Hoffenheim

Dec 11, 2024 - Champions League

Borussia Dortmund
2 :  3
Barcelona
L L L W W L
Victories

2/6 (33%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

4/6 (67%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.17 Total goals
50% BTTS
1.33 Goals scored
1.83 Goals conceded
67% Over 2.5
33% Under 2.5

Feb 15, 2025 - Bundesliga

Bochum
2 :  0
Borussia Dortmund

Feb 11, 2025 - Champions League

Sporting Lisbon
0 :  3
Borussia Dortmund

Feb 1, 2025 - Bundesliga

Heidenheim
1 :  2
Borussia Dortmund

Jan 21, 2025 - Champions League

Bologna
2 :  1
Borussia Dortmund

Jan 17, 2025 - Bundesliga

Eintracht Frankfurt
2 :  0
Borussia Dortmund

Jan 14, 2025 - Bundesliga

Holstein Kiel
4 :  2
Borussia Dortmund
Sporting Lisbon
Sporting Lisbon Latest matches
W D W D L D
Victories

2/6 (33%)

Draw

3/6 (50%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.83 Total goals
67% BTTS
1.5 Goals scored
1.33 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

Feb 15, 2025 - Liga Portugal

Sporting Lisbon
2 :  2
Arouca

Feb 11, 2025 - Champions League

Sporting Lisbon
0 :  3
Borussia Dortmund

Feb 7, 2025 - Liga Portugal

Porto
1 :  1
Sporting Lisbon

Feb 2, 2025 - Liga Portugal

Sporting Lisbon
3 :  1
Farense

Jan 29, 2025 - Champions League

Sporting Lisbon
1 :  1
Bologna

Jan 25, 2025 - Liga Portugal

Sporting Lisbon
2 :  0
Nacional Madeira
D W D W L D
Victories

2/6 (33%)

Draw

3/6 (50%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.83 Total goals
67% BTTS
1.5 Goals scored
1.33 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

Feb 15, 2025 - Liga Portugal

Sporting Lisbon
2 :  2
Arouca

Feb 11, 2025 - Champions League

Sporting Lisbon
0 :  3
Borussia Dortmund

Feb 2, 2025 - Liga Portugal

Sporting Lisbon
3 :  1
Farense

Jan 29, 2025 - Champions League

Sporting Lisbon
1 :  1
Bologna

Jan 25, 2025 - Liga Portugal

Sporting Lisbon
2 :  0
Nacional Madeira

Jan 11, 2025 - Portugal League Cup

Sporting Lisbon
1 :  1
Benfica Lisbon
L D D W L D
Victories

1/6 (17%)

Draw

3/6 (50%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.17 Total goals
67% BTTS
1.67 Goals scored
1.5 Goals conceded
67% Over 2.5
33% Under 2.5

Feb 7, 2025 - Liga Portugal

Porto
1 :  1
Sporting Lisbon

Jan 22, 2025 - Champions League

Leipzig
2 :  1
Sporting Lisbon

Jan 18, 2025 - Liga Portugal

Rio Ave
0 :  3
Sporting Lisbon

Jan 3, 2025 - Liga Portugal

Vitoria SC Guimaraes
4 :  4
Sporting Lisbon

Dec 22, 2024 - Liga Portugal

Gil Vicente
0 :  0
Sporting Lisbon

Dec 10, 2024 - Champions League

Club Brugge
2 :  1
Sporting Lisbon

Borussia Dortmund against Sporting Lisbon : Head to Head (H2H)

Borussia Dortmund

80 %

Draw

0 %

Sporting Lisbon

20 %

Average stats (last H2H results)

2.4
Total goals
40%
BTTS
1.6
Goals scored (Team 1)
0.8
Goals scored (Team 2)
60%
Over 2.5
40%
Under 2.5

Feb 11, 2025 - Champions League

Sporting Lisbon
0 :  3
Borussia Dortmund

Nov 24, 2021 - Champions League

Sporting Lisbon
3 :  1
Borussia Dortmund

Sep 28, 2021 - Champions League

Borussia Dortmund
1 :  0
Sporting Lisbon

Nov 2, 2016 - Champions League

Borussia Dortmund
1 :  0
Sporting Lisbon

Oct 18, 2016 - Champions League

Sporting Lisbon
1 :  2
Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund - Sporting Lisbon: Form Analysis

Borussia Dortmund will be without Felix Nmecha for this return play-off. Carney Chukwuemeka and Ramy Bensebaini make their return to the starting line-up, but Niko Kovac has already announced that it is too early for them to start, and that they could probably get a few minutes late on. Young defender Filippo Mane remains a doubt.

Borussia Dortmund will still be able to count on their striker and Europe's top scorer, Serhou Guirassy, who is putting in a fine performance in the Champions League with 10 goals and 3 assists to his name. The Guinean international, who scored in the first leg, has now scored 6 goals in his last 7 games. With a total of 19 goals in 29 official club appearances, Guirassy is BVB's strongest man.

Serhou Guirassy on top of Europe with 10 goals and 3 assists.

Sporting CP will be on the move and will have to cope without a number of players. As a result, Daniel Braganca, Geny Catamo, Pedro Goncalves, Hidemasa Morita, Nuno Santos, Jerry St. Juste, Trincao and Viktor Gyökeres are unlikely to make the trip.

The 19-year-old Danish striker Conrad Harder has been making a name for himself in recent weeks, scoring 3 goals and providing 2 assists in his last 5 appearances. With a goal and an assist on the final day of the Liga Sagres this weekend against Arouca (2-2), the Dane, who has already scored in the Champions League this season, could take advantage of Viktor Gyokeres' absence to shine again.

Borussia Dortmund against Sporting Lisbon Lineups: Starting 11

Borussia Dortmund

Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1

1
G. Kobel
26
J. Ryerson
23
E. Can
4
N. Schlotterbeck
24
D. Svensson
20
M. Sabitzer
13
P. Gross
27
K. Adeyemi
10
J. Brandt
43
J. Gittens
9
S. Guirassy
57
G. Quenda
19
C. Harder
30
Biel
2
M. Reis
42
M. Hjulmand
52
J. Simoes
47
R. Esgaio
25
Goncalo Inacio
26
O. Diomande
72
Quaresma
24
Rui Silva

Formation : 3 - 4 - 3

Sporting Lisbon

Most goals and assists

CD Huachipato Borussia Dortmund
CD Huachipato Sporting Lisbon
Top Goalscorer
S. Guirassy (24 Goals)
Top Goalscorer
Sweden V. Gyokeres (38 Goals)
Best assists
Germany P. Gross (11 Assists)
Best assists
Portugal F. Trincao (12 Assists)

Borussia Dortmund - Sporting Lisbon Key Points

  1. As things stand, the hosts have the job done and don't need to do anything stupid on Wednesday evening.
  2. At the weekend, Dortmund managed to register just two shots on target.
  3. In the UEFA Champions League, the visitors have failed to score more than once in each of their last five games.
  4. With the league still to focus on and with this tie pretty much over, the visitors may not give this everything.

Our Borussia Dortmund vs Sporting Lisbon Prediction

It is perhaps a little pessismistic to suggest that neither team will really want to exert themselves on Wednesday evening, but that's where we may just be. Are the visitors really going to turn this around if they throw caution to the wind and go all-out offensive? Probably not. Such an approach would likely see them ripped apart on the break. The hosts also don't really need to do much besides keep things tight, so we could see quite a low-key game. On this basis, going under seems to be the smart play. Our Dortmund vs Sporting Pick: Under 2.5 Goals.

Prediction:

 

Under 2.5 Goals

+125
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Borussia Dortmund vs Sporting Lisbon - Other Interesting Picks

Dortmund Win

Odds -125
Borussia Dortmund have won all 3 of their European matches at Signal Iduna Park, with the exception of a 2-2 draw with Barcelona. Celtic Glasgow (7-1), Sturm Graz (1-0) and Shakhtar Donetsk (3-1) fell this season in Germany. BVB have won 7 of their last 9 Champions League matches played at home. Since November 2023, PSG (1-1) and Barça (2-3) are the only two clubs to have taken points from Dortmund. Sporting, who will be traveling with a host of absentees (Daniel Braganca, Geny Catamo, Hidemasa Morita, Nuno Santos, Jerry St. Juste and, above all, Pedro Goncalves, Trincao and Viktor Gyökeres), could find it hard to cope.
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Borussia Dortmund vs Sporting Lisbon Picks