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Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys Prediction & Picks - WTA Indian Wells
by Lou Aguila | in Tennis Picks
A rematch of the Australian Open women’s singles final, Aryna Sabalenka and Madison Keys rekindle their rivalry in what many expect to be an action-packed semifinal showdown at the 2025 Indian Wells Open on Friday.
Sabalenka sustained her impeccable form on Thursday, posting another straight-set win over Liudmila Samsonova 6-2, 6-3 in the quarterfinals. It was Sabalenka’s fourth consecutive straight-set win behind an aggressive offense that generated 24 points off the first serves and five breakpoint conversions. After conceding the Australian Open crown to Keys in a thrilling three-set duel, the world’s No.1 went through a mini-slump that saw her crashing out early in Qatar and Dubai. Through to her second career semis appearance at Indian Wells, Sabalenka’s chance at revenge couldn’t come sooner as she gets Keys as her semifinal foe.
After surviving two consecutive three-set matches against Elise Mertens and Donna Vekic, Keys delivered a masterful 6-1, 6-1 win over reigning Abu Dhabi Open champion Belinda Bencic to earn her first semifinal appearance at this WTA 1000 event. Keys stormed to 5-0 lead off the back of three service breaks to take the first set. She added two more breakpoint conversions while holding all his serves in the second frame to secure a lightning-fast win over Bencic.
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Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys Form
Aryna Sabalenka and Madison Keys Latest Matches
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
Mar 13, 2025 - WTA Indian Wells
Mar 12, 2025 - WTA Indian Wells
Mar 10, 2025 - WTA Indian Wells
Mar 8, 2025 - WTA Indian Wells
Feb 19, 2025 - WTA Dubai Tennis Championships
Feb 18, 2025 - WTA Dubai Tennis Championships
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
Mar 13, 2025 - WTA Indian Wells
Mar 12, 2025 - WTA Indian Wells
Mar 10, 2025 - WTA Indian Wells
Mar 8, 2025 - WTA Indian Wells
Jan 25, 2025 - WTA Australian Open
Jan 23, 2025 - WTA Australian Open
Aryna Sabalenka against Madison Keys : Head to Head (H2H)
75 %
25 %
Jan 25, 2025 - WTA Australian Open
Oct 1, 2024 - WTA China Open
Sep 7, 2023 - WTA US Open
Jul 12, 2023 - WTA Wimbledon Championships
Aryna Sabalenka - Madison Keys: Form Analysis
Aryna Sabalenka will march into the semifinal with an unblemished record, blasting McCartney Kessler 7-6(4) 6-3, Lucia Bronzetti 6-1 6-2, Sonay Kartal 6-1 6-2, and Samsonova 6-2 6-3 without yielding a set.
Sabalenka’s serves has been such a weapon in this tournament that these allowed her to hold 88 percent of his serves and win 99 points on the first serves.
Keys is also serving well, holding 83 percent of his serves while collecting 137 points off the first serves. Apart from her terrific stamina, another key to Madison’s recent success is her newly-found tough-as-nails mental game. Keys has been so composed and resilient this year that she is undefeated, 10-0, in matches that go the distance.
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Aryna Sabalenka & Madison Keys Squad Analysis
Losing the opportunity to complete a three-peat at the Australian Open bothered Aryna Sabalenka too much, and her form took a noticeable nose dive in Qatar and Dubai. Now that we are seeing Sabalenka playing like her old, dominant self, it’s going to be interesting to see how much she has improved mentally ahead of her much-awaited rematch with Keys.
With the help of a new strength and conditioning coach, former NFL player Rashard Langford, Madison Keys is enjoying a breakout year.
In three months, Keys has accomplished a lot with an injury-free body, winning her first Grand Slam title at the Australian Open and making her first semi-final appearance in Indian Wells. The lingering injury issues and mental breakdown that plagued her in the past seem to be foregone conclusions, as Keys has exhibited incredible endurance at age 30.
Aryna Sabalenka - Madison Keys Key Points
- Aryna Sabalenka defeated Liudmila Samsonova 6-2, 6-3 in the quarterfinal of the 2025 Indian Wells Open.
- Aryna Sabalenka has yet to drop a set at the 2025 Indian Wells Open.
- Madison Keys defeated Belinda Bencic 6-1, 6-1 in the quarterfinal of the 2025 Indian Wells Open.
- Madison Keys has won her last 11 matches and 15-1 in the 2025 WTA season.
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Our Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys Prediction
Sabalenka will always be a contender in hard-court tournaments until she's elite no more. At Indian Wells, she has proven that she needed one dominant win to return to playing like the world’s No.1 again. Sabalenka has patiently waited these last two months to face Keys and get her revenge. However, I don’t think she will get the vindication she craves on Friday because Keys will come out on top again. There’s no questioning Sabalenka’s elite-level shotmaking and other tangibles that made her the top dog in the women’s side. But tennis is not just a skill-based game. At the elite level, the game becomes 80 percent mental. Madison Keys won the Australian Open not by chance but because of the countless hours she spent sharpening her mental game and executing her game plan in the most crucial moments of a match. Sabalenka is good, really good. It is just that Keys has become a much better player under pressure, and most of the time, that makes all the difference. Our betting prediction for Aryna Sabalenka vs. Madison Keys: Madison Keys will win.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys - Other Interesting Picks
Madison Keys will win 2-1
Madison Keys is 10-0 in three-set matches this year. If Sabalenka wants to win this match, she better finish off Keys in two sets, or else she has virtually no chance of beating the Queen of three sets. And since I picked Keys to win, our betting prediction for Aryna Sabalenka vs. Madison Keys: Madison Keys will win 2-1.
Over 22.5 Games
Back Over 22.5 games because this rubber match will need a deciding set to determine a winner. 3 of the 6 games between Sabalenka and Keys went the distance, including the championship match at the 2025 Australian Open. Our betting prediction for Aryna Sabalenka vs. Madison Keys: Over 22.5 Games.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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