Europe - Champions League

Borussia Dortmund
3/4/25 15:00
Lille

Prediction:

 

Karim Adeyemi Over 0.5 Shots on Target

-105
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Borussia Dortmund vs Lille Prediction & Picks - Champions League

 by Bradley Gibbs | in Champions League Picks

Tuesday's UEFA Champions League action includes a game at the iconic soccer venue of Signal Iduna Park, home to Dortmund's famous yellow wall, and with the yellow wall roaring them on, Borussia Dortmund will be hoping to build a first-leg advantage before heading to Lille for the second leg of this last-16 tie. 

This is a huge game for the hosts. The Bundesliga season hasn't exactly gone the way that the men in yellow would've hoped, so they ought to be fully focused on going deep in this competition, much as they did last season. After grinding out the job against Sporting a fortnight ago, Niko Kovac's men have warmed up for this test with back-to-back league wins against lesser opposition, scoring eight and conceding zero in the process. Such form should mean that the hosts are feeling confident of Tuesday evening. 

For the visitors, confidence may not be so high. They were humbled by PSG at the weekend, losing by four goals to nil, though we shouldn't judge them too harshly for that defeat, with them clearly playing with this massive game in mind. We've seen how useful the men from northern France can be in this competition, so don't be too surprised if they give the Germans a battle in Dortmund. 

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Borussia Dortmund vs Lille Form

Borussia Dortmund and Lille Latest Matches

Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund Latest matches
L W L D W W
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.67 Total goals
17% BTTS
2 Goals scored
0.67 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

Mar 1, 2025 - Bundesliga

St. Pauli
0 :  2
Borussia Dortmund

Feb 22, 2025 - Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund
6 :  0
Union Berlin

Feb 19, 2025 - Champions League

Borussia Dortmund
0 :  0
Sporting Lisbon

Feb 15, 2025 - Bundesliga

Bochum
2 :  0
Borussia Dortmund

Feb 11, 2025 - Champions League

Sporting Lisbon
0 :  3
Borussia Dortmund

Feb 8, 2025 - Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund
1 :  2
Stuttgart
L D W L D W
Victories

2/6 (33%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.67 Total goals
67% BTTS
2.33 Goals scored
1.33 Goals conceded
83% Over 2.5
17% Under 2.5

Feb 22, 2025 - Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund
6 :  0
Union Berlin

Feb 19, 2025 - Champions League

Borussia Dortmund
0 :  0
Sporting Lisbon

Feb 8, 2025 - Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund
1 :  2
Stuttgart

Jan 29, 2025 - Champions League

Borussia Dortmund
3 :  1
Shakhtar Donetsk

Jan 25, 2025 - Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund
2 :  2
Werder Bremen

Jan 10, 2025 - Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund
2 :  3
Bayer Leverkusen
L L W W L W
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

3/6 (50%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.5 Total goals
33% BTTS
1.33 Goals scored
1.17 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

Mar 1, 2025 - Bundesliga

St. Pauli
0 :  2
Borussia Dortmund

Feb 15, 2025 - Bundesliga

Bochum
2 :  0
Borussia Dortmund

Feb 11, 2025 - Champions League

Sporting Lisbon
0 :  3
Borussia Dortmund

Feb 1, 2025 - Bundesliga

Heidenheim
1 :  2
Borussia Dortmund

Jan 21, 2025 - Champions League

Bologna
2 :  1
Borussia Dortmund

Jan 17, 2025 - Bundesliga

Eintracht Frankfurt
2 :  0
Borussia Dortmund
Lille
Lille Latest matches
W D L W W L
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.33 Total goals
83% BTTS
1.83 Goals scored
1.5 Goals conceded
67% Over 2.5
33% Under 2.5

Mar 1, 2025 - Ligue 1

PSG
4 :  1
Lille

Feb 22, 2025 - Ligue 1

Lille
2 :  1
Monaco

Feb 16, 2025 - Ligue 1

Rennes
0 :  2
Lille

Feb 8, 2025 - Ligue 1

Lille
1 :  2
Le Havre

Feb 4, 2025 - French Cup

Lille
1 :  1
USL Dunkerque

Feb 1, 2025 - Ligue 1

Lille
4 :  1
Saint Etienne
W W W D L W
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.83 Total goals
100% BTTS
2.67 Goals scored
1.17 Goals conceded
83% Over 2.5
17% Under 2.5

Feb 22, 2025 - Ligue 1

Lille
2 :  1
Monaco

Feb 8, 2025 - Ligue 1

Lille
1 :  2
Le Havre

Feb 4, 2025 - French Cup

Lille
1 :  1
USL Dunkerque

Feb 1, 2025 - Ligue 1

Lille
4 :  1
Saint Etienne

Jan 29, 2025 - Champions League

Lille
6 :  1
Feyenoord

Jan 17, 2025 - Ligue 1

Lille
2 :  1
Nice
D D L L W L
Victories

1/6 (17%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Defeats

3/6 (50%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.5 Total goals
67% BTTS
1 Goals scored
1.5 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

Mar 1, 2025 - Ligue 1

PSG
4 :  1
Lille

Feb 16, 2025 - Ligue 1

Rennes
0 :  2
Lille

Jan 25, 2025 - Ligue 1

Strasbourg
2 :  1
Lille

Jan 21, 2025 - Champions League

Liverpool
2 :  1
Lille

Jan 14, 2025 - French Cup

Marseille
1 :  1
Lille

Jan 10, 2025 - Ligue 1

Auxerre
0 :  0
Lille

Borussia Dortmund - Lille: Form Analysis

Having exited the DFB Pokal in the round of 16, Borussia Dortmund's Bundesliga form is not necessarily any better. Admittedly, they have won their last 2 matches, against Union Berlin (6-0) and St. Pauli (0-2). However, they are only in 10th place in the standings. The team coached by Niko Kovac is therefore likely to be betting big on the Champions League. After finishing 10th in the league phase, BVB had to go through a play-off. And they didn't give Sporting CP a chance (aggregate score: 3-0). They now meet LOSC in the last eight of the C1.

Lille knocked out some of the big names in the Champions League league phase.

For their part, Lille still have big goals in Ligue 1. Despite their latest defeat by PSG (4-1), they remain in 5th place in the French league, just 2 points off the top 4. Before losing to the in-form French outfit, Lille had beaten Stade Rennais (0-2) and AS Monaco (2-1). In the Champions League, Bruno Genesio's men surprised everyone during the league phase. To finish in the top 8 and go straight through to the last 8, they held off Juventus (1-1), but also beat Real Madrid (1-0) and Atlético de Madrid (1-3).

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Lille v Borussia Dortmund last Lineups

Borussia Dortmund

Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1

1
G. Kobel
2
Y. Couto
23
E. Can
4
N. Schlotterbeck
5
R. Bensebaini
20
M. Sabitzer
13
P. Gross
27
K. Adeyemi
7
G. Reyna
14
M. Beier
9
S. Guirassy
24
C. Akpom
20
M. Bakker
17
N. Mukau
8
A. Gomes
21
B. Andre
6
N. Bentaleb
5
G. Gudmundsson
4
A. Ribeiro
18
B. Diakite
12
T. Meunier
30
L. Chevalier

Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1

Lille

Missing players

Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund
Midfielder

F. Nmecha

Lille
Lille
Defender

S. Umtiti

T. Santos

Forward

E. Zhegrova

Borussia Dortmund & Lille Squad Analysis

Borussia Dortmund will be without Felix Nmecha for the first leg of their Champions League Round of 8 tie. Julian Ryerson remains a doubt after missing his side's last Bundesliga match. There are several players in Niko Kovac's squad who will need to be closely monitored. Karim Adeyemi is back to his best lately. In fact, he scored against St. Pauli last weekend. And what can we say about Serhou Guirassy's performances? He has already scored 24 goals in all competitions this season. He is the current top scorer in the Champions League, with almost 10 goals.

Serhou Guirassy is the Champions League's top scorer, with 10 goals.

As for Lille, Tiago Santos, Samuel Umtiti and Edon Zhegrova are all out. Bruno Genesio has a number of other players in his squad to give the last Champions League finalists a run for their money. These include Lucas Chevalier. The young tricolored keeper shines in Lille's goal. And he's determined to keep his feet on the ground in this 8th final of the Champions League. Hakon Arnar Haraldsson, who scored twice just over two weeks ago against AS Monaco, will be eagerly awaited. The same goes for Jonathan David. After coming on at the hour mark against PSG, he scored his side's only goal of the game.

Most goals and assists

CD Huachipato Borussia Dortmund
CD Huachipato Lille
Top Goalscorer
S. Guirassy (24 Goals)
Top Goalscorer
Canada J. David (19 Goals)
Best assists
Germany P. Gross (11 Assists)
Best assists
Norway O. Sahraoui (4 Assists)
Canada J. David (4 Assists)

Borussia Dortmund and Lille Stats in Champions League

Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund
Lille
Lille
60%
Victories
58%
10%
Draw
17%
30%
Defeats
25%
3.7
Total goals per match
3.08
2.5
Goals scored per match
1.92
1.2
Goals conceded per match
1.17
80%
Over 2.5
58%
20%
Under 2.5
42%
50%
BTTS
75%
50%
No goals conceded
17%

Borussia Dortmund - Lille Key Points

  1. Karim Adeyemi is Dortmund's best player this season in terms of shots per 90 minutes.
  2. This season, Karim Adeyemi is averaging a very pleasing 1.07 shots on target per 90 minutes.
  3. Against Sporting in those two UCL play-off games, Adeyemi registered three shots on target, hitting the target both home and away.
  4. In his last six appearances, Adeyemi has registered six shots on target.
Up to $1500 to bet on Borussia Dortmund - Lille! 

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Our Borussia Dortmund vs Lille Prediction

The hosts will absolutely be looking to use their home advantage ahead of their trip to France and we know how menacing they can be when they get going at this venue. One player who has been particularly threatening of late is Karim Adeyemi. The German forward has actually been a little too threatening for odds of -105 (for him to shoot on target at least once) to be considered anything other than lenient. This is a man wh looks hungry for goals, and given his rather impressive recent shooting stats, he's well worth betting on to test the visiting keeper at least once. Our Dortmund vs Lille Pick: Karim Adeyemi Over 0.5 Shots on Target. 

Prediction:

 

Karim Adeyemi Over 0.5 Shots on Target

-105
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Borussia Dortmund vs Lille - Other Interesting Picks

Karim Adeyemi to Score

Odds +250
As a secondary bet, I really wouldn't want to put anybody off taking a punt on the young forward to score in this game. He arrives with his tail up having scored at the weekend, while we know that he's been anything but shy to shoot, taking no less than 16 shots in his last three appearances.
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Borussia Dortmund vs Lille Picks
Up to $1500 to bet on Borussia Dortmund - Lille! 

Limited Offer. Currently at BetMGM