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Aryna Sabalenka vs Paula Badosa Prediction & Picks - WTA Australian Open
by Lou Aguila | in Tennis Picks
Paula Badosa of Spain will go toe-to-toe with Aryna Sabalenka of Belarus in Thursday's women’s singles semifinal of the 2025 Australian Open. Badosa gets through to the semifinal of a Grand Slam tournament for the first time in her career after shocking Coco Gauff of the United States 7-5 6-4 on Tuesday. The Spaniard fired 31 aces and broke five times, including three in the second set, to pull off arguably the biggest upset in the women’s singles tournament at this year’s Australian Open. Before the loss, Gauff had dropped only one set in four matches. Sabalenka moved two wins away from winning the Australian Open for a third straight time after outlasting Anastasia Pavlyunchenkova of Russia 6-2 2-6 6-3. The Belarusian lass dominated the exchanges by winning 65 percent of her first serves and capturing 6 break point conversions. With the victory, Sabalenka has reached her 10th Grand Slam semifinals.
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Aryna Sabalenka vs Paula Badosa Form
Aryna Sabalenka and Paula Badosa Latest Matches
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
Jan 21, 2025 - WTA Australian Open
Jan 18, 2025 - WTA Australian Open
Jan 16, 2025 - WTA Australian Open
Jan 14, 2025 - WTA Australian Open
Jan 12, 2025 - WTA Australian Open
Jan 5, 2025 - WTA Brisbane
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
Jan 20, 2025 - WTA Australian Open
Jan 18, 2025 - WTA Australian Open
Jan 16, 2025 - WTA Australian Open
Jan 15, 2025 - WTA Australian Open
Jan 12, 2025 - WTA Australian Open
Jan 8, 2025 - WTA Adelaide
Aryna Sabalenka against Paula Badosa : Head to Head (H2H)
80 %
20 %
Dec 20, 2024 - World Tennis League, Women Singles
Jun 1, 2024 - WTA French Open
Apr 17, 2024 - WTA Stuttgart Open
Mar 22, 2024 - WTA Miami
Nov 11, 2021 - WTA Finals
Aryna Sabalenka - Paula Badosa: Form Analysis
Aryna Sabalenka has won her last 10 matches, losing two sets in that span. The world’s No.1 has also shown composure and mental toughness under pressure, and this trait makes her a formidable opponent in this stage of a Grand Slam tournament. As for Badosa, this is her first gut-check in a major tournament. Badosa went as high as world’s No.2 in the ranking but she has never gone this deep in a Grand Slam.
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Aryna Sabalenka & Paula Badosa Squad Analysis
The lower back injury that plagued Aryna Sabalenka last year is no longer an issue for her. She’s healthy and in form to engage in a marathon battle with any player in this tournament. The same can be said for Badosa, who admitted almost quit tennis because of a nagging back injury last year. The Spaniard has never looked this healthy, and she seems peaking at the right time.
Aryna Sabalenka - Paula Badosa Key Points
- Paula Badosa defeated Coco Gauff 7-5, 6-4 in the quarterfinal.
- Paula Badosa has reached her first Grand Slam semifinal.
- Aryna Sabalenka defeated Anastasia Pavlyunchenkova 6-2 2-6 6-3 in the quarterfinal.
- Aryna Sabalenka has reached her 10th Grand Slam semifinal.
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Our Aryna Sabalenka vs Paula Badosa Prediction
Aryna Sabalenka has won her last 10 matches and 5 head-to-head meetings with Badosa. Grand Slam tennis matches are hard to predict at times, but I am confident Sabalenka will cruise to the championship match unless a freak injury occurs mid-game. However, Badosa will give Sabalenka a feisty challenge in this duel. She has been playing at a high level, as proven by her win over Gauff. She will bring the fight to the world’s No.1. Our betting prediction for Aryna Sabalenka vs. Paula Badosa: Paula Badosa will cover +4.5 games.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Paula Badosa - Other Interesting Picks
Sabalenka will win 2-1.
This match has the potential to go to the limit, considering how well these two players have played in Melbourne. Badosa defeated Coco Gauff convincingly in their quarterfinal match, which speaks a lot about her caliber as a player. Sabalenka’s mental fortitude will be tested again in this tournament, though I doubt she will rise to the challenge. Our betting prediction for Aryna Sabalenka vs. Paula Badosa: Sabalenka will win 2-1.
Over 22.5 games.
And since I predict the match will go three sets, a lot of games will be played in this showdown. Sabalenka might be an overwhelming force of nature, but Badosa is a fighter who never quits easily. This combination of talent and character on the court usually paves the way for long rallies and, of course, tiebreakers. Our betting prediction for Aryna Sabalenka vs. Paula Badosa: Over 22.5 games.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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