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Athletic Bilbao vs Manchester United Prediction & Picks - Europa League

Europe - Europa League

Athletic Bilbao
5/1/25 14:00
Manchester United

Prediction:

 

Bilbao to score over 2.5 goals

+360
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 by Simon Day in Europa League Picks

Athletic Bilbao host Manchester United in the first leg of their Europa League semi final clash on Thursday night. The Spanish side are enjoying a fine season, and are currently on course for a top five finish in La Liga and a place in next season's Champions League. If they can also claim their first ever European title, it will go down as the greatest season in the club's 127 year history.

In contrast, it has been a completely forgettable domestic campaign for United. They are languishing in 14th place in the Premier League table and on course for their worst league finish in over 30 years. The only saving grace for Ruben Amorim's side has been their strong form in Europe. The incredible 5-4 quarter final victory over Lyon will live long in the memory, and if United can produce a similar display on Thursday, they could yet salvage something from their season. 

Athletic Bilbao vs Manchester United Form

Athletic Bilbao and Manchester United Latest Matches

Athletic Bilbao
Athletic Bilbao Latest matches
D D W W L W
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

1.33 Total goals
17% BTTS
1 Goals scored
0.33 Goals conceded
17% Over 2.5
83% Under 2.5

Apr 23, 2025 - LaLiga

Athletic Bilbao
1 :  0
Las Palmas

Apr 20, 2025 - LaLiga

Real Madrid
1 :  0
Athletic Bilbao

Apr 17, 2025 - Europa League

Athletic Bilbao
2 :  0
Rangers

Apr 13, 2025 - LaLiga

Athletic Bilbao
3 :  1
Rayo Vallecano

Apr 10, 2025 - Europa League

Rangers
0 :  0
Athletic Bilbao

Apr 6, 2025 - LaLiga

Villarreal
0 :  0
Athletic Bilbao
D W D W W W
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Defeats

0/6 (0%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.17 Total goals
50% BTTS
1.67 Goals scored
0.5 Goals conceded
33% Over 2.5
67% Under 2.5

Apr 23, 2025 - LaLiga

Athletic Bilbao
1 :  0
Las Palmas

Apr 17, 2025 - Europa League

Athletic Bilbao
2 :  0
Rangers

Apr 13, 2025 - LaLiga

Athletic Bilbao
3 :  1
Rayo Vallecano

Mar 30, 2025 - LaLiga

Athletic Bilbao
0 :  0
Osasuna

Mar 13, 2025 - Europa League

Athletic Bilbao
3 :  1
Roma

Mar 9, 2025 - LaLiga

Athletic Bilbao
1 :  1
Mallorca
L L W D D L
Victories

1/6 (17%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Defeats

3/6 (50%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

1 Total goals
17% BTTS
0.33 Goals scored
0.67 Goals conceded
17% Over 2.5
83% Under 2.5

Apr 20, 2025 - LaLiga

Real Madrid
1 :  0
Athletic Bilbao

Apr 10, 2025 - Europa League

Rangers
0 :  0
Athletic Bilbao

Apr 6, 2025 - LaLiga

Villarreal
0 :  0
Athletic Bilbao

Mar 16, 2025 - LaLiga

Sevilla
0 :  1
Athletic Bilbao

Mar 6, 2025 - Europa League

Roma
2 :  1
Athletic Bilbao

Mar 1, 2025 - LaLiga

Atletico Madrid
1 :  0
Athletic Bilbao
Manchester United
Manchester United Latest matches
D D L W L D
Victories

1/6 (17%)

Draw

3/6 (50%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.5 Total goals
67% BTTS
1.5 Goals scored
2 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

Apr 27, 2025 - Premier League

Bournemouth
1 :  1
Manchester United

Apr 20, 2025 - Premier League

Manchester United
0 :  1
Wolves

Apr 17, 2025 - Europa League

Manchester United
5 :  4
Lyon

Apr 13, 2025 - Premier League

Newcastle
4 :  1
Manchester United

Apr 10, 2025 - Europa League

Lyon
2 :  2
Manchester United

Apr 6, 2025 - Premier League

Manchester United
0 :  0
Manchester City
D D W D W L
Victories

2/6 (33%)

Draw

3/6 (50%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.17 Total goals
67% BTTS
1.83 Goals scored
1.33 Goals conceded
33% Over 2.5
67% Under 2.5

Apr 20, 2025 - Premier League

Manchester United
0 :  1
Wolves

Apr 17, 2025 - Europa League

Manchester United
5 :  4
Lyon

Apr 6, 2025 - Premier League

Manchester United
0 :  0
Manchester City

Mar 13, 2025 - Europa League

Manchester United
4 :  1
Real Sociedad

Mar 9, 2025 - Premier League

Manchester United
1 :  1
Arsenal

Mar 2, 2025 - FA Cup

Manchester United
1 :  1
Fulham
D W L D L D
Victories

1/6 (17%)

Draw

3/6 (50%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.83 Total goals
67% BTTS
1.33 Goals scored
1.5 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

Apr 27, 2025 - Premier League

Bournemouth
1 :  1
Manchester United

Apr 13, 2025 - Premier League

Newcastle
4 :  1
Manchester United

Apr 10, 2025 - Europa League

Lyon
2 :  2
Manchester United

Apr 1, 2025 - Premier League

Nottingham Forest
1 :  0
Manchester United

Mar 16, 2025 - Premier League

Leicester
0 :  3
Manchester United

Mar 6, 2025 - Europa League

Real Sociedad
1 :  1
Manchester United

Athletic Bilbao - Manchester United: Form Analysis

Bilbao's 1-0 home win over Las Palmas last week means they now have a five point cushion over the teams chasing them for a top four finish in La Liga. Their Europa League form has also been very impressive, especially at the San Mamés Stadium. Valverde's team have now won their last six home fixtures in the Europa League, including a comfortable 2-0 success over Rangers in the second leg of their quarter final. 

United saving their best for Europe

Remarkably, Manchester United's 5-4 quarter final victory over Lyon is their only victory from their last seven games. Sunday's 1-1 draw at Bournemouth means that United are guaranteed their lowest ever Premier League points tally, even if they win their remaining four fixtures. However, their overall form in Europe has been very solid and they are undefeated in their 12 Europa League games this season.

Manchester United v Athletic Bilbao last Lineups

Athletic Bilbao

Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1

1
U. Simon
18
O. De Marcos
3
D. Vivian
5
Y. Alvarez
17
Y. Berchiche
23
M. Jauregizar
16
I. Ruiz De Galarreta
9
I. Williams
8
O. Sancet
7
A. Berenguer
21
M. Sannadi
9
R. Hojlund
8
B. Fernandes
17
A. Garnacho
13
P. Dorgu
37
K. Mainoo
18
Casemiro
3
N. Mazraoui
15
L. Yoro
5
H. Maguire
23
L. Shaw
24
A. Onana

Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1

Manchester United

Missing players

Athletic Bilbao
Athletic Bilbao
Forward

N. Williams

Manchester United
Manchester United
Defender

L. Martinez

A. Heaven

M. De Ligt

Midfielder

A. Diallo

Forward

J. Zirkzee

Athletic Bilbao & Manchester United Squad Analysis

Bilbao boss Ernest Valverde is sweating on the fitness of Nico Williams and Oihan Sancet ahead of Thursday night's game. Spanish forward Williams has missed Bilbao's last two games with a minor injury, but hopes remain fairly high that he will be fit enough for at least a place on the bench against United. Meanwhile, Sancet suffered a hamstring injury during last week's victory over Las Palmas, and following a scan, he is rated as extremely unlikely to feature on Thursday. 

Major injury problems for Amorim

United come into this game with a lengthy injury list. Lisandro Martinez, Joshua Zirkzee and Amad Diallo are long term absentees, whilst Diogo Dalot is probably out for the rest of the season with a calf problem. On top of that, Matthijs Ligt is unlikely to have recovered from his foot injury in time for the game and fellow defender Ayden Heaven is still out with a back problem. 

Most goals and assists

CD Huachipato Athletic Bilbao
CD Huachipato Manchester United
Top Goalscorer
Spain O. Sancet (17 Goals)
Top Goalscorer
Portugal B. Fernandes (15 Goals)
Best assists
Ghana I. Williams (10 Assists)
Spain A. Berenguer (10 Assists)
Best assists
Portugal B. Fernandes (15 Assists)

Athletic Bilbao and Manchester United Stats in Europa League

Athletic Bilbao
Athletic Bilbao
Manchester United
Manchester United
67%
Victories
58%
17%
Draw
42%
17%
Defeats
0%
2.58
Total goals per match
3.75
1.75
Goals scored per match
2.33
0.83
Goals conceded per match
1.42
50%
Over 2.5
58%
50%
Under 2.5
42%
50%
BTTS
83%
50%
No goals conceded
17%

Athletic Bilbao - Manchester United Key Points

  1. Bilbao have scored over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4 Europa League home games
  2. United have gone 7 games without winning in 90 minutes
  3. Bilbao are on a 6 game winning run at home in Europe
  4. United have just 1 clean sheet in their last 7 Europa League away games

Our Athletic Bilbao vs Manchester United Prediction

United have looked thoroughly unconvincing in recent weeks and we simply cannot see them being able to keep pace with an in-form Bilbao. The Spaniards have been imperious at home this year and have been scoring goals for fun in the Europa League. The hosts have managed three goals in three of their last four European games at the San Mamés Stadium, and given United's defensive injury crisis, we are backing them to score at least three times again on Thursday evening. Our prediction for Athletic Bilbao vs Manchester United is: Bilbao to score over 2.5 goals.

Prediction:

 

Bilbao to score over 2.5 goals

+360
$200 offered for betting!

Athletic Bilbao vs Manchester United - Other Interesting Picks

Nico Williams to score

Odds +330
In Nico Williams, Bilbao have one of the most exciting attacking players in Europe, and given United's defensive frailties, we think the Spanish star could really enjoy himself in this game. The odds of over 4.00 on Williams finding the net look very appealing.
$200 offered for betting!

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Athletic Bilbao vs Manchester United Picks