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Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys Prediction & Picks - WTA Australian Open
by Lou Aguila | in Tennis Picks
Madison Keys looks to set a date with destiny as she goes for her first Grand Slam title against reining champion Aryna Sabalenka on Saturday at the 2025 Australian Open. Keys delivered arguably the best performance of her career, besting former world’s No.1 Iga Swiatek 5-7 6-1 7-6(8) in a nail-biting semifinal showdown on Rod Laver Arena on Thursday. Coming into the match as the underdog, Keys rallied from a set down to outlast one of the Queens of women’s tennis in the post-Serena Williams era. Keys is set to play in her second career Grand Slam finals and first since the 2017 US Open, where she fell to Sloane Stephens 6-3, 6-0. Meanwhile, Sabalenka has an opportunity to become the first player since Martina Hingis to win three straight women’s singles titles at the Australian Open since Martina Hingis did the feat from 1997 to 1999. Sabalenka plagued her way to the championship match with a surgical 6-4 6-2 win over Paula Badosa of Spain in the semis.
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Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys Form
Aryna Sabalenka and Madison Keys Latest Matches
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Aryna Sabalenka against Madison Keys : Head to Head (H2H)
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Oct 2, 2024 - WTA China Open
Sep 7, 2023 - WTA US Open
Jul 12, 2023 - WTA Wimbledon Championships
Aryna Sabalenka - Madison Keys: Form Analysis
Saturday’s final will feature two players on a hot streak. Madison Keys has won her last 11 matches, racking up five wins to win the 2025 Adelaide International and six more to reach the finals. Keys has scored 28 aces while winning 68 percent of her first serves. She has also held serves at 78 percent and 4-for-4 in deciding sets.
Sabalenka, the 2025 Brisbane International champion, has also won her last 11 matches.
The Belarusian only has 8 aces but has won 67 percent of her first serves. She has also converted 30 of 60 break-point chances and held her serves at 73 percent.
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Aryna Sabalenka & Madison Keys Squad Analysis
Despite already playing in three three-set matches, Keys surprisingly had the stamina to outlast Swiatek in a physically demanding match. The 29-year-old American has now played 11 hours and 18 minutes in this Australian Open. She also admitted during the post-match interviews that she blacked out at one point in her semifinal showdown with Swiatek.
"Did she have a match point? I feel like I blacked out. At one point I was just out there running around,” Keys said.
Sabalenka has been in cruise control in Melbourne, logging on the court for 9 hours and 12 minutes – almost two hours shorter than that of Keys. She is in a tip-top condition and has shown no signs of fatigue this deep in the competition.
Aryna Sabalenka - Madison Keys Key Points
- Aryna Sabalenka defeated Paula Badosa 6-4, 6-2 in the semifinals.
- Aryna Sabalenka will try to win a third straight Australian Open title since Martina Hingis.
- Madison Keys defeated Iga Swiatek in the semifinals 5-7 6-1 7 6(8).
- Madison Keys will try to win her first Grand Slam title.
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Our Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys Prediction
It’s been almost four years since Madison Keys tasted a win over Aryna Sabalenka. However, it will be everybody’s ballgame once they step on the court on Saturday. Keys, the underdog, has a puncher’s chance of pulling off another upset. While Sabalenka has had a smooth sailing to the finals, dropping only one set, Keys is coming in battle-tested being the survivor of four three-set matches. Sabalenka might have the edge in almost every facet of this match-up, but Keys can pose a real danger to her reign should she allow this match to go the distance. After all, the American had just shut up her naysayers when she eliminated an in-form Swiatek, who looked poised to win the Australian Open after obliterating her side of the bracket. Our betting prediction for Madison Keys vs. Arena Sabalenka: Keys will win.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys - Other Interesting Picks
Madison Keys will cover +3.5 games.
Madison Keys’ impressive victory over Swiatek raises my hope that she can become the first American to win the Australian Open women’s singles title since Sofia Kenin. Sabalenka is the overwhelming favorite, but Keys’ fighting spirit has been unbelievable in this tournament. Sabalenka’s mantle of invincibility will wear down if Keys can drag her into a deciding set, where the American is 4-for-4. Our betting prediction for Madison Keys vs. Aryna Sabalenka: Madison Keys will cover +3.5 games.
Over 20.5 games.
Get your popcorn ready because this is going to be another lengthy match. Keys thrives in marathon matches, while Sabalenka would love to finish her opponent as quickly as possible. Holding serves will be the key for Madison to pull off an upset. Regardless of the outcome, I believe this match will go to the limit since both players are playing at a high level and are determined to put everything on the line for the coveted Australian Open title. Our betting prediction for Madison Keys vs. Aryna Sabalenka: Over 20.5 games.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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